Can Washington successfully pressure Beijing to join multilateral peace efforts?

Despite High Stakes in Ethiopia, China Sits on the Sidelines of Peace Efforts

Can Washington successfully pressure Beijing to join multilateral peace efforts?

Wednesday, January 19, 2022/ 

BY: Joseph Sany, Ph.D.;  Thomas P. Sheehy

PUBLICATION TYPE: 

Analysis and Commentary

Since November of 2020, Ethiopia has been suffering from a deadly internal conflict that has claimed an estimated 50,000 lives and displaced over two million. The United States, the African Union and others in the region have attempted to secure a cease-fire between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) but have made little headway. In contrast, China has remained mainly on the sidelines of peacebuilding efforts even though Ethiopia — the second most populous country in Africa — is a centerpiece of its Africa policy. 

The scale and pace of the crisis now requires international cooperation, not competition. The political and financial burden of delivering a solution cannot be borne by any one country alone. Washington should, as a priority, explore how Beijing might join a coordinated international effort to back an African diplomatic push for a sustained settlement of the Ethiopian crisis before its humanitarian crisis worsens and further destabilizes the region. China may instead take satisfaction in the perceived failure of U.S. diplomatic efforts and the growing tension between Washington and Addis Ababa — but such a posture threatens China’s considerable investment in Ethiopia and risks alienating Africans who resent great power rivalries playing out in their countries.            

Ethiopia’s Profound Crisis

Upon taking office in 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed liberalized the authoritarian Ethiopian government that the TPLF had dominated since 1991. His actions included lifting a ban on political parties and freeing political prisoners. Abiy was also awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts to end the protracted conflict between Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea. Despite these positive developments, the Abiy government was met with criticism for centralizing power at the expense of Tigray and other regions. Long-standing regional and ethnic divisions — that Abiy’s reforms allowed greater expression for — were intensified by a postponement of the 2020 national elections amid COVID-19.

Tensions had been building in recent years, with the Abiy government seeing the TPLF as pushing for greater regional autonomy — if not independence — and the Tigrayans charging the Abiy government with politically marginalizing the province, which no longer enjoyed the spoils of power. The Tigrayans defied Abiy’s election delay and held regional polls in September 2020. Two months later, large-scale fighting erupted between the Ethiopian federal military and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) when Tigrayan fighters struck a federal military base in an act they claimed was preemptive.

Today, the government and TPLF are dug in and shunning dialogue — with dire humanitarian consequences. The TPLF has allied with other anti-government groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army, though recent military setbacks have led it to call for a cease-fire. A federal government blockade has prevented food and medicine from reaching Tigray, jeopardizing lives. Horrific human rights abuses are commonplace, some of which “may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity,” according to the United Nations. The U.N. Security Council has called for a cease-fire, while the African Union has enlisted former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to broker talks. Yet so far, little diplomatic progress has been made.

China’s Deep Ties

Ethiopia is a central hub for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, an evolving program to expand Chinese influence by financing and building infrastructure throughout the developing world.  Currently, there are about 400 Chinese construction and manufacturing projects in Ethiopia, valued at over $4 billion. Much of Ethiopia’s air, road and rail infrastructure is financed and built by the Chinese.

This strong Chinese economic engagement has resulted in Beijing becoming Ethiopia’s top trading partner. Before COVID-19, the Ethiopian economy had been impressively growing at 10 percent for over a decade, affirming China’s high standing as a development partner. However, concerns exist about the sustainability of Ethiopia’s estimated $13.7 billion of Chinese debt, second only to Angola’s in Africa. This debt liability further heightens China’s stake in Ethiopia.     

Political ties between the two countries are strong as well. Ethiopia was the first African country to host a Forum on China-Africa Cooperation meeting, held in 2003. In 2012, China funded and built the $200 million African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa. Meanwhile, Chinese media have expanded their presence in Ethiopia. 

China and Ethiopia have also built upon a 2005 defense agreement on joint training, technology exchange and peacekeeping operations. Ethiopian officers have trained in China. While most of its heavy weapons are Russian or Ukrainian made, the Ethiopian military has recently procured Chinese artillery and transport vehicles. Moreover, government forces are believed to be using Chinese-supplied drones. Chinese economic, political and security efforts appear to have paid off, with Abiy describing China as “the most reliable friend and the most cherished partner of Ethiopia.”     

China’s Dilemma: Backing the Government, Calling for Non-Interference

In keeping with its long-standing claim of “non-interference,” Beijing has resisted aggressive international engagement in Ethiopia. Its ambassador to the United Nations said in November 2021 that “solutions can only be found from within,” reiterating “support for African solutions to solve African problems,” including by regional countries and organizations. Ambassador Zhang Jun cautioned the U.N. Security Council “to provide necessary time and space to the African Union to carry out such efforts,” while noting that humanitarian relief efforts must respect Ethiopia’s “sovereignty and leadership,” a position China has stressed since the conflict began. The Chinese emissary also spoke out against imposing economic sanctions against Ethiopia. 

China undoubtedly is keeping close watch on the spreading insecurity, with an estimated 30,000 Chinese nationals in Ethiopia. With its major Ethiopian investment portfolio now on pause, partly because of the conflict, China’s belief that “without security and stability, there can be no development” is being validated. But how to contribute to security and stability without interference in a complex political and ethnic context is becoming a challenging dilemma for China.

Despite the escalating violence, the U.N. Security Council has been slow in addressing this crisis, largely because of China’s traditional sovereignty concerns. Ethiopia has welcomed Beijing’s position, with its foreign ministry recently commending China for recognizing that “external power involvement in the Ethiopian government operation in Tigray is unnecessary since Ethiopia is capable of solving its own problems.”  

U.S. diplomatic efforts, however, have irritated Ethiopia. The U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa recently said the Biden administration is “work[ing] tirelessly to keep this crisis on the international agenda,” including at the United Nations. In response to the Abiy government’s “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights” in Tigray, the United States recently withdrew trade benefits that Ethiopia desired to maintain and U.S. sanctions targeting complicit Ethiopian government officials have been authorized. Abiy refused to meet with USAID Administrator Samantha Power during her recent visit to Ethiopia to address the humanitarian crisis in Tigray, a sign that strains in the U.S.- Ethiopia relationship are growing as this crisis intensifies.      

Strategic Rivalry or Diplomacy?

There is the potential for the United States to strategically fail in Ethiopia. Until the recent strains, and despite China’s growing imprint on the country, the United States and Ethiopia have long been close economic and security partners. And while Washington hasn’t led diplomatic efforts to resolve this crisis, it has been a significant player. As relations between Ethiopia and the United States continue to fray, with Ethiopia likely turning to China for greater support, Beijing can be expected to feel that it is scoring points in its strategic rivalry with the United States. 

A 2020 USIP report on China’s engagement in the Red Sea region found that, “Although instability has benefitted China in some ways by feeding a narrative of U.S. strategic failure, Beijing has a greater interest in a stable region free of failed states.” However, it also concluded that “short of situations in which Chinese economic or security interests are severely threatened … Beijing is unlikely to use its influence to prevent regional rivalries from exacerbating conflicts in the arena.” Instead, Beijing would practice a policy of “detachment.”       

But China arguably has more at stake in Ethiopia than in any other country in Africa. Ethiopia is on a path that would certainly damage substantial Chinese economic interests both within the country and beyond its borders. Some have suggested that China will continue making every effort to support the Abiy government, including by defending Addis Ababa’s sovereignty in the face of human rights abuse charges. Could Beijing be pressured to go beyond its relative detachment to play a positive diplomatic role?

All Powers and Players Are Needed for Peace

U.S. diplomacy is struggling for a reason. Were China to pivot to active diplomacy by engaging with the TPLF, or even use political capital to pressure the Abiy government, it would find a very challenging task ahead. Growing violence, including against civilians, is worsening Ethiopia’s deep ethnic and regional divisions. U.S. concerns over growing Chinese influence in Africa rightly touch upon key issues of governance, human rights and economic and strategic competition. But while Chinese influence in Africa has expanded significantly over the last two decades, it has its limits. Despite its considerable investments, China acting alone is powerless to stop the forces of disunity and violence that gravely threaten Ethiopia. 

Forging peace in Ethiopia will require the negotiation and implementation of new political arrangements that strike a workable regional power balance. This is mainly for Ethiopians to decide — but outside parties could incentivize the compromises needed for peace. There is now an opportunity to shift course and consolidate an international approach. Prime Minister Abiy has indicated a willingness to support dialogue and has released some key — but not all — political prisoners. The Tigrayan government has announced the withdrawal of its forces back to Tigray and has called for negotiations. The international community — everyone, not just the West — surely acknowledges that Ethiopia’s economic sustainability is key to regional stability and the survival of Ethiopia as a sovereign entity. A concerted effort by external stakeholders, including China, is crucial at this time.

The Biden administration should recognize China’s economic vulnerability and stake in stability in Ethiopia as it implements its diplomatic efforts. The United States should aim to forge African Union pressure on China to encourage the Abiy government, now with the military upper hand, to pursue meaningful negotiations and a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Chinese efforts could come behind the scenes so as not to spoil Beijing’s “non-interference” posture.   

It is possible, even likely, that Beijing is uninterested in constructive, African-led diplomacy in Ethiopia and would rather position itself to see diplomatic efforts fail, maybe picking up some pieces from U.S. economic disengagement. But if Beijing won’t constructively engage in Ethiopia, given its high stakes there, where would they work for peace in Africa? Every day of conflict sees many Ethiopian lives tragically lost — will Beijing be part of an African solution or allow an African crisis to continue?

USIP.

ዋሽንግተን ቤጂንግ የባለብዙ ወገን የሰላም ጥረቶችን እንድትቀላቀል በተሳካ ሁኔታ መጫን ትችላለች? ረቡዕ ጥር 19 ቀን 2022/ በ: ጆሴፍ ሳን, ፒኤች.ዲ.; ቶማስ ፒ. ሺሂ

ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ከፍተኛ ድርሻ ቢኖራትም ቻይና ከሰላም ጥረት ጎን ተቀምጣለች።

 ዋሽንግተን ቤጂንግ የባለብዙ ወገን የሰላም ጥረቶችን እንድትቀላቀል በተሳካ ሁኔታ መጫን ትችላለች?

 ረቡዕ ጥር 19 ቀን 2022/

 በ: ጆሴፍ ሳን, ፒኤች.ዲ.;  ቶማስ ፒ. ሺሂ

 የህትመት አይነት፡-

 ትንታኔ እና አስተያየት

 እ.ኤ.አ. ከህዳር 2020 ጀምሮ ኢትዮጵያ ወደ 50,000 የሚገመቱ ሰዎች ህይወት የቀጠፈ እና ከሁለት ሚሊዮን በላይ የሚገመተውን መፈናቀልን ባደረገ ገዳይ የውስጥ ግጭት ስትሰቃይ ቆይታለች።  ዩናይትድ ስቴትስ፣ የአፍሪካ ህብረት እና ሌሎች በክልሉ የሚገኙ በፌዴራል መንግስት እና በህዝባዊ ወያነ ሓርነት ትግራይ (ህወሀት) መካከል የተኩስ አቁም ስምምነት ለማድረግ ቢሞክሩም ብዙም ርቀት አልሄዱም።  በአንፃሩ ቻይና ከሰላም ግንባታው ጎን ሆና ቆይታለች ምንም እንኳን በአፍሪካ በሕዝብ ብዛት ሁለተኛ የሆነችው ኢትዮጵያ የአፍሪካ ፖሊሲዋ ማዕከል ብትሆንም።

 የቀውሱ መጠንና ፍጥነት ዓለም አቀፍ ትብብርን እንጂ ፉክክርን አይፈልግም።  የመፍትሄ ሃሳቦችን የማቅረብ ፖለቲካዊ እና ፋይናንሺያል ሸክም በአንድ ሀገር ብቻ ሊሸከም አይችልም።  ዋሽንግተን እንደ ቅድሚያ ቤጂንግ የአፍሪካ ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ግፊትን በመደገፍ የኢትዮጵያን ችግር በዘላቂነት ለመፍታት የምታደርገውን ጥረት ሰብዓዊ ቀውሱ ተባብሶ ቀጣናውን የበለጠ አለመረጋጋትን ከማስከተሉ በፊት እንዴት ልትቀላቀል እንደምትችል ማሰስ አለባት።  ቻይና በምትኩ የዩኤስ ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ጥረቶች ውድቀት እና በዋሽንግተን እና በአዲስ አበባ መካከል ያለው ውጥረት እየጨመረ በመምጣቱ እርካታ ሊወስድ ይችላል - ነገር ግን እንዲህ ዓይነቱ አቀማመጥ ቻይና በኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ የምታደርገውን ከፍተኛ ኢንቨስትመንት ስጋት ላይ ይጥላል እና በአገራቸው ውስጥ ታላቅ የስልጣን ፉክክር የሚቃወሙትን አፍሪካውያንን ያጋጫል።

 የኢትዮጵያ ጥልቅ ቀውስ

 እ.ኤ.አ. በ2018 ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትር አብይ አህመድ በህወሓት የበላይነት ይመራ የነበረውን የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ነፃ አውጥተው ነፃ አውጥተው ነበር ።እርምጃዎቹ በፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ላይ የተጣለውን እገዳ ማንሳት እና የፖለቲካ እስረኞችን መፍታት ይገኙበታል።  አቢይ በ2019 የኖቤል የሰላም ሽልማት የተሸለመው በኢትዮጵያ እና በጎረቤት ኤርትራ መካከል ያለውን የተራዘመ ግጭት ለማስቆም ባደረጉት ጥረት ነው።  እነዚህ አወንታዊ ለውጦች ቢኖሩም የአብይ መንግስት ትግራይን እና ሌሎች ክልሎችን በማውጣት ስልጣኑን ያማከለ ነው በሚል ወቀሳ ደርሶበታል።  የረዥም ጊዜ የክልሎች እና የጎሳ ክፍፍሎች - የአብይ ማሻሻያዎች የበለጠ መግለጫዎችን የሚፈቅዱ - በ 2020 ብሔራዊ ምርጫ በ COVID-19 መካከል መራዘሙ ተባብሷል ።

 ከቅርብ አመታት ወዲህ ውጥረቱ እየገነነ የመጣ ሲሆን የአብይ መንግስት ህወሀትን እንደ ትልቅ ክልላዊ የራስ ገዝ አስተዳደር ሲመለከት - ነጻ ካልሆነ - እና የትግራይ ተወላጆች የአብይ መንግስትን ግዛቱን በፖለቲካ ማግለል ሲከሰሱ ይህም የስልጣን ምርኮውን አያገኝም።  የትግራይ ተወላጆች የአብይን ምርጫ መዘግየት በመቃወም በሴፕቴምበር 2020 የክልል ምርጫዎችን አካሂደዋል።ከሁለት ወራት በኋላ በኢትዮጵያ ፌደራል ወታደራዊ ሃይል እና በትግራይ መከላከያ ሰራዊት መካከል መጠነ ሰፊ ጦርነት ተካሂዶ የትግራይ ተወላጆች የፌደራል ወታደራዊ ካምፕን በመምታታቸው ነው ብለው በወሰዱት እርምጃ።  ቅድመ ሁኔታ.

 ዛሬ መንግስትና ህወሓት ተቆፍረዋል እና ውይይትን እየሸሸጉ ነው - አስከፊ ሰብአዊ መዘዞት።  ህወሀት የኦሮሞ ነጻነት ሰራዊትን ጨምሮ ከሌሎች ፀረ-መንግስት ቡድኖች ጋር ተባብሯል፣ ምንም እንኳን ከቅርብ ጊዜ ወዲህ ያጋጠመው ወታደራዊ ውድቀት የተኩስ አቁም ጥሪ እንዲያቀርብ አድርጎታል።  የፌደራል መንግስት በወሰደው እርምጃ ምግብና መድሀኒት ወደ ትግራይ እንዳይደርስ በመከልከሉ ህይወትን አደጋ ላይ ጥሏል።  የተባበሩት መንግስታት ድርጅት እንደገለጸው ዘግናኝ የሰብአዊ መብት ረገጣዎች የተለመዱ ናቸው፤ ከእነዚህም ውስጥ አንዳንዶቹ “የጦርነት ወንጀል እና በሰብአዊነት ላይ የተፈጸሙ ወንጀሎች ሊሆኑ ይችላሉ።  የተባበሩት መንግስታት የፀጥታው ምክር ቤት የተኩስ አቁም ጥሪ ሲያቀርብ፣ የአፍሪካ ህብረት ደግሞ የቀድሞ የናይጄሪያን ፕሬዝዳንት ኦሉሴጉን ኦባሳንጆን ድርድር እንዲያደርጉ መጥራቱ ይታወሳል።  እስካሁን ድረስ ትንሽ ዲፕሎማሲያዊ እድገት አልተገኘም።

 የቻይና ጥልቅ ትስስር

 ኢትዮጵያ የቻይና ቤልት ኤንድ ሮድ ኢኒሼቲቭ ማዕከላዊ ማዕከል ነች፣ የቻይናን ተፅእኖ በገንዘብ በመደገፍ እና በመሠረተ ልማት ግንባታ ለማስፋፋት በማደግ ላይ ያለ ፕሮግራም።  በአሁኑ ወቅት በኢትዮጵያ ከ4 ቢሊዮን ዶላር በላይ ዋጋ ያላቸው 400 የሚጠጉ የቻይና የግንባታ እና የማምረቻ ፕሮጀክቶች አሉ።  አብዛኛው የኢትዮጵያ አየር፣መንገድ እና የባቡር መሠረተ ልማት በቻይናውያን የሚሸፈን እና የሚገነባ ነው።

 ይህ ጠንካራ የቻይና ኢኮኖሚያዊ ተሳትፎ ቤጂንግ የኢትዮጵያ ከፍተኛ የንግድ አጋር እንድትሆን አድርጓታል።  ከኮቪድ-19 በፊት፣ የኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚ በአስደናቂ ሁኔታ በ10 በመቶ እያደገ ከአስር አመታት በላይ ያስቆጠረ ሲሆን ይህም ቻይና በልማት አጋርነት ያላትን ከፍተኛ አቋም አረጋግጧል።  ነገር ግን የኢትዮጵያ 13.7 ቢሊዮን ዶላር የሚገመተው የቻይና ዕዳ ዘላቂነት ላይ ስጋት አለ፣ ከአፍሪካ ከአንጎላ ቀጥሎ ሁለተኛ።  ይህ የዕዳ ተጠያቂነት ቻይና በኢትዮጵያ ያላትን ድርሻ የበለጠ ከፍ ያደርገዋል።

 በሁለቱ ሀገራት መካከል ያለው ፖለቲካዊ ግንኙነትም ጠንካራ ነው።  እ.ኤ.አ. በ2003 የተካሄደውን የቻይና አፍሪካ የትብብር መድረክን በማዘጋጀት የመጀመሪያዋ አፍሪካዊት ሀገር ነች። በ2012 ቻይና በ200 ሚሊዮን ዶላር የአፍሪካ ህብረት ዋና መስሪያ ቤት በአዲስ አበባ ገነባች።  ይህ በእንዲህ እንዳለ የቻይና መገናኛ ብዙሀን በኢትዮጵያ ያላቸውን ቆይታ አስፋፍተዋል።

 ቻይና እና ኢትዮጵያ በ2005 በጋራ የስልጠና፣ የቴክኖሎጂ ልውውጥ እና የሰላም ማስከበር ስራዎች ላይ የተደረሰውን የመከላከያ ስምምነት መገንባታቸው ይታወሳል።  ኢትዮጵያውያን መኮንኖች በቻይና ሰልጥነዋል።  አብዛኛው ከባድ የጦር መሳሪያዎቹ ሩሲያዊ ወይም ዩክሬን ሲሆኑ፣ የኢትዮጵያ ጦር በቅርቡ የቻይና መድፍ እና ማጓጓዣ ተሽከርካሪዎችን ገዝቷል።  ከዚህም በላይ የመንግስት ሃይሎች በቻይና የቀረቡ ሰው አልባ አውሮፕላኖችን እንደሚጠቀሙ ተሰምቷል።  የቻይና የኢኮኖሚ፣ የፖለቲካ እና የጸጥታ ጥረቶች ውጤት ያመጡ ይመስላል፤ አብይ ቻይናን “በጣም ታማኝ ወዳጅ እና እጅግ የምትወደድ የኢትዮጵያ አጋር” ሲል ገልጿል።

 የቻይና አጣብቂኝ፡ መንግሥትን መደገፍ፣ ጣልቃ አለመግባት መጥራት

 ቤጂንግ ለረጅም ጊዜ ሲዘልቅ የቆየውን “ጣልቃ አልገባም” የሚለውን አባባል በመከተል በኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ያለውን ጠብ አጫሪ ዓለም አቀፍ ተሳትፎ ተቋቁማለች።  በተባበሩት መንግስታት ድርጅት አምባሳደሯ በህዳር 2021 “መፍትሄዎች የሚገኘው ከውስጥ ብቻ ነው” ሲሉ የክልላዊ ሀገራትን እና ድርጅቶችን ጨምሮ “የአፍሪካን ችግሮች ለመፍታት ለአፍሪካ መፍትሄዎች ድጋፍ” ደጋግመው ተናግረዋል ።  አምባሳደር ዣንግ ጁን የተባበሩት መንግስታት ድርጅት የፀጥታው ምክር ቤት “ለአፍሪካ ህብረት አስፈላጊውን ጊዜና ቦታ እንዲሰጥ” ሲያስጠነቅቁ የሰብአዊ እርዳታ ስራዎች የኢትዮጵያን “ሉዓላዊነት እና አመራር” ማክበር አለባቸው ሲሉ ቻይና አፅንዖት ሰጥታለች ግጭቱ ከጀመረበት ጊዜ አንስቶ  .  የቻይናው ተላላኪም በኢትዮጵያ ላይ የኢኮኖሚ ማዕቀብ መጣሉን ተናግሯል።

 ቻይና ያለምንም ጥርጥር እየተስፋፋ ያለውን የጸጥታ ችግር በቅርበት እየተከታተለች ሲሆን፥ በግምት 30,000 የሚሆኑ የቻይና ዜጎች በኢትዮጵያ ይገኛሉ።  ዋናው የኢትዮጵያ የኢንቨስትመንት ፖርትፎሊዮ አሁን ባለበት በቆመበት፣ በከፊል በግጭቱ ምክንያት፣ ቻይና “ያለ ደኅንነት እና መረጋጋት ልማት የለም” የሚል እምነት እየተረጋገጠ ነው።  ነገር ግን ውስብስብ በሆነ የፖለቲካ እና የጎሳ አውድ ውስጥ ጣልቃ ሳይገባ ለደህንነት እና መረጋጋት አስተዋፅኦ ማድረግ ለቻይና ፈታኝ ችግር እየሆነ መጥቷል።

 ብጥብጡ እየተባባሰ ቢመጣም የዩኤን የፀጥታው ምክር ቤት ይህንን ችግር ለመፍታት ቀርፋፋ ነው፣በዋነኛነት በቻይና ባህላዊ የሉዓላዊነት ስጋቶች።  ኢትዮጵያ የቤጂንግን አቋም በደስታ ተቀበለች፣ የውጭ ጉዳይ ሚኒስቴሩ ቻይና በቅርቡ “ኢትዮጵያ የራሷን ችግሮች መፍታት ስለምትችል በኢትዮጵያ መንግስት እንቅስቃሴ ውስጥ የውጭ ሃይል ተሳትፎ አስፈላጊ እንዳልሆነ” በመገንዘቧ አመስግኗል።

 የአሜሪካ ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ጥረት ግን ኢትዮጵያን አበሳጭቷታል።  የዩናይትድ ስቴትስ የአፍሪካ ቀንድ ልዩ መልዕክተኛ የቢደን አስተዳደር የተባበሩት መንግስታት ድርጅትን ጨምሮ “ይህን ቀውስ በአለምአቀፍ አጀንዳ ለማስቀጠል ሳትታክት እየሰራ ነው” ብለዋል።  የአብይ መንግስት በትግራይ ለሚፈጽመው "ዓለም አቀፍ እውቅና ያለው ከፍተኛ የሰብአዊ መብት ጥሰት" ምላሽ ለመስጠት፣ ዩናይትድ ስቴትስ በቅርቡ ኢትዮጵያ ለማቆየት የምትፈልገውን የንግድ ጥቅማጥቅሞችን በማውጣት እና ተባባሪ በሆኑ የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ባለስልጣናት ላይ ያነጣጠረ የአሜሪካ ማዕቀብ ተፈቅዶለታል።  ዶ/ር አብይ በትግራይ ያለውን ሰብአዊ ቀውስ ለመፍታት በቅርቡ ወደ ኢትዮጵያ ባደረጉት ጉብኝት ከዩኤስኤአይዲ አስተዳዳሪ ሳማንታ ፓወር ጋር ለመገናኘት ፈቃደኛ አልሆኑም ።ይህ ቀውስ እየጨመረ በመምጣቱ በአሜሪካ እና በኢትዮጵያ ግንኙነት ላይ ውጥረት እየጨመረ መምጣቱን ያሳያል ።

 ስትራተጂያዊ ፉክክር ወይስ ዲፕሎማሲ?

 ዩናይትድ ስቴትስ ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ስትራቴጅያዊ ውድቀት ልትፈጥር የምትችልበት ዕድል አለ።  እስከቅርብ ጊዜዎቹ ችግሮች፣ እና ቻይና በሀገሪቱ ላይ እያደገች ያለች ቢሆንም፣ ዩናይትድ ስቴትስ እና ኢትዮጵያ የረጅም ጊዜ የኢኮኖሚ እና የጸጥታ አጋሮች ናቸው።  እና ዋሽንግተን ይህን ቀውስ ለመፍታት ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ጥረቶችን ባይመራም, ጉልህ ተጫዋች ነበር.  የኢትዮጵያ እና የዩናይትድ ስቴትስ ግንኙነት እየሻከረ ባለበት በአሁኑ ወቅት ኢትዮጵያ ለበለጠ ድጋፍ ወደ ቻይና ዞር ብላ እንደምትቀጥል ቤጂንግ ከአሜሪካ ጋር ባላት ስልታዊ ፉክክር ነጥብ እያስመዘገበች እንደሆነ ሊሰማት ይችላል።

 የ2020 USIP ሪፖርት በቻይና በቀይ ባህር አካባቢ ያላትን ተሳትፎ አስመልክቶ “ምንም እንኳን አለመረጋጋት የዩኤስ ስትራቴጂካዊ ውድቀትን ትረካ በመመገብ ቻይናን በአንዳንድ መንገዶች የጠቀማት ቢሆንም ቤጂንግ ከወደቁ መንግስታት የጸዳ የተረጋጋ ክልል ላይ የበለጠ ፍላጎት አላት።  ሆኖም፣ “የቻይና ኢኮኖሚ ወይም የፀጥታ ፍላጎት በከፍተኛ ሁኔታ የተጋረጠባቸው አጫጭር ሁኔታዎች… ቤጂንግ ክልላዊ ፉክክር በመድረኩ ውስጥ ግጭቶችን እንዳያባብስ ተጽዕኖዋን ልትጠቀም አትችልም” ሲል ደምድሟል።  በምትኩ ቤጂንግ “የማግለል” ፖሊሲን ትለማመዳለች።

 ቻይና ግን በኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ከየትኛውም የአፍሪካ ሀገር የበለጠ ስጋት አለባት ማለት ይቻላል።  ኢትዮጵያ በአገሪቷ ውስጥም ሆነ ከድንበሮቿ ባሻገር ተጨባጭ የቻይና ኢኮኖሚያዊ ጥቅሞችን በሚያበላሽ ጎዳና ላይ ትገኛለች።  አንዳንዶች ቻይና የአቢይ መንግስትን ለመደገፍ የምታደርገውን ጥረት እንደምትቀጥል ጠቁመዋል።  ቤጂንግ ከአንፃራዊነት ተለያይታ እንድትሄድ ጫና ሊደረግባት ይችላል ወይ? አዎንታዊ ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ሚና እንድትጫወት?

 ሁሉም ሃይሎች እና ተጫዋቾች ለሰላም ያስፈልጋሉ።

 የአሜሪካ ዲፕሎማሲ በምክንያት እየታገለ ነው።  ቻይና ከህወሀት ጋር በመተባበር ወደ ንቁ ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ስራ ብትሰራ ወይም የፖለቲካ ካፒታል ተጠቅማ የአብይ መንግስት ላይ ጫና ብታደርግ ኖሮ ከፊት ለፊቷ በጣም ፈታኝ ስራ ይጠብቃታል።  በሰላማዊ ዜጎች ላይ ጨምሮ እያደገ የመጣው ጥቃት የኢትዮጵያን የጎሳ እና የክልል መከፋፈል እያባባሰ ነው።  በአፍሪካ እያደገ የመጣው የቻይና ተጽእኖ የአሜሪካ ስጋት የአስተዳደር፣ የሰብአዊ መብቶች እና የኢኮኖሚ እና የስትራቴጂክ ውድድር ጉዳዮችን በትክክል ይነካል።  ነገር ግን የቻይና ተጽእኖ ባለፉት ሁለት አስርት ዓመታት በአፍሪካ ውስጥ በከፍተኛ ሁኔታ እየሰፋ ቢሄድም, ግን ገደብ አለው.  ብዙ ኢንቨስትመንቶች ቢኖሯትም ቻይና ብቻዋን የምትሰራው ኢትዮጵያን በከፍተኛ ሁኔታ የሚያሰጉትን የአንድነት እና የብጥብጥ ኃይሎች ለማስቆም አቅም የላትም።

 የኢትዮጵያን ሰላም ለማስፈን ድርድር እና ተግባራዊ ሊሆን የሚችል ክልላዊ የሃይል ሚዛን የሚደፉ አዳዲስ የፖለቲካ ዝግጅቶችን መተግበር ይጠይቃል።  ይህ በዋናነት ኢትዮጵያውያን እንዲወስኑ ነው - ነገር ግን የውጭ ወገኖች ለሰላም የሚያስፈልጉትን ድርድር ሊያበረታቱ ይችላሉ።  አሁን ኮርሱን ለመቀየር እና ዓለም አቀፍ አቀራረብን ለማጠናከር እድሉ አለ.  ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትር አብይ ውይይቱን ለመደገፍ ፈቃደኛ መሆናቸውን ጠቁመው አንዳንድ ቁልፍ - ግን ሁሉንም አይደሉም - የፖለቲካ እስረኞችን ለቋል።  የትግራይ መንግስት ወታደሮቹ ወደ ትግራይ መውጣታቸውን አስታውቆ ድርድር እንዲደረግ ጠይቋል።  ዓለም አቀፉ ማህበረሰብ - ምዕራባውያን ብቻ ሳይሆኑ ሁሉም ሰው - በእርግጠኝነት የኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚ ዘላቂነት ለቀጣናዊ መረጋጋት እና ለኢትዮጵያ እንደ ሉዓላዊ አካል ህልውና ቁልፍ መሆኑን አምኗል።  በዚህ ወቅት ቻይናን ጨምሮ የውጭ ባለድርሻ አካላት የተቀናጀ ጥረት ወሳኝ ነው።

 የቢደን አስተዳደር ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ጥረቱን በሚተገበርበት ጊዜ የቻይናን ኢኮኖሚያዊ ተጋላጭነት እና የመረጋጋት ድርሻ ሊገነዘብ ይገባል።  ዩናይትድ ስቴትስ በቻይና ላይ የአፍሪካ ኅብረት ጫና በመፍጠር የአብይ መንግሥት በጦር ኃይሎች የበላይ ሆኖ፣ ትርጉም ያለው ድርድር እንዲከተልና ግጭቱን በሰላማዊ መንገድ እንዲፈታ ለማበረታታት ዓላማ ማድረግ አለባት።  የቤጂንግን "ጣልቃ-አልባ" አቀማመጥ እንዳያበላሹ የቻይናውያን ጥረቶች ከጀርባው ሊመጡ ይችላሉ.

 ምናልባትም ቤጂንግ በኢትዮጵያ ገንቢ አፍሪካዊ ዲፕሎማሲ ላይ ፍላጎት የሌላት እና ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ጥረቶች ሲከሽፉ ለማየት እራሷን ትመርጣለች ምናልባትም ከአሜሪካ የኢኮኖሚ ውድቀት የተወሰኑ ቁርጥራጮችን እንደምትወስድ መገመት ይቻላል ።  ነገር ግን ቤጂንግ በኢትዮጵያ ካላት ከፍተኛ ድርሻ አንፃር ገንቢ በሆነ መልኩ ካልተሰማራ ለአፍሪካ ሰላም የት ይሰራሉ?  በየእለቱ ግጭት የበርካታ ኢትዮጵያውያን ህይወት በአሳዛኝ ሁኔታ ሲጠፋ ይታያል - ቤጂንግ የአፍሪካ መፍትሄ አካል ትሆናለች ወይስ የአፍሪካ ቀውስ እንዲቀጥል ትፈቅዳለች?

 USIP

The Catastrophic atrocities in Tigray

 

No one has documented the catastrophic atrocities in Tigray more diligently or thoroughly than Professor Jan Nyssen. In his latest report he says “Mothers are giving birth in the streets”. This appalling man made tragedy is an international disgrace whose authors should be tried for war crimes and worse at The Hague.

May 31, 2021 | Uncategorized

The catastrophic humanitarian situation in Tigray is now (finally) making headlines in international media (section 1). Besides international reactions that become stronger (section 2), we will also give some insights into how the Tigray people are trying to resist to what Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers call “our season” (section 3). And still, the Ethiopian authorities are attempting to get away with it, using various tactics (section 4). We conclude our newsletter with a digest of press publications (many of them translated from French, Dutch or German – section 5).

Professor Nyssen’s latest summary:

Humanitarian disaster 

The humanitarian situation in Tigray is catastrophic. Besides massacres and rape that are widely used as a weapon of war, one third of the population has been chased from their residential place, what is euphemistically referred to as “IDP” (internally displaced people). Mothers are giving birth in the streets:

The FEWSNET briefing of 17 May 2021 used the following words:

 “this reduction in household access to cash income has resulted in a widespread food security Emergency in the region and has likely led to even more severe consumption gaps for worst-affected households.” This can be decoded to mean that there is not just phase 4 (Emergency) over most of the region, but also phase 5 (Famine) pockets in Tigray. There are now a large number of media reports on these dire conditions:

The Times, 31 May: Civilians killed in Tigray war identified but thousands remainNational Geographic, 28 May: A grave humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Ethiopia. ‘I never saw hell before, but now I have.’The Times, 28 May: Ethiopian hospitals trashed by soldiers as Tigray fighting escalatesUN News, 28 May: Grave concerns over ‘dire’ and deteriorating situation in war-torn Tigray regionAssociated Press, 28 May: ‘Our season’: Eritrean troops kill, rape, loot in TigrayARD Weltspiegel, 27 May: A German TV travels through a war zone: Tigray, not arriving at peace. See the half hour TV report and English summaryAFP, 27 May: Displaced Tigrayans accuse soldiers of torture, ‘murder’: documentNew York Times, 26 May: Famine Looms in Ethiopia’s War-Ravaged Tigray Region, U.N. SaysRadio France internationale, 26 May: Tigré: un massacre commis par des soldats érythréens à Goda [in French] – English translation: Tigray: a massacre committed by Eritrean soldiers in GodaThe Telegraph, 24 May: Exclusive: Ethiopians suffer horrific burns in suspected white phosphorus attacksRadio France internationale, 21 May: Au Tigré, les agriculteurs sont les premières victimes d’un conflit qui dure [in French] – English translation: In Tigray, the farmers are the first victims of a conflict that is lasting·       

  NOS, 20 May: Deur staat voor buitenwereld nog maar op een kier in Ethiopische deelstaat Tigray [in Dutch] – English translation: Door is only ajar for outside world in Ethiopian state of TigrayUN OCHA, 20 May: Ethiopia – Tigray Region Humanitarian UpdateAFP, 19 May: Ethiopian Troops Search Hospital For Enemy ‘Soldiers’: DoctorsAl Jazeera, 18 May: ‘No food for days’: Starvation stalks Tigray as war drags onAFP, 17 May: Situation in Ethiopia’s Tigray ‘horrific’: 

WHO chiefMSF, 17 May: Photostory: Reaching the forgotten communities of the Tigray crisisNCR, 17 May: Local priest: Atrocities still occurring in Ethiopia’s Tigray regionRFI, 17 May: Ethiopie : les habitants de Tuhuli, dans le Tigré, racontent l’enfer [in French] – English translation: Ethiopia: The people of Tuhuli, in Tigray, tell the story of hellEU observer, 17 May: EU: Over 5 million people risk ‘starvation’ in EthiopiaTagesspiegel, 16 May: Patriarch warnt vor „Völkermord“ in Tigray [in German]CNN, 15 May: US condemns ‘atrocities’ in Tigray and calls for those responsible to be ‘held to account’ after CNN investigationRadio France internationale, 12 May: Éthiopie: avec les déplacés du Tigré, naufragés à Mekele [in French]RFI, 10 May: Éthiopie: au Tigré, une Pâques orthodoxe entre fête, tristesse et deuil [in French] – English translation: Ethiopia: in Tigray, an Orthodox Easter between celebration, sadness and mourningARD tagesshow, 10 May: Ein Krieg, der keiner sein soll [in German], English translation: A war that shouldn’t be oneRadio France internationale, 12 May: Conflit au Tigré : pour le patriarche de Mekele «Abiy Ahmed marche dans les traces d’Issayas Afewerki» – English translation: Conflict in Tigray: for the patriarch of Mekele “Abiy Ahmed walks in the footsteps of Issayas Afewerki”

Upcoming webinar, 8 June: Voices From Tigray – Brutalities against Religious leaders, Holy Places and Heritage in Tigray

International reactions 

International reactions and pressure are becoming more important. Finally, the world is going beyond expressions of ‘serious concern’. Some key points of the U.S. senate Foreign Affairs Committee hearing:

The State Department is conducting a legal review as to whether war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. The Patriarch’s allegation of genocide is being taken seriously.The comparison with Darfur is being made. On the humanitarian issue, the comparison is with the 1984 famine in Ethiopia.The U.S. is considering utilizing the Global Magnitsky Act which would give far-reaching powers to sanction individuals. They also mentioned that they would be ready to pursue accountability to the highest level.The elections were mentioned in passing, to the effect that they would have no credibility, and that a national dialogue was needed.Concern with the regional order in the Horn of Africa (and U.S. national security) was expressed.

The video of the proceedings can be found here: https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/ethiopia-in-crisis-us-strategy-and-policy-response-052721

Related media articles:

VRT, 29 May: VN waarschuwt voor dreigende hongersnood in Ethiopische regio Tigray – (UN warns of looming famine in Ethiopian region of Tigray) [in Dutch, Tigrinya and English]Bloomberg, 28 May: U.S. to Freeze Funding for Ethiopia as Tigray Abuses SurfaceReuters, 27 May: U.S. warns of further action against Ethiopia, Eritrea over TigrayBBC, 27 May: Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict: Biden demands ceasefire and end to abusesNTV, 27 May: Biden fordert Waffenruhe in Tigray [in German]White House, 26 May: Statement by President Joe Biden on the Crisis in EthiopiaCNN, 26 May: Tigrayans told, ‘We’ll see if America will save you now,’ as hundreds rounded up by Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiersPolitico, 23 May: EU ‘seriously concerned’ about press rights in EthiopiaThe Guardian, 23 May: Washington toughens stance to fight atrocities in EthiopiaBloomberg, 22 May: U.S. Weighs Financial Sanctions Against Ethiopia Over Tigray WarForeign Policy, 21 May: Biden Administration Plans Visa Restrictions on Ethiopian Officials Over TigrayCNN, 21 May: US Senate passes unanimous resolution calling for withdrawal of Eritrean forces from EthiopiaUS Department of State, 19 May: Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with Finnish Foreign Minister HaavistoToday News Africa, 19 May: Biden administration says it remains committed to solving Tigray crisis amid accusations of inactionReuters, 18 May: Moody’s downgrade over G20 common framework hits Ethiopian bonds

How Tigray resists

We communicated with friends in Mekelle. They unanimously claim is that perpetrators of the crimes against humanity are Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers. On the other hand, there is also a mix of fear and pity for the young soldiers who are dropped in Mekelle. We received some details about the ways in which people inside Tigray are trying to resist:

A colleague from Mekelle University found one of their former students among the soldiers. The soldier begged for help to escape from Tigray and from the army. People help by giving them civilian clothes. 

In common talk in Tigray, the term “ENDF” is not used anymore when talking about the Ethiopian army, they are simply named “PP soldiers”, after Abiy Ahmed’s “Prosperity Party”. The respected naming has been lost. There is no protection for civilians in the Eritrean-ENDF controlled areas… This stands in contrast with Tigray strongholds, according to friends. North of Mekelle, in Sa’isi’e, Atsbi and towards Adigrat, the TDF (Tigray Defence Forces)  have established a strong presence. In these ‘free areas’ (as some people in Mekelle call them), the rule of law has been re-established. Robberies and theft are punished, there is an authority that can handle complaints. 

From 25 to 27 May, an inter-religious “Tigray Fasting”  (twitter: #TigrayTsom) was organised all over Tigray, with people fasting and praying for peace and humanitarian solutions. Oromo political prisoners even participated in the three days long fasting that has been held by the people of Tigray. The reader may take a 26-minutes (virtual) bajaj drive through town, visit the major markets and Mekelle’s hypercentre; all shops were closed, like in a general strike: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ry2KDVg_AfM&t=144s

As a reaction to this large civil disobedience, the PP administration tried to forbid shops from re-opening and stopped inter-city transportation: h

Unfortunately, media do not much address this widespread resistance of the population:

Addis Standard, 26 May: Jawar et al threaten to quit hearing attendance until court decisions are respected; commence two days hunger strike in solidarity with TigrayJamestown Foundation, 24 May: Tigray Defense Forces Resist Ethiopian Army Offensive as Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethnic Militias Enter the Fray  RFI, 23 May: Éthiopie: comment les forces rebelles du Tigré organisent la résistance[in French] – English translation: Ethiopia: how the Tigray rebel forces organize resistance

Tactics to get away with crimes against humanity

As mentioned, pressure on the Ethiopian authorities in relation to these massive war crimes has increased. Hence, they have developed a whole set of diversion tactics.

Tactic 1: Denial: “it’s a very crazy idea”, “you are on the TPLF payroll”Tactic 2: Admit a small crime, say that you are doing something about it, and the World can continue closing its eyes.Tactic 3: “This is a dirty war, all are committing crimes”Tactic 4: “Human rights concerns is Western imperialism; Ethiopia is not for sale”Tactic 5: “Unfortunately, this is the price to pay”

See some articles below, which may be fitted in either of the above categories

Al Jazeera, 30 May: Ethiopians denounce US at pro-government rally in Addis AbabaThe Reporter, 29 May: The bitter fruits of Tigray war: Eritrea costing EthiopiaFox News, 26 May: Ethiopia’s Amhara ethnic group accuses Biden of ignoring atrocitiesBloomberg, 22 May 2021: Ethiopia Awards New Telecoms License to Vodafone ConsortiumReuters, 21 May 2021: Four Ethiopian soldiers convicted of crimes against civilians in TigrayPolitico, 21 May: Ethiopia expels journalist who reported on atrocities in TigrayAFP, 21 May: Ethiopia says Eritrean troops killed civilians in TigrayNew York Times, 20 May: Ethiopia Expels New York Times ReporterAddis Standard, 17 May: Ethiopia says campaign to exert “undue pressure” against it “regrettable”; push by partners to involve the TPLF in national dialogue “unacceptable”

Other articles in mediaBahir Dar news (unpublished): The road to the north is closed. The Amhara Special Forces attacked the Qemant minority group – there is fighting and houses burnt in and around Gondar (Woleqa, Qusqwam).CNN, 28 May: Hundreds of detained Tigrayans released following CNN reportRadio France internationale, 25 May: Conflit en Éthiopie: l’inquiétude des habitants d’Alamata, ville du Tigré sous contrôle Amhara [in French] The Economist, 22 May: Eritrea’s President Issaias Afwerki bids for regional greatness – But his latest gamble is riskyThe Economist, 22 May: Eritrea, Africa’s gulag state, is on the marchSudan Tribune, 22 May: Egyptian troops arrive in Sudan ahead of bilateral military drillsThe Intercept, 21 May: Propaganda Machine – Voice of America Is Accused of Ignoring Government Atrocities in EthiopiaNation.Africa, 21 May: Ethiopian doctor who fled Tigray faces deportation from KenyaCNN, 19 May: Ethiopian soldiers armed with guns and grenades raid hospital featured in CNN reportSouth China Morning Post, 18 May:  Ethiopian civil war: Hong Kong pair trek to raise funds for victims, while their neighbours with adopted son from Tigray shield him from the conflict’s horrorsTghat, 18 May: After ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans from Western Tigray, Amhara State proceeds to lease and distribute their farmlands to Amhara investorsNation.Africa, 17 May: UN, Ethiopia rights groups to launch joint probe into Tigray abusesAddis Fortune, 15 May: In the absence of inclusive, conclusive national elections

Opinion pieces

The Armenian Weekly Staff: Tigray, the Armenian Genocide and an Open Letter to Pres. BidenBob Menendez & Gregory Meeks: Ethiopia: The Biden administration must put its foot downGoitom Aregawi: Tigray: Call It Genocide, Prosecute Its Leaders and End ItAlex de Waal: It’s time for Africa to take a stance against Ethiopia’s crimesSamuel Ghebhrehiwet: Eritrea viewpoint: I fought for independence but I’m still waiting for freedomOpinio Juris: The Ethio-Eritrean Hunger Plan for Tigray and the Failure of Resolution 2417The Times view on the tragedy in TigrayAlex de Waal: Ethiopia Tigray crisis: Warnings of genocide and famine

Best greetings,

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Jan Nyssen
Professor of Physical Geography
Department of Geography
Ghent University
Belgium