Monday, October 31, 2022

EEPA Situation Report Horn of Africa, No. 301- 31 October 2022Date: 31/10/2022Author: Martin Plaut

EEPA Situation Report Horn of Africa, No. 301- 31 October 2022

Peace negotiations (per 31 October)

  • The peace talks between the Ethiopian government and Tigray regional government have been extended to Tuesday.
  • According to a diplomatic source talking to The Continent, the peace talks are complicated by the absence of Eritrea.
  • The Continent writes: “Conspicuous by its absence is Eritrea, whose soldiers have been heavily involved in the fighting on behalf of the Ethiopian government.”

Situation in Tigray (per 31 October)

  • Tigray Military Command says that 49 Ethiopian and Eritrean divisions were deployed on the Adwa front in two directions, aiming to control Hawzien.
  • “Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) have inflicted vast amounts of damage on enemy forces in their counteroffensive in Felafil,” added the statement.
  • The Command also said that 5 Eritrean infantry divisions, 2 Ethiopian infantry divisions and one Eritrean mechanised division were defeated while moving from Adwa towards Mariam Shewito.
  • The statement highlighted that there are battles underway in Endabaguna, Selekleka, Wukro-Maray and other areas in northwestern Tigray.
  • Sources state that EDF forces are advancing towards Wukro from Berhale; artillery can be heard close to the city.
  • Sources state there have been repeated attacks on the Berahle front, especially via the Dessia forest, which have been held back by TDF. Dessia forest is at the border between Afar and Tigray.
  • EthiopiaMap says that it has been confirmed that ENDF forces and Fano militias now control the entirety of the B30 Highway from May Tsemre to Shire.
  • Fighting around Zalambessa is said to be intense by sources, in any case since yesterday, as the ENDF/EDF try to break the TDF defense line to enter Adigrat. The defense line has so far been holding.
  • According to Tigrai Television, artillery shelling by Eritrean forces killed 5 and injured 8 people in the town of Adigrat in Eastern Tigray on 29 October.
  • UNICEF report says that over half a million people in Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions have been displaced since fighting resumed in late August.
  • The report said that, in the Tigray region, over 210,000 people have been newly displaced since the restart of the fighting in late August due to continued airstrikes and shelling on multiple fronts.
  • Witnesses from Shire, Axum and Adwa tell AP News that Eritrean soldiers are continuing to kill civilians during the negotiations. An aid worker from Axum said civilians were being killed there by Eritrean forces. An NGO worker from Shire described looting of vehicles and household items.
  • There have also been reports of Eritrea troops burning crops in occupied areas as well as looting everyday items from occupied territories in Tigray.
  • According to Tigrai Media House, extrajudicial killings have occurred in Waja, Lambadina, Korem and Alamata, without further specification of the perpetrators.
  • Dr Kibrom G/Selassie warns that Ayder referral hospital is bound to collapse soon if left without support – with only 9% of medical facilities operational according to the World Health Organisation.
  • Fasika Amdeslasie, ex-Dean of the Medical School, Tigray, reports that multiple patients with drug resistant tuberculosis have been out of treatment for 17 months, creating fear of the strain spreading.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 31 October)

  • The Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS) condemns the killing of one of its ambulance drivers and patients carried by the ambulance by members of unspecified armed forces in Amhara region.

Regional Situation (per 31 October)

  • A double explosion killed at least 120 people in Mogadishu on 30 October. Over 300 others are injured. Somali authorities blame terrorist group al-Shabab for the attack.
  • The car bomb attacks targeted the building of the Ministry of Education. Sources state that a nearby college campus was also damaged. Children, students and teachers were among those killed.
  • South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir and the Chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council Sudan, Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, have pledged to move forward on the resolution of the status of the Abyei region.

International Situation (per 31 October)

  • A report signed by Lord David Alton, member of the UK House of Lords, details extortionary practices of the Eritrean government towards its diaspora in the UK. The report calls on the UK to launch a full and formal investigation into the diaspora tax and stop the collection or reduce its harm.
  • The report states the taxes are collected through coercion and threats and are therefore illegal.

Links of interest

Peace talks on Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict are extended: AP

Peace talks shrouded in secrecy

Tigrai Television: Statement by Tigray Military Command

መግለፂ ወታደራዊ ኮማንድ ሰራዊት ትግራይ 19 ጥቅምቲ 2015 ዓ/ም

Twitter: Tigrai Television says artillery shelling killed 5 and injured 8

UNICEF Ethiopia Humanitarian Situation Report No. 9 – September 2022

Witnesses allege Eritrean abuses during Ethiopia peace talks

Twitter: Ethiopia Map ENDF+Fano met up with forces in Shire and control the whole B30 highway

Twitter: Tigrai Media House Extrajudicial killings reported in waja,Lambadina, korem and Alamata.

Tigray’s largest hospital “doomed to collapse soon” due to lack of medical supplies

Twitter: Fasika AmdeslasieMulti-drug Resistant Tuberculosis patients on treatment have stopped treatment

Ethiopian Red Cross Society condemns killing of on duty ambulance driver, injured patients onboard

Somalia car bombs death toll up to 120, some still missing

Kiir, Burhan to prioritise final status of Abyei, says official

Security forces disperse fresh anti-coup protests in Sudan

Eritrea’s 2% Diaspora Tax and its impact in the UK

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia’s promise of peace

Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia’s promise of peace 

25 Oct 2022|Joshua Dunne

As NATO has pulled together in opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, the ‘black sheep’ of the family, remains awkwardly straddled between its roles as Europe’s ally and antagonist.

In recent weeks, Turkish state banks have become the latest to suspend the use of Russia’s Mir payment system, just a month after Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati raised eyebrows by dismissing warnings of sanctions over Turkey’s continued business with Russia, even disdainfully labelling the West’s threat as ‘meaningless’.

While Turkey’s recent compliance is encouraging, such contemptuous rhetoric from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration has become as common as it is troubling. Erdogan has weaponised refugees to strongarm the European Union; facilitated the ethnic cleansing of Kurds; and arrested, abducted and tortured countless political opponents. He has, unsurprisingly, little affection for the West.

However, by fixating on Erdogan’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his war in Ukraine, we have neglected Turkey’s involvement in another tragedy that epitomises its uncomfortable fit within NATO: Ankara’s drone sales to Ethiopia.

The Telegraph has labelled the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region as the ‘Great War of Africa’ and the ‘deadliest war in the world’. It is on track to be the bloodiest and most costly conflict of the new millennium, yet it has failed to grab major headlines.

Clashes in late August between the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and the militant Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia’s northern regions reignited a two-year civil war that has seen horrific crimes committed by both sides.

At least half a million Ethiopians have been killed and millions more displaced. These figures, which already dwarf the human cost in Ukraine, don’t include the cost of the war’s agricultural devastation during a severe drought, which the World Bank estimates will plunge 70 million East Africans into famine by next July.

Disturbingly, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—a former Nobel Peace Prize winner—has morphed from Africa’s democratic darling into a repressive and autocratic warmonger.

Worse still, Abiy has equipped his forces with fleets of armed drones from international suppliers, including the United Arab Emirates, China and Iran. Since last November, however, when it finalised a security pact with Erdogan, the ENDF has been turbocharging its drone fleet with Turkish Bayraktar TB2s—a platform so cheap, reliable and popular it has been called ‘the Toyota Corolla of drones’.

The use of these drones has fundamentally changed the strategic calculus underpinning both sides’ behaviour, threatening to push any potential peace deal out of reach. The damage they have wrought throughout Tigray prompted UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk to issue a statement last week describing the toll on civilians as ‘utterly staggering’.

First, the use of armed drones undermines one of the key forces motivating a resolution to any conflict: cost aversion. Drones will likely not permit a Clausewitzian culminating victory over the TPLF, particularly given their guerrilla tactics. However, they do allow Abiy to score cheap, regular tactical victories, reducing the incentive for negotiations while forcing his insurgent opponents deeper underground. Tragically, the inevitable terrorist retaliations will likely target Ethiopian civilians as much as ENDF personnel.

In addition, given both the TB2’s range and the TPLF’s inability to counter aerial vehicles, previously salient borders between TPLF-controlled and ENDF-controlled territories are becoming blurred. No longer safe within Tigray, TPLF fighters are encouraged to move into neighbouring regions such as Amhara, widening the conflict’s zone of devastation while Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan contribute greater resources to the war.

ENDF drone strikes have already prevented aid providers from providing much-needed food, water and medical services to victims of the violence, famine and human rights abuses, compounding the crisis and pushing East Africa closer to the point of no return.

There are arguments both for and against launching a full-scale intervention in Ethiopia, led by the United Nations, the United States or others. However, there’s no excuse to sit by while Ethiopians are devasted by advanced military technologies sold by despotic human rights abusers, particularly when they target peacekeepers and aid providers.

Turkey’s recent suspension of the Mir payment system in the face of Western sanctions suggests that the confluence of Ankara’s precarious economic situation and Erdogan’s own political vulnerabilities might motivate NATO’s black sheep to move a little closer to the flock. If Erdogan demands customers for Turkish drones, Western-allied states could arrange to purchase more TB2s. NATO could kill two birds with one stone by arming Eastern European militaries with drones already proven against Russian armour, while keeping them out of the hands of the developing world’s autocrats.

Given the widespread atrocities in Ethiopia, the West can’t give full moral support either to Abiy’s regime or to the TPLF. It can, however, support the millions of innocent people trapped in this conflict zone by addressing the impact of Turkey’s drones.

More than just military platforms, Erdogan is exporting instability throughout the developing world—sales from which Turkey is profiting handsomely.

Erdogan’s drones would surely be better used to uphold security in Ukraine than to undermine it in Ethiopia. As the bodies in Tigray pile higher and higher, so too does our obligation to act.

AUTHOR

Joshua Dunne is a research intern at ASPI. Image: Turkish Presidency/Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty

Eritrea’s divisions – funded and fuelled by President Isaias Afwerki.

Eritrea’s divisions – funded and fuelled by President Isaias Afwerki

The Tigray war

The war – now two years old – is raging, even as the first official peace talks are under way in South Africa. If the rumours are true, the conflict is now being directed by and staged increasingly from Eritrea. Ethiopian divisions have been flown into Eritrea and are fighting alongside Eritrean forces in a wave of attacks on several fronts. The Tigrayans have fought and fallen back, drawing their enemies deeper into their territory before using a sophisticated combination of conventional and guerrilla warfare to wear these forces down.

The death toll is appalling. There are confirmed reports of the scouring of the Eritrean cities and countryside for troops. Men as old as 70 have been called up. Children are forced out of hiding as their families are thrown out of their homes if they do not reveal themselves. Many have little training, but are being thrown into the war. Hospitals in Eritrea are said to be overflowing and yet the wounded still keep streaming into them.

Foreign observers wonder why the Eritreans, who fought so bravely for their independence over 30 years, have not revolted. The answer is that they have been cowed by the systematic repression they have faced down the years. The system of spies and informers are buried deep into their society, even dividing families. There are so few anyone can really trust.

There have been attempts at rebellion: the most well-known being the army revolt in 2013 that saw a column of tanks advance to the outskirts of Asmara – the “Forto rebellion”.

Tank during Forto rebellion

But Eritrea is not the only country with a dictator whose army never turned against him. One needs look no further than the German army which – apart from one assassination attempt – served Hitler loyally even as the Soviet tanks rolled into Berlin.

What’s special about Isaias?

Africa has many dictators, but Isaias Afwerki really stands out. One anecdote explains why.

It was told by Haile “Dure” Wold’ensae during his interview with Dan Connell on 13 March 2000. Then Haile was Minister of Foreign Affairs, but he became critical of Isaias during the 1998-2000 border war and came out openly with these criticisms as a member of the G-15, only to be arrested in September 2001. He has remained in jail ever since – a prisoner of conscience.

Haile and Isaias had made contact with the Eritrean Liberation Front prior to going to Addis university. But in September 1966 Isaias left Addis and joined the ELF in Kassala in Sudan. In December that year Haile joined him. This is where the story, as told by Haile to Dan Connell, gets interesting.

When Haile reached Kassala he knocked on a door, to be admitted by Isaias. But instead of welcoming his old comrade, Isaias immediately instructed Haile to say nothing – just register himself with the ELF that they were joining.

“I was shocked, I tell you,” Haile explained. “What has happened to the guy? Why is he so afraid.” Isaias told him: “This thing is completely opposed to what we were thinking, and we cannot talk about it here.”

Isaias set about establishing a tiny, secret organisation consisting at first of just three people, to begin clandestinely building the kind of movement that he – and Haile – envisaged. Plotting against any and every alternative to his own power base was integral to Isaias’s character from the very beginning.

Constructing the dictatorship

It was from this tiny seed that current Eritrean dictatorship would be built. But it was a long and winding road.

In 1967 Isaias would be sent for training in China during the Maoist dictatorship. He learned military tactics, but also came to understand how a Marxist-Leninist party functioned. On his return to Sudan and then Eritrea his plotting would continue.

First, he broke with the ELF, then founded what became the EPLF. But the real power lay in the secret Marxist-Leninist Party at the EPLF’s core: the Eritrean People’s Revolutionary Party (often referred to as the “People’s Party”) which Isaias led from its foundation on 4 April 1971.

It was by controlling this tight-knit Leninist organisation that Isaias took Eritrea to liberation from Ethiopian rule in 1991. Although the EPLF became the PFDJ in February 1994, little changed.

After the catastrophic border war with Ethiopia (1998-2000) Isaias fell out with some of his closest associates (including Haile) who came out in open criticism of his authoritarian rule. In 2001 they – along with student leaders and a range of journalists – were rounded up and jailed indefinitely. The dictatorship was complete.

Plotting beyond Eritrea

Isaias schemed his way to power. He then continued his plotting beyond the borders of an independent Eritrea. He has never produced a clear blueprint of what he sees for the future of his country, or the wider region. Eritreans are told by the president that they have failed to produce an effective economy, as if this is not his responsibility, despite Isaias’s complete dominance of the country since independence three decades ago.

At home Isaias enforced a system of repression, spying and conscription to indefinite “National Service” that has broken almost all resistance. Abroad he has constructed a parallel system of informers and bullies who extract taxes (the 2% tax among them) and loyalty from the worldwide diaspora. Anyone who stands up to this faces intimidation, threats and cannot expect any help from the Eritrean government with papers, visas or permissions.

Opposition movements abroad – already divided by the catastrophic “civil wars” between the ELF and EPLF prior to independence – have been infiltrated. Agents loyal to the president have been paid and funded to control or undermine and destroy opposition Eritrean organisations in the diaspora. Only total loyalty to Isaias is acceptable.

Minor differences are exaggerated, disputes amplified and divisions turned into issues principle. In so doing Isaias played upon the secretive and fractious nature of so many societies across the Horn of Africa. Traditional chauvinism has deprived the opposition of many far-sighted, intelligent women who might have overcome these hurdles.  As a result, the opposition in the diaspora has failed to bring together a people broken and intimidated by the dictatorship, to build a powerful resistance movement.

Will the Tigray war see these divisions overcome? Perhaps. Wars have a habit of being turning-points in history. Predicting how this will end is impossible, but one thing is sure: all dictatorships finally come to an end. As Dr Martin Luther King rightly observed: “the “arc of the moral universe bends toward justice.”

Note: See Dan Connell, Conversations with Eritrean Political Prisoners, Red Sea Press, 2005, for the complete interview with Haile

 

Saturday, October 29, 2022

Statement by General Tadesse Worede, Commander of Tigray Defense ForcesGeneral Tadesse Worede.

Statement by General Tadesse Worede, Commander of Tigray Defense Forces

General Tadesse Worede

This is an extended summary translation (unofficial) of General Tadesse Werede’s remarks to the press, delivered in Tigrigna, 27 October 2022

Source: Tigray TV


• The aim of the Ethiopian and Eritrean invasion has been previously made clear. So it doesn’t require a new explanations. In short, they want to exterminate the people of Tigray. They want to leave the people in a situation where it can’t recover ever again. 

• Both countries, the governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea, carried out the invasion together, with a joint plan. At first the fighting was carried out by the government of Ethiopia on the southern front. But within a short time, the government of Eritrea was involved and both are carrying out the offensive together, with a joint plan. It can’t be seen separately, both armies of the governments of Ethiopian and Eritrea are attacking us together. They are attacking us together from Eritrean territories, i.e. from Zalambessa, Igela, Rama, and Adiyabo. On the remaining side, from Adiyabo, Bezega, and Western Tigray. The Ethiopian and Eritrean forces are jointly carrying out offensives from many of these areas. Moreover, on the southern side, in Tselemti, Eritreans forces are taking part as well as providing support. Hence they are carrying out the offensive together. 

• Both have similar objective [in carrying out the invasion]. They each have their own objective. But it is ultimately the same. Though their respective strategies may be different, their objective is to wipe out the people of Tigray. The government of Eritrea has made it clear the objective that it wants to achieve from this war. It has revealed it to the army. It was also found the documents that were seized. It is to cause massive displacement of the people [of Tigray]. It is to make sure that the people won’t be able to live in their homes and villages. It is to make them refugees, to displace them to Eritrea, Amhara and put those that remain in IDP camps. It this way they plan to completely isolate the people from the war and force them to flee, to be displaced. This is primary objective. They measure the success of the war based on their extent of success in achieving this. The objective of the Ethiopian government is to bring Tigray under control at whatever cost. It wants to capture the towns and larger cities of Tigray, including the capital. Then it aims to capture the rural areas and persecute the people. Then it seeks to make [TDF] an army that lacks weapons. This, too, is clearly known. Therefore, this is the measure with which the success of each individual battles as well as the overall war is gauged. 


• War has rules. Individual battles too have rules. These are known laws; they are international laws. These laws are made invalid. All the people are not armed combatants. But the fighting has become one which targets all the people. Innocent civilians, children, elders, religious leaders, etc. are made targets. The war has become one where cities, rural areas, villages are burned. This was seen everywhere [battles took place]. It was observed in Adiyabo and many areas of Tigray. It was also observed in Zata, southern Tigray. They destroy and loot everything they come across. It is to make sure that there isn’t any grain they [the locals] would feed on when they return [to their homes]. This is being done in Adiyabo. They collected the crops, they loaded up fences. They went from house to house, they loaded up and took away household equipment. They did the same in Shire. Eritrean soldiers robbed residential homes for their personal gains. They are doing it in a manner worse than the previous time. 


• Wars have their own rules. In this war, they seek to achieve their aim at whatever cost. The fighting that took place in Tselemti, Asgede, Tahtiay Adiyabo, Lailay Adiyabo all the way to Shire, Selekleka… these were battles that any [sensible] commander would have stopped [because of enormity of losses suffered]. The [Eritreans] know the losses in manpower the EDF suffered; they know it we know it. [They suffered heavily in terms of] both man power and material losses! They lost a lot of military officers! The extent of losses suffered by the Ethiopian forces is to big to be counted. We are seeing how the Ethiopian youth are being led into a slaughter. In particular battles, fighting carries on up to the end. A lot of their soldiers are killed and wounded, both on the front and flanks; their tanks are destroyed; their vehicles are destroyed. It is not just the ones at the front that are killed but even the ones in the middle. Both the ordinary soldiers and officers are put to the slaughter. Their decision is that regardless of the extent of loss, the mission has to be achieved. This, after suffering heavy losses, they were able to advance forward to Shire and even reached Axum. But the offensive is not commanded by a commander who is guided by basic knowledge of military science. As long as it achieves the political objective of the Eritrea’s government – displacing the people and completely isolating the people from the [Tigray] army – [they implement it regardless of the loss]. 


• We have also come across the progressive evaluation by the Ethiopian and Eritrean military leaders. They evaluated [the war progress] in Shire, Axum and Addis Ababa. The losses were enormous. Yet their evaluation says they are winning regardless of the cost. Eritrea’s criterion is the displacement of people; and they indeed displaced people. The people of Tahtay Adiyabo was displaced; it left the area in front of the [Tigray] army. Children, elders, women left with their possessions with no clue how long they will manage to feed their children. The people have scattered in the desert. They have displaced the people from their villages, and taking this into account they said they have become victorious. They are taking away all the crops they come across, even ripe and unripe corn along with the stem! I don’t know whether they intend to give it to cattle. They are loading up and taking away the grains and household items from homes. They are taking away any property, even spoons, as they are accustomed to doing. They are saying they have become victorious because they are able to do this. 


• The Ethiopian army is being left without leaders. They are dying in large numbers. Yet they have captured Shire and they see it as success. 


• They believe we don’t have [enough] ammunition so they are sending soldiers to get us to finish our ammunition by shooting at them. Soldiers come [at us] nonstop and [it is assumed] that we will keep shooting and eventually run out of bullets. There are soldiers who are condemned to die for this. 


• The Ethiopian soldiers are being forced to fight by being shot from behind by Eritrean soldiers. Now Eritrean soldiers are also forced to fight by being shot from behind. The soldiers are humans and their capacity to bear such a burden will run out. This is what we are seeing. 


• They consider the difference in population number. The Ethiopian people is around 110 million while the Tigray people are few in number. So they believe that regardless of the cost in man power, the Tigray people will not be able to bear the loss because they are few. So they see [their soldiers] as leaves. 


• Soldiers of PFDJ are made to write the things they are supposed to do and not to do in their notepads. 


• We have no other choice than stopping this force. Our army has become even more determined at seeing the people get displaced from their homes. Our forces have become ever more determined. They are practically seeing that the genocide is not just talks. The military officers are seeing it. So, there is no other choice apart from using all kinds of military wisdom and fighting strategy to deal with [enemy forces]. This is what we are doing. The war is bloody and very tough, not just for us but also for the enemy. But our only choice is to fight. This is going to continue. We will see which side will crumble through this way. Our youth have no other choice; the people of Tigray have no other option. Their only option is to strengthen the [Tigray] army. This is the only option they are giving them. Tigrayan youth are flooding into the army. It is flooding in numbers that are more than what our army could handle. They have decided to become fighters. There is no other option. They have made the youth and people of Tigray to decide [to join the fight]. This is how the war is going to continue. They are pushing into Tigray. They have reached Axum and Adwa. Okay, they are taking the towns and coming. There isn’t a place we have abandoned. We will not abandon it. They have captured Shire, Mai Tsebri and the towns of Adiyabo. Yet we have not abandoned [withdrawn from] Adiyabo; we have not abandoned [withdrawn from] the areas around Shire; we have not abandoned Tselemti; we have not abandoned Asgede or Ankerey. We will not abandon them. We have not abandoned Zana or Adet; we never will. We will leave behind ember. We are with the people.


• We will use all kinds of military tactics to inflict heavy losses and keep on destroying the enemy. We will stop and defend where we should and when appropriate, move and destroy where it suits us. We will continue like this. We are making sure that the enemy will not have a safe zone. They will see practically that capturing a city, say Adwa, doesn’t mean achieving victory. It will become indisputable that, as it is known in Tigray people’s history, Tigray will be their grave. This isn’t a slogan or bragging. This is going to happen. That is already started. There will be ember at their backs. 


• After the defeat of the first Woyane [rebellion], a noble from North Shewa, an Amhara, was appointed as viceroy over Tigray as punishment. But Haile Selassie reappointed him before long. History is repeating itself. Now Dr. Alemu Sime, an Oromo, has been appointed as viceroy over Tigray. Other regents have been prepared from Afar and Amhara to administer woredas and zones. We are aware that police are going to be deployed from the federal police. We will see them come and rule over us. If they do manage to arrive, we will see if they will make it back. The strategy they are pursuing is not one that ends the war. It is a strategy that destroys and dismantles the country. The war can only end through peace. It is not possible to rule over the Tigray people by bringing an Oromo viceroy as well as woreda administrators from Afar and Amhara. The war will continue to rage in an even worse manner. There will not be a soldier that will make it out; nor will there be a viceroy who will get a chance to return. It is not just Ethiopian soldiers and viceroys but also Eritrean soldiers that will be buried here. 


• This is how the war is continuing. There is a strategy which we have chosen after readjusting and there is the strategy which the enemy has chosen to pursue. We will see how it ends. At this moment, they have taken control of Adwa. The Ethiopian and Eritrean forces who came through there have a plan to continue towards Tembien. Some intend to move through Gendebta and Feresmay to Hawzien. Another detachment plans to move through Edaga Arbi and Tsedia to Edaga Hamus and continue through Hawzien. In this way it is attempting to attack in order to force us to withdraw from our defenses in Zalambessa. We were able to crush one of these two lines of attack. The Eritrean force that came through Gendebta was not only able to continue but it was destroyed. The other direction of [enemy] attack is the one trying to reach Edaga Arbi and Tembien through Maikinetal. The fighting is ongoing. We will see how it will end. On the southern front, there has been continual offensive through Korem and Alamata for the past 20 to 30 days. Heavy fighting has been going on. The enemy has suffered heavy losses. But the lives, cattle and property of a lot of people has been lost here. They say Raya Kobo is ours and claim to have a plan to restore it. Yet the residents of Raya Kobo have been targeted. Their village has been destroyed. They say Alamata is ours; Zata is ours. Yet nothing has been spared. They are destroying everything. The enemy force that came through this has reached Korem. As we speak, fighting is going on around Bala, between Mehoni & Alamata, and around Korem. We will see how it progresses. Bombardment is taking place everyday around Abala and Desae; an Eritrean force is ready to make a move. It tried to attack a few days ago but it didn’t succeed. But the attack has continued through there. Yesterday and today, it has undertaken a very heavy offensive through Zalambessa. At this very moment the offensive is going on but it has not been able to break our defensive lines. Similar attempt is being made through Gerhu Sirnay – Edaga Robue. Eritrean and Ethiopian forces are launching these attacks from Eritrea.

 
• They have set a clear objective. So they will continue to advance as far as they can. The war will continue. They will attempt to achieve their plan and we will fight to thwart their plans. We have planned strategies and techniques that will enable us to do all we can to finish it by burying them, we will implement them. Our forces are under intense pressure. Our soldiers are young but they have no other option apart from fighting. Our army is being strengthened by manpower. The people are giving our army all kinds of support – moral support, carrying the wounded – because this is a decisive moment. Our forces are fighting accompanied by the people. But the enemy is moving alone. Unlike enemy forces who are getting refreshments, our forces are fighting day and night without rest; but they are fighting with high morale. We have an army whose sole option is to fight and win. The foundation for victory is to have such morale. We have an army and leadership that is ready to accept martyrdom. This is how the war is proceeding. Our forces are enduring through challenges that are near impossible to bear. The outcome will not end in enemy victory. 


• We have an army that will bring victory after victory. We are solving our shortage in material and ammunition from the enemy. At first the enemy forces were given a directive to take away ammunition before the wounded to prevent us from getting ammunition. But now, it is no longer able to do that. Hence, the enemy itself has become a source of our weapons. Not just Ethiopian forces but Eritrean forces have become a source of supply of weapons. Our army has reached an understanding that we are going to fight and defeat them with their own arms. The choice is in their hands. They have the option of ending it peacefully but if they say they will end it through force, the war will continue in this manner. It will not stop. Defeat is unthinkable! How are they going to win? The war may be prolonged; suffering and displacement of the people will increase. People who fight while enduring suffering either give up hope or become even more determined. The history of the people of Tigray shows that it doesn’t lean towards hopelessness. It has taken it towards determination. The Tigray army has also become determined. 


• War ensues if things can’t be resolved peacefully. But war is not something that has no ending; it will ultimately end in peace. Peace can come in two ways; over the grave of one of the sides or through finding a peaceful solution. The enemies are seeking to bring peace by burying the history, morale and identity of the people of Tigray. This can’t happen. It only prolongs the war. It is not possible to think that the people of Tigray accept defeat, submit to its lords and in this way peace will prevail. Hence the enemies are making the war to continue in an even worse manner, a war with no frontlines, one where non-stop fighting continues from one corner [of Tigray] to the other. They had said they defeated the First Woyane. They committed many crimes. Yet what did this do? It created indignation among the people. It gave birth to the Second Woyane. This is what is happening now. This is what the history of the Tigray people shows. The war will not progress like the time of the first Woyane when it got defeated and the struggle hibernated for 30 years. The war will not stop. They have the option of ending the war [peacefully]; but the option of ending it through war will only worsen it. There is no other option. They are giving the people of Tigray the sole option of fighting. Hence the people of Tigray will continue fighting. Consequently, the youth of Tigray have already prepared their arms. Tigray army too has made full preparation to continue the war in this manner. Hence the next [chapter] is to continue the war in a unique manner that befits the stage. This is one way. The other way is negotiation for cession of hostilities. If it goes well, the fighting will stop and conducive condition will prevail for resolving it peacefully. Cessation of hostilities doesn’t end the war; it only creates conditions political solution. Talks are going on and there are signs that there is a desire to carry out political discussions. The International Community is exerting great pressure to end the conflict peacefully. The superpowers such as the US, the UN, and African countries are putting in efforts to end the conflict peacefully. If the Ethiopian government listens to the advice of the international community and accepts the peaceful option, it will be possible to end the war peacefully. I have hope that the Ethiopian government will accept this option. But the involvement of the Eritrean government has complicated the situation. Eritrea has entered following the invitation of the Ethiopian government. If the Ethiopian government gets Eritrea to withdraw, accepts peaceful dialogue and facilitates humanitarian aid delivery, there will be conducive conditions to resolve the conflict peacefully. I hope we will reach an agreement. But it may not accept this. Many things have complicated the problem. Eritrea has complicated it. The desire of the Ethiopian government to subdue the Tigray people may make it refuse to come to peace. So we will make preparations to continue the war. But if there are ways in which peaceful solution comes about, we will accept them.


• If it [Ethiopian government] chooses war, we will continue on the path of war. We know their strategy. They are going to refine and use the same strategy that we already know. They have already started. The war will continue and we will be victorious. We are prepared for both options.


• My message is the one which the people of Tigray has given us. Our only option as people is to destroy the enemies that have come to wipe us out. Their only objective is to exterminate us. That is what they are doing. They have started to implement it. They have made extermination a measure of their success. Dear youth of Tigray and people of Tigray, our only option is to continue the war. The youth of Tigray are doing this. In all areas where the fighting has reached, they are flocking to join the struggle. It has to continue. The people of Tigray has to be armed. It has to turn Tigray land into fire. It has to make it ember. We have to deprive them of a place they could have peace. All the people of Tigray have to express their protest in organized and non-organized manner, both directly and indirectly, as they are already doing now. We shouldn’t [inaudible] that they may inflict harm on us; they came to inflict harm and are doing it. Our option is to fight. We have not seen those who are silent being spared. Hence we have to use all our resources to fight. We have to arm ourselves. We have to make them perish in Tigray. But if there is a peaceful option, we will listen. But the peaceful option can’t be one which takes away our identity. We have to fight to secure our identity either peacefully or through war. 


• The people of Eritrea should do everything they can to prevent its young and old people from getting buried in Tigray. What is happening is damaging the blood relations between the people of Tigray and Eritrea. I call upon the new generation of Eritreans to do their part in fixing this. 


• New developments regarding the Amhara. During the fighting of the past month or so, Amhara Special Forces, Fano and militia remained at the back. Now they are taking the frontline in the fighting inside Tigray. It is the Amhara Fano and militia who are invading Zata. They are the ones that are burning houses. The ones fighting around Beri Teklai, Shimkomajo and Chercher are the Amhara Special Forces. Republican guard commandos and Mekit division [trained as commandos by EDF] of Amhara Special Forces that are fighting in Beri Teklai. They are fighting from the front. They have entered into Shiraro. Amhara Security Forces and even militia are entering in many areas. For what reason are they fighting inside Tigray? Is it to exterminate the Tigray people? This is a question that remains unanswered. This has to stop. If possible, Amhara elites and religious fathers have to put a stop to this. If this doesn’t happen, the only option would be for the people of Tigray to continue fighting and conclude it with victory. The Amhara administration is being made to enter into Tigray and commit crimes. This crime will cause severe embitterment which is going to be difficult to rectify. Time is running. The Amhara elites should think about this; otherwise this generation will be held accountable. 


• I call upon the Oromo people to condemn the appointment of an Oromo viceroy over Tigray. Others too should fight against attempts to appoint administrators from Amhara, Afar, Oromia, SNNPR over Tigray. The people of Tigray will fight and reverse this. I call upon the peoples of Ethiopia to support the Tigray people.


“Statement by Tadesse Worede, Commander of Tigray Defense Forces”, Tigray TV, 27/10/2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_DAEPwv6gM

Friday, October 28, 2022

COMMENTARY Elizabeth Shackelford: The world’s worst war you aren’t watching is in Ethiopia

COMMENTARY 
Elizabeth Shackelford: The world’s worst war you aren’t watching is in Ethiopia

By Elizabeth Shackelford

Chicago Tribune

Oct 20, 2022 at 10:45 


While the world’s eyes are trained on the war in Ukraine and whether Vladimir Putin is unhinged enough to use nuclear weapons, another war rages mostly unseen some 3,000 miles away in Ethiopia.

The war is centered on the northern region of Tigray, where a long-standing political conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) turned violent in 2020. The region has been under a near total blockade for most of the time since, cut off from humanitarian aid, electricity, telecommunications and banking, leaving 5.3 million civilians in dire straits. The Ethiopian government’s renewed offensive has escalated the crisis even further.

Accurately estimating the dead while war continues is difficult, but the best estimates available suggest at least half a million people have died so far from direct violence, starvation and lack of access to health care. Starvation seems to be a feature rather than a bug in the government’s battle plan. More recent estimates suggest that this number have died in combat alone, possibly bringing the overall deaths closer to a million.

To put it in perspective, the United Nations estimates about 6,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine so far, and estimates put military deaths in the tens of thousands. Even if these estimates are low, the best available numbers suggest that the scale of death in Ethiopia exceeds that in Ukraine many times over. And yet Ethiopia has received a small fraction of attention, both from policymakers and the media.

The U.S. and others must take a more direct approach before the worst fears of the Tigrayan people are realized.

Those fears include a genocide of the people of Tigray. In response to the latest offensive, the United Nations, African Union, United States and other countries have called on all sides to cease hostilities. But generic calls for everyone to stop fighting and quiet behind-the-scenes diplomacy that has been the favored approach so far are a woefully inadequate response.
Tigrayan authorities have indicated that they would respect a cease-fire, but Ethiopian government officials have instead doubled down to lambaste the “evils” of its enemy. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government has reportedly dropped leaflets in Tigray stating that anyone remaining behind would be considered a combatant, raising clear concerns that all Tigrayans, a distinct ethnic group, would be targets in an assault.

Sources from the area claim Ethiopian and Eritrean forces (their allies) have been instructed to kill three Tigrayans each, including elderly and children, and that victims’ limbs and skulls are on display.

These stories are unverified given the lack of humanitarian and media access to the region. But given the language and actions of Ethiopia so far, along with the death toll and atrocities already committed, there is little reason not to take them seriously.

Eritrea’s role has complicated efforts to reach a peace too, as few countries have any leverage to influence its actions, and the TPLF is its sworn enemy. There is no guarantee that Eritrea will stop fighting even if the Ethiopian government comes to the table.
While it’s true that all sides have committed abuses, the scale is hardly comparable, with Ethiopia and Eritrea committing the lion’s share of wanton violence and harm against civilians throughout the conflict. When one side holds this level of responsibility for continuing conflict and suffering, those who hold any sway must speak out clearly and directly against it.

At this stage, peace looks like a long shot, but that does not excuse the inadequate efforts made so far.

The United States and the United Nations are often loath to invite criticism by directly calling out states for violent acts against their own people when those states are friends and partners, as Ethiopia is.

It won’t likely end the war, but that is a weak excuse for not trying harder. The innocent people of Tigray deserve acknowledgment, and there is a chance that such international pressure, in combination with policy choices that reduce Ethiopia’s support, through international institutions and individual countries alike, could influence the path Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed chooses.

Calling out the atrocities for what they are would at least put Ethiopia and Eritrea on notice that the world is watching, and the long arm of international justice could ultimately prevail. Offenders in Rwanda, the former Yugoslavia and Sierra Leone, to name a few, ultimately faced justice after all.

We must stop shying away from uncomfortable conversations when so many lives are at stake. If U.S. leverage is inadequate, we should press the countries who arm and support Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the international financial institutions like the World Bank which keep the country afloat as its economy falters.

The time for quiet diplomacy is over. The time for alarm has long since passed. Echoing what we’ve heard repeatedly about the plight of Ukraine: If Ethiopia stops fighting, the war ends, but if Tigray stops fighting, in the absence of international oversight and an inclusive peace process, the impoverished people of Tigray might end instead.

Elizabeth Shackelford is a senior fellow on U.S. foreign policy with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She was previously a U.S. diplomat and is the author of “The Dissent Channel: "American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age"



EEPA Situation Report Horn of Africa, No 300 – 28 October 2022

EEPA Situation Report Horn of Africa, No 300 – 28 October 2022

Peace negotiations (per 28 October)

  • Commander in Chief of Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), General Tadesse Werede, says that the Ethiopian government withdrawing Eritrean forces is a precondition for peace.
  • Former UN Relief Chief Mark Lowcock stated that the success of the peace talks partly depends on the amount of pressure put on Eritrea.
  • The Chairperson of AU, Moussa Faki Mahamat, says he hopes that the AU-led peace talks in South Africa “will lead to a ceasefire and opening a way to bring humanitarian support to those who are in need.”

Situation in Tigray (per 28 October)

  • General Tadesse Werede of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) told Tigrai TV on 27 October that “there is no strategic terrain” that was abandoned by his forces.
  • General Tadesse added that the TDF has stopped Eritrean forces coming in the direction of Gendebta to control Hawzien.
  • Tigrai Media House (TMH) says Eritrean and Ethiopian forces extrajudicially killed over 60 civilians in Adwa town, who had been sheltered in different churches and their homes on 26 October.
  • Several sources deny that Adigrat was taken by Eritrean forces.
  • lham Abdelhai Nour, WHO Team Lead for Ethiopia, stated that the levels of malnutrition in Tigray are “staggering”. One in three children under five is estimated to be acutely malnourished.
  • WHO warns medical supplies in Tigray ran out and only about 9% of health facilities is functioning.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 28 October)

  • In a statement released by the Ethiopian Federal Government on 28 October, it accused “various western entities” of joining what it calls an orchestrated campaign against Ethiopia.
  • As a consequence it stated they must “consider its relations with some states and entities that are making unsubstantiated and politically motivated accusations”.
  • Addis Standard reports that the Commercial Bank of Kenya has shown an interest in operating in Ethiopia following the country’s decision to open its financial sector to foreign investors.
  • A delegation of the Bank’s senior officials visited the Ethiopian Investment Commission (EIC) and it is the latest to express interest in engaging in the country’s banking sector.

Regional Situation (per 28 October)

  • The Somali armed forces announced the capture of a senior al-Shabab operative, Mohamed Jelle, who was in charge of what Somalia refers to as extortion in Jowhar and Rage-elle towns.
  • Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud called with the Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani about the role of Qatar as mediator between al-Shabab and the Somali government.
  • According to the New York Times, the Somali government has asked that the US increase drone strikes against al-Shabab and loosen restrictions on drone strikes.
  • According to Asharq Al, a Saudi newspaper, negotiations between the FFC and Sudan’s military administration is said to be  close to reaching an agreement.
  • The Assistant Secretary-General for Africa, Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, calls on Sudan and South Sudan to continue and increase their dialogue to resolve the final status of Abyei.
  • Pobee believes that, although the current situation in the area is calm, a new conflict between Dinka Ngoc and Twic could be brewing.
  • Speakers in a UN Security Council meeting also asked the UN Security Council to renew the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei’s (UNISFA) mandate as well as the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism due to expire 15 November.
  • 18 Eritreans who were detained in Uganda due to alleged lack of documentation, have been released after concerted efforts of legal experts, refugee and human rights activists and the administration.

International Situation (per 28 October)

  • Africa Intelligence states that the US congress has brought back for debate two bills aimed at sanctioning the Ethiopian government, as it is considering whether progress is made in the peace negotiations.
  • The bills also call for investigations into the atrocities committed during the war in Tigray.
  • Mohamed Abdelsalam Babiker, UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea, believes the election of Eritrea in the UN Human Rights Council for the 2022 -2024 period is a challenge for the UN human rights system.
  • Babiker states that Eritrea’s record on its human rights situation is seriously deteriorating.
  • He expressed concern of Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict, which is intensifying, the “de facto” blockade of Tigray by Erirean forces, torture in what is called “villas”,  and the forced and indefinite military service in Eritrea.

Links of interest

Can peace talks end the conflict in Ethiopia?

Monocle: The Briefing

Ethiopia should withdraw Eritrean forces for peace to be attainable: General Tadesse Werede

DW International: መግለፂ ዋና ኣዛዚ ሰራዊት ትግራይ ተጋዳላይ ታደሰ ወረደ ፣ 17 ጥቅምቲ 2015 ዓ/ም

Twitter: Tigrai Media House says over 60 civilians killed in Adwa town

Ethiopia’s Tigray runs out of medical supplies amid health crisis: WHO

Commercial Bank of Kenya to commence service in Ethiopia: Addis Standard

Twitter: FDRE Government Communication Service

AU Chairperson peace talks will “lead to a ceasefire and opening a way to bring humanitarian support”

Speakers in Security Council Urge Increased Dialogue between Khartoum, Juba towards Peaceful Settlement

Qatar makes efforts to mediate between Somali Govt and Al-Shabaab

Somalia Asks U.S. to Step Up Drone Strikes Against Qaeda-Linked Fighters

Somali national army arrests senior Al-Shabaab operative

UNITED STATES/ETHIOPIA: US Congress envisages harder line on Ethiopian conflict

No end in sight: International community continues to fail Eritreans says UN Expert

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional informati on and corrections.

Ending a war that has set new records for brutality — the rocky road to peace between Ethiopia and Tigray

Ending a war that has set new records for brutality — the rocky road to peace between Ethiopia and Tigray
By Mukesh Kapila

27 Oct 2022

Mukesh Kapila, CBE is Professor Emeritus of Global Health and Humanitarian Affairs, University of Manchester; and Senior Adviser to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Mediterranean. He has served in senior positions at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, United Nations, World Health Organization, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and advised many multilateral institutions including the World Bank, UN agencies, and NGOs. His many awards include a CBE from King Charles III, a Global Citizenship Award of the Institute for Global Leadership, the “I Witness!” award for human rights, and a special resolution of the California State Legislature for “lifetime achievements and meritorious service”. http://mukeshkapila.org/ and Twitter @mukeshkapila

The brutal civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is nearly two years old. South Africa is hosting African Union-mediated peace talks in Pretoria this week. What progress can be expected?

BeyondWords

Ihope that the rival delegations of Ethiopia and Tigray are comfortably housed by their South African hosts who are providing for their every need. This is vital because bitter foes dragged shouting and screaming by outsider pressure must first be soothed. A suitable mood has to be created to build trust — the essential underpinning for meaningful negotiations to end Africa’s most appalling war.

I discovered the importance of a conducive environment first-hand when, as head of the United Nations in Sudan in 2003-4, I hosted the humanitarian track of talks to end Africa’s longest-running conflict between the Sudan government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) who eventually went on to lead the new Republic of South Sudan.  

The luxurious Windsor Golf Hotel and Country Club was our venue with every creature comfort provided, but far enough away from Nairobi’s distractions. I discovered that while the opposing parties would not even look at each other in mind-dumbing silences or screaming confrontations in the conference room, they chatted amiably in the bar.

A hefty bar bill was the price to get food supplies moving down the river Nile from the north to a starving south. The humanitarian breakthrough helped re-set the mood at the stalled political talks in Naivasha led by Kenya’s General Lazaro Sumbeiywo under the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), a sub-regional body.

A comparable challenge haunts the Pretoria peace table. How to break the bitter impasse between the Tigray regional and the Ethiopian federal governments, and bring succour to the desperate people caught in the middle?

On the face of it, the chances are not good for Ethiopia/Tigray against a backdrop of mutual recriminations and repeated cycles of violence spanning several decades. Their political differences are vast — nothing less than opposing visions for the inclusive governance of Africa’s second-most populous and immensely diverse nation.

While history teaches that all wars eventually end, they usually do so only when one side or the other wins on the battlefield. That happened, for example, with decisive Indian intervention in East Pakistan that created Bangladesh, or the British intervention in Sierra Leone. This hardly ever happens in modern conflicts which can last in a confused muddle for decades, as we see in Syria, Afghanistan, Myanmar, or Yemen.

By historical standards, the Ethiopia/Tigray war is young — just a couple of years old — and does not appear ripe for solving. That is because the Ethiopian state believes it can win militarily, while the Tigrayan side believes it has an almost supernatural capacity to resist despite the huge civilian cost. A prolonged and violent stand-off is likely.

Meanwhile, experience also suggests that when peace comes, however belatedly, its quality depends on the way that the war was fought. The more inhumane the tactics deployed, the harder it gets to make good peace.

Prospects for Ethiopia/Tigray are not promising in this regard because that conflict has set new records for brutality, amounting to war crimes and egregious crimes against humanity including acts of genocide.

Millions have been displaced and mass rapes have hallmarked the violence, as have dehumanising hate speech going viral across communication and social media channels.

The systematic destruction of health and education facilities, farming, telecommunications, and banking infrastructure has done its worst to eliminate a whole way of life. Ethiopia’s relentless siege of Tigray has also stopped food, medicines, and other life-saving aid from entering. More than half a million of Tigray’s original 6-7 million people may have perished already.

The legacy of such bitterness makes peace-making an uphill slog. It also requires leadership from Ethiopia and Tigray which is not yet evident. Furthermore, even if both sides are pressured to sign a piece of paper, this is worthless if it does not include some pathway towards accountability and justice for crimes committed during the war.

Without that, there is no reconciliation, and therefore no durable peace. We have learnt that much from South Africa’s apartheid trauma, and I have understood this directly myself in genocidal wars in Rwanda, Darfur, and Cambodia, for example.

I do not lay out these concerns to demoralise those involved in the talks in South Africa. On the contrary, they are commended for pursuing the difficult quest for peace which is the most sacred of all human endeavours. But a realistic awareness of the numerous obstacles along the way can only enhance their chances of making progress.

The good offices of the mediators must be seen as impartial if they are to be trusted by the warring sides. The African Union has been much criticised in that regard but there appears to be little alternative to them, as the United Nations Security Council is paralysed by global geopolitics and cannot play a meaningful role.

Therefore, everything rests on the wisdom of the AU’s special envoy, former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, along with fellow mediators, former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta, and former South African deputy president Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.
This is a formidable and potentially intimidating cast of characters who got used to getting their way when they were in executive leadership positions. But are they aware that a heavy approach from them could put off the negotiating parties?

The troika of ex-presidents will, therefore, need to exercise their best qualities of humble forbearance. Perhaps, a Nobel Peace Prize could be on the cards if they succeed in their efforts, providing symmetry to the controversially-awarded Nobel to Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed.

The background role of the United States is even more important beyond their security and logistic support that got the Tigrayan delegation safely to South Africa. While peace talks may be fronted, for form’s sake, by a multilateral body such as the UN or AU, the sponsorship of one or more major member states is vital to get any deal over the line.

Such states are needed for the hard-lifting, arm-twisting or suitably inducing recalcitrant protagonists to get out of the way. This can’t be done by multilateral agencies. For example, the US/UK/Norway troika were indispensable to Sudan’s comprehensive peace agreement, as I witnessed for myself. Other peace processes conducted under multilateral auspices as in several West African countries or in Armenia/Azerbaijan also required “god-parenting” by other states.

Conversely, a state that is itself embroiled in a conflict zone — such as the US in Afghanistan — cannot play a constructive role in peace negotiations. Ethiopia’s friends who have been providing military equipment and badly needed economic aid can help their ally best by keeping away from the talks.

The Pretoria talks are set to continue till 30 October. They should not be burdened by heavy expectations. They will have succeeded simply if the Tigrayan and Ethiopian sides are still talking by the weekend and agree to extend or to meet again. It will be a welcome bonus if the talks manage to bring a cessation to fighting on the ground and allow humanitarian delivery.  

Tougher questions such as the Eritrean military presence in Tigray, Ethiopia’s future constitutional disposition, as well as accountability, justice, and restitution for war crimes and crimes against humanity must be faced in future rounds.

Peace negotiations can take weeks, months, or even years before they result in genuine and sustainable conflict resolution. This is often the outcome of many small steps along a fraught journey with many setbacks.

But taking the first step is the most difficult but important of the long journey ahead for Ethiopia and Tigray. 
DM 

Visit DailyMaverick’s home page for more news, analysis and investigations
 

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Ottawa, Canada, meeting of US, Canada and African Union Commission in pictures. October 27,2022.

Prime Minister Trudeau commended the Commission’s leadership role toward resolving peace and security issues on the African continent and expressed Canada’s determination to continue its partnership with the Commission in seeking and implementing solutions to these issues. Prime Minister Trudeau and Chairperson Faki discussed the situation in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, security and humanitarian challenges in the Sahel, and the threat of terrorism and food insecurity across the continent.

@SecBlinken
 I met with @JustinTrudeau in Ottawa to discuss our shared priorities, from strengthening North American competitiveness to supporting Ukraine and Haiti. It is always a pleasure to speak about our close friendship and common values – even more so while on Canadian soil.

Trudeau to meet African Union chair.


On Thursday, Faki will co-host a formal dialogue with Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, joined by Trade Minister Mary Ng and International Development Minister Harjit Sajjan. 


Foreign Minister. Melanie Joly, 

The visit was promised in February 2020, just weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic.

It comes at a time when Russia and China are making a push for influence across the continent.

Trade Minister Mary Ng

“The geopolitical competition for Africa’s attention is as intense as it has ever been since the end of the Cold War,” said University of Ottawa professor Rita Abrahamsen, who specializes in African studies.

She said the meeting could suggest Canada is getting serious about Africa.

“Canada has never had a consistent Africa policy. It has been arbitrary (and) fluctuating,” Abrahamsen said.

“If this could indicate more of a coherent engagement, then that could be a significant change.”

Similar to the European Union, the African Union aims to maintain peace and free trade, and includes most countries on the continent.

The organization, which turned 20 years old this summer, also intervenes militarily in situations like alleged crimes against humanity.

Lately, it has had to respond to famine-like conditions in East Africa, flooding in large parts of West Africa and a return of military coups.

That has left organizations such as the African Development Bank worried about the West diverting humanitarian aid to help Ukrainians after Russia’s invasion.

 countries have split in votes to condemn Russia, and the African Union has tried to maintain ties with Moscow.

“They’re trying to maintain a position of neutrality and non-alignment, which is a very difficult position to navigate for the continent,” Abrahamsen said.

Many states worry their humanitarian aid will be contingent on supporting Ukraine, with countries like Canada aggressively trying to isolate Russia. Joly has stressed that the invasion is a key driver in global food shortages.

She said Ottawa should try to work with the African Union to shore up the rules-based international order.

“There has to be a partnership of equals,” Abrahamsen said.

“There has been a general tendency to underestimate the extent to which Africa and the AU can actually be a positive player in safeguarding in multilateral co-operation.”

The Liberals have been slowly increasing Canada’s footprint on the continent, opening a new high commission in Rwanda and dedicating a permanent observer to the African Union. Yet Ottawa still has more than a dozen of its ambassadors in Africa cross-accredited to multiple countries.

Joly’s office said the point of this week’s talks is “to lay the foundations for even deeper co-operation,” on everything from climate change to public health.

“This important gathering is taking place at a critical juncture for the world,” spokesman Adrien Blanchard wrote.

“The international rules that keep us safe are being challenged. Democracy is facing new threats. And hard-fought gains to women’s rights are being reversed.”

Meanwhile, business leaders say Canada needs to take advantage of some of the world’s youngest and fastest-growing economies in Africa.

“We’ve got to change the frame in which Africa has been seen,” Business Council of Canada head Goldy Hyder told a panel last week at the Toronto Global Forum.

He argued the continent is one of the few places where companies can build infrastructure from scratch, instead of bidding for upgrades. That means Canada can supply energy, critical minerals and food.

  Hyder said there is also a startup boom, with some of the highest digital adoption rates and a continent wide trade agreement.

Liberal MP Rob Oliphant said he wants Canadians thinking in those terms instead of focusing on Africa’s needs.

As Joly’s parliamentary secretary, Oliphant has been tasked with drawing up an Africa strategy “with a Canadian modesty, not the way other countries might do it,” he said.

Oliphant told the Oct. 19 forum that Ottawa will continue its humanitarian aid for Africa, but that the strategy aims to bolster economic ties and global rules that allow investment to flourish.

“We don’t have those colonial vestiges; even the new colonialism of a U.S. or a China, or a Russia, or Turkey. We’re seen as someone who will be respectful and engage at that level,” Oliphant said.

He said the strategy will match the African Union’s 2063 blueprint for socio-economic development, touching on everything from democracy and climate change to how Ottawa should target its trade missions.

Oliphant said he hopes to present a drafted strategy to cabinet by the end of this year, to be publicly launched in 2023.

International Development Minister Harjit Sajjan.