General Tsadkan Gebretensae’s assessment of the Tigray war

General Tsadkan Gebretensae’s assessment of the Tigray war

Date: 06/10/2022Author: Martin Plaut

Key points:

I. Roughly 1 million people mobilized from both sides, about ¼ (~250,000) mobilized under the TDF, the rest (~750,000) are from the federal government and its allies.

II.Command at strategic and operational level rests mainly with Eritrean generals. “The main architect and implementer of this war is Eritrea…with the permission, close coordination, and invitation of the Ethiopian PM.”

III. General says this is a regional war. Isaias wants to be boss of the region, & would target Sudan next if he wins in Tigray. Also, nearly half of EDF is on ET soil, doubtful Isaias will w/draw. The ET population won’t accept Isaias’ domination of their country, so more conflict.

Source: Joshua Meservey Africa 

/MiddleEast policy at Heritage. 

Pleased to have hosted on Friday Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, member of the Government of Tigray (GoT) Central Command and, for decades, one of Ethiopia’s most influential military strategists. He is currently an architect of the Tigrayan Defence Forces’ campaigns.

This 1st thread is on my understanding of the General’s description of the fighting. 2nd thread will be on GoT’s negotiating position & its view of the war, as described by the General. Please correct me if I misunderstood the General on any point.

The main effort of Ethiopian & Eritrean joint forces is on the southern front, starting from Weldiya up into Tigray, and Western front which runs from Welkait/Badme area to Shire/Enda Selassie. Objective is to reach Shire/Enda Selassie

Ethiopian forces=8 commands, plus commandos, republican guards, & ~19 divisions of Amhara special forces (1 command=3 corps; 1 corps=3 divisions. 1 command has ~12 divisions).

All those forces fighting GoT. 5 commands are in western Tigray, 3 attacking from Eritrea: Northwestern Command, Eastern Command, and Southern Command, plus 3 commando divisions.

2 commands are attacking from the direction of Gondar to Addi Arkay & from direction of Welkait towards Sheraro. 2 or 2.5 commands & special forces are attacking from direction of Weldiya. All ER forces including reserves mobilized, ~54 divisions, 6 of which are mechanized.

About half those forces (~24 divisions) are attacking from western Tigray in coordination with ET forces. ~5-6 divisions attacked from eastern front towards Mekelle, but “temporarily neutralized.” Unclear whether ER forces will continue to mobilize and attack from that direction.

Rest of ER forces are in highlands around Mendefera, Adi Kuala, etc. Main mechanized forces come from ER, have “huge arsenal of ammunition” that is “replenished continuously from Addis.” Logistical support is from ER, believes aerial support, including drones, coming from Asmara.

Command at strategic and operational level rests mainly with Eritrean generals. “The main architect and implementer of this war is Eritrea…with the permission, close coordination, and invitation of the Ethiopian PM.”

Roughly 1 million people mobilized from both sides, about ¼ (~250,000) mobilized under the TDF, the rest (~750,000) are from the federal government and its allies.

General says this is a regional war. Isaias wants to be boss of the region, & would target Sudan next if he wins in Tigray. Also, nearly half of EDF is on ET soil, doubtful Isaias will w/draw. The ET population won’t accept Isaias’ domination of their country, so more conflict.

Can’t predict actions of Russians and Middle Eastern countries if Eritrea wins. They have a relationship w/ Isaias, will try to use him to further their own interests.

If TDF prevails, would be a chance to restructure the whole regional politics in way that benefits all Ethiopians and Eritreans.

Believes Tigrayans will win after a long time & many deaths. Notes irony that he fought alongside Isaias’ forces against the Dergue & commanded ENDF including during the border war with Eritrea, & is now fighting against those same forces.

Says w/ no outlet, TDF gets bullets from its enemies. Tigrayans give food & provision, however meager. Reiterates Tigrayan explanation for its attack on Northern Command: doesn’t matter whether Tigray fired first bullet, preparations for Tigray invasion had already been finalized.

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