Ethiopia in Crisis: Examining the Threat of State Collapse under Current Leadership.

18 July 2023

Ethiopia in Crisis: Examining the Threat of State Collapse under Current Leadership.

 by Jama Farah

(Articles published Here under the Opinion column do not necessarily reflects the stand and belief of Horn Horizon)

In 2018, Ethiopia’s people saw Abiy Ahmed as a beacon of promise in a time of darkness. With a platform of change, he promised to lead the nation into a new era of openness and peace, freeing political prisoners and working to heal a land ravaged by violence and unrest.

But as the years have passed, Ethiopia has become mired in one of the bleakest periods of its history. The harsh truth has become impossible to ignore. Over a million people were killed in the Tigray war, millions more have been forced to flee their homes, and the economy is in ruins. Atrocities are being committed with impunity. One in five Ethiopian need food assistance to survive. Due to the scarcity of foreign currency for buying fertilizers, farmers in various Ethiopian regions, including Amhara, Oromia, and Gurage zones, are currently in turmoil. With limited time to sow Teff, a crucial staple food, the country faces an imminent shortage that could result in widespread hunger and starvation next year.

Despite mounting evidence of human rights abuses, including unspeakable acts of violence and forced displacement, Abiy has somehow managed to evade accountability. He even found time to watch the World Cup with President Biden in the hallways Washington Conference Center.

This article explores whether Abiy will prove to be the exception, defying the recurring issues that have brought down previous governments, or whether he will lead Ethiopia down a dangerous path where the horrors of the Rwanda genocide could pale in comparison. Will Abiy Ahmed bring Ethiopia to new heights, or will he be the one to bring it down a new low? Thus far, the events show the country is trending toward the latter.

From No Name to a Noble Name

The Ethiopian Prime Minister burst onto the political stage like a rock star, his words dripping with promises of love and prosperity. He emerged when Ethiopians seemed desperate for a savior, someone who could lead them out of the darkness they felt they were in. Some artists composed lyrics exalting him to the pedestal of Moses the Deliverer or Jesus the Messiah, capable of Making Ethiopia Great Again (MEGA). But as time passed, it became clear that his promises were hollow, and his rise to power was occasioned by the people’s profound desire to see someone else at the helm than the then ruling party.

The new prime minister’s messianic rhetoric was not just a product of the people’s desperation but also a reflection of the culture of despotism that has plagued the Horn of Africa for years. Christopher Clapham has noted that the region has a history of producing some of Africa’s longest-serving dictators.

The people have been accustomed to worshiping leaders, sacrificing their freedom and dignity. As the Ethiopian saying goes, “Negus yeqoretew ej get naw” (a hand a king chopped off is a decoration). The implication is that the people know how to groom and grow a tyrant.

In the same vein, despite warnings from some opposition figures and scholars about Abiy Ahmed’s tendencies, preferences, and frailties, people continued to trust his dodgy rhetoric, empty promises, and outright deceptions. Even the international media joined in the chorus of praises, resulting in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize. But as time passed, his true nature began to emerge. A book he authored, “Erekabena Member,” essentially a catalog of deception, intrigue, and innuendo that characterize Abyssinian political culture, reveals that man has no regard for democracy and the rule of law, instead praising treachery and betrayal as means of staying in power.

The chants of praise and adoration he encouraged fueled his messianic complex into a complete delusion, making him believe that he was handpicked and anointed by God to rule Ethiopia, to take it to new heights and the promised land of prosperity where the rivers are milk and of clear honey. His inexplicable and cryptic speeches, such as when he claimed that, by 2050, Ethiopia would be one of only two superpowers, betray that he is truly delusional. The delusion rose to hallucination when he claimed his knowledge and technical skills had caused precipitation and rainfall in parts of Ethiopia. These are not exaggerations or hyperboles. They are his words.

 

What was the cause of the war:

 Revisiting the causes?

Revisiting the reasons behind the Tigray War unveils a tale of two camps, each with its vision for the country’s future. The Federalist camp had been calling for democratizing the constitutionally envisioned multinational federalism and its implementation and operationalization. They sought greater political participation and genuine self-rule. On the other hand, the Make Ethiopia Great Again (MEGA) forces were nostalgic for the past. They believed that the contagion that led Ethiopia into a downward spiral into the political abyss stemmed from what they contemptuously called “ethnicized politics.” The battle lines were thus drawn. The Tigray region became the stronghold of the Federalists. Still, there may have been ulterior motives driving the conflict, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed engineering a showdown between the two camps to consolidate his power.

Ethiopian contemporary political history has repeatedly shown that shifting alliances can weaken rival political actors. The Amhara-Tigray alliance has long been a threat to the Oromo. For example, the alliance between Sihul Mikael of Tigray with the Amhara nobility of Gondar was the reason for the weakening of the Yeju Oromo dynasty’s dominance in the 18th century. More recently, the Amhara and the Oromo alliance, dubbed “Oromara,” was the reason for the weakening of the Tigrayan dominance.

Following the Pretoria agreement, the balance of power is shifting again, with the Tigray now gravitating towards the ostensibly Oromo prime minister. The Oromara seems to have fallen into political disuse, and the Amhara are gearing up to fight. Simply put, the Tigray War was more than a simple struggle for power and dominance—instead, it was a complex clash of ideologies between federalists and MEGA camps.

The Fear Factor

Since Prime Minister Abiy took office, Ethiopia has been beset by violence and political unrest. The frequency of political assassinations has risen, casting a pall of uncertainty and fear over the country. Notably, the murder of high-profile officials such as General Seare Mekonnen, chief of staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), and Ambachew Mekonnen, president of the Amhara region, remain shrouded in mystery. Even the death of the chief engineer of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the heart of Addis Ababa has raised suspicions. The murder of Oromo singer Hachalu Hundesssa triggered widespread chaos and unrest, resulting in the arrest of notable political figures, including Jawar Mohamed and Bekele Gerba. The recent unexplained killing of the head of the Amhara prosperity party has only added to the sense of unease. At the heart of this crisis is Prime Minister Abiy’s delusional leadership, which appears to be steering the nation toward an increasingly dangerous and unpredictable future.

Prime Minister Abiy’s divisive language and actions have escalated tensions within his support base. His vilification of opponents has led to a brutal war that has caused countless deaths and displaced over a million people. He ousted Lemma Megerssa and Gedu Andargachew, former presidents of the Oromia and Amhara regions, respectively, who had forged an alliance known as Oromara and supported the protests that propelled Abiy to power. Their removal left Abiy with no severe challengers who could question his actions. Moreover, Abiy’s boasts about his efforts before taking office are revealing. His disclosure of classified intelligence to the Oromo Liberation Front and communication with the US as an intelligence officer are considered acts of high treason. His pledge to “fight and die for America” is also alarming. Most notably, he has weakened Ethiopia’s democratic institutions and made himself the sole decision-maker, creating a dangerous situation for the country. Linking the fate of an entire nation to one individual is a recipe for disaster, as it fosters the fear that if Abiy were to disappear suddenly, the nation would be left at the mercy of competing warlords, what some described as a return to the Era of the Princes in mid-18th –mid 19th centuries Ethiopia.

Prime Minister Abiy’s unpredictability and frequent changes in political alliances have left Ethiopia in a precarious situation. Over the past five years, he has led four overlapping national coalitions and one external coalition against the “Imperialist West.” He organized a nationwide coalition against TPLF (2018-2019), an Ethiopianist coalition against Oromo nationalists (2019-2020), an Ethiopianist coalition against TPLF (2020-2022), and an Ethiopianist coalition against the “Imperialist West” (2021-2022). Additionally, an emerging ethnonationalist coalition against Ethiopianists has formed in 2023. Despite some successful outcomes, these shifting alliances have often resulted in extreme violence and left many flabbergasted at Abiy’s maneuvering skills and the amorphous nature of his politics.

The fear factor in Ethiopia extends beyond the present moment. The future of the country is shrouded in uncertainty, deepening the fear felt by its people. There is an overwhelming apprehension that the nation will continue down the path of violence and unrest and that future generations will inherit a country torn apart by conflict. The fear factor in Ethiopia is genuine, and it is rooted in the experiences and anxieties of people who have endured too much pain and suffering.

R

The High Cost of Frivolous Projects and Disregard for Accountability

Since ascending to power, Abiy has taken on the role of a regal monarch rather than just an ordinary prime minister. Refusing to hold himself accountable, he has instead embarked on a series of flashy projects, beginning with his own opulent office and palace, followed by the revamping of recreational parks and parking lots in the capital, Addis Ababa. While these endeavors were intended to attract investors and tourists, they have failed to generate employment or address the needs of the people. Abiy has refused to disclose the funding sources for these projects, insisting that only approved parliamentary funds are open for discussion. This lack of transparency and dismissive attitude towards accountability has eroded trust in his leadership. When conflict erupted in Tigray, Abiy acted unilaterally, disregarding his cabinet and the parliament.

The white elephant projects, consisting of extravagant ventures like Entoto, Friendship, and Unity parks, along with the rehabilitation of the Menelik and National Palaces and the construction of new palaces and Meskel square parking lot, not only lack practicality but also pose a significant threat to the economy. The prime minister’s priorities are questionable, as evidenced by his decision to build a $15 billion palace while the country faced economic turmoil, high cost of living, and drought. The origin of the funds for these ostentatious projects remains a mystery. However, suspicions suggest that the government may be printing more money to finance them, which would only exacerbate inflation by injecting more money into the economy.

Rampant Corruption

Corruption has become rampant under the watchful eyes of Prime Minister Abiy, transforming the practice from an exception to the norm. During the parliamentary session held on March 30, 2023, the prime minister was confronted about his efforts to combat the pestilence of corruption, and his response was discouraging. Corruption has infiltrated every level of government, and even the ruling Prosperity Party acknowledges that this affliction seriously threatens the nation’s well-being. A national anti-corruption committee has been established, but its purpose seems to be to silence those who dared to question the prime minister’s authority rather than apprehend high-ranking officials accused of corruption. For instance, in the Somali region of Ethiopia, the effects of this disease are particularly devastating.

The people suffer from the neglect of their leaders, as they take most of what is allocated for the region and invest in foreign lands, such as Nairobi, Dubai, Canada, and Dubai, leaving the people to their fate. The Prime Minister has made an official statement in the media, acknowledging that the country is being robbed through Wajale, a border town in the Somali region. This robbery involves both the illegal trade of petroleum and the manipulation of dollar exchange rates, which ultimately devalues the Ethiopian birr. However, despite his statements, the Prime Minister’s actions do not align with his words, as no one is held accountable for these crimes.

Consequently, there is a growing belief that the Prime Minister allows his officials to resort to corruption as long as they maintain their loyalty and obedience. Still, if they threaten his leadership, he will use corruption charges against them. This cancer of corruption has spread deep into the soul of the Prosperity Party, with no cure in sight. It fuels the frustration of the people and poses a threat to the stability of the government. The corrupt officials will continue accumulating power, creating their turfs, and conspiring against the prime minister, ultimately crippling his administration. It is a dire situation indeed.

How transition happens in Ethiopia: a lesson from the previous transitions

Ethiopia’s turbulent history has been defined by tragic events that have left the country reeling. Droughts, famines, economic crises, and unresponsive governments have all played a role in the downfall of those in power. During Emperor Haile Selassie’s reign, thousands of lives were lost due to famine and economic starvation, with the emperor failing to provide adequate aid. Eventually, his seemingly unassailable position was challenged by a failed coup attempt from two brothers, General Mengistu and Germame Neway, which exposed his human frailties and shattered the belief that he was immune to harm, leading to his downfall in 1974.

The Derg, or the council of military officers and soldiers that took over power, faced similarly devastating calamities, with a biblical famine ravaging the country and over a million people losing their lives. Despite this, they lavishly celebrated their 10th anniversary and attempted to institute a new constitution to save the country. However, their efforts were ultimately unsuccessful, and they were overthrown by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in 1991.

The EPRDF government learned from the mistakes of its predecessors and recognized poverty as the country’s number one threat. Through international appeals and progress made in the economy, they responded to drought and kept the government from collapsing. However, internal bickering and Oromo and Amhara protests that Team Lemma and Gedu supported ultimately led to the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and the rise of Prime Minister Abiy to power. Since then, the country has been plunged into chaos and dysfunction, with one in five people in dire need of food assistance and unemployment at an all-time high. The economy is shattered.

The government’s preoccupation with exorbitantly costly projects that add no value to the economy and their lack of action in addressing the living cost crisis, drought, and conflicts have only worsened the situation. To make matters worse, the government has opted to export wheat despite the food scarcity in the market, leading to flour factories closing down due to a lack of wheat and foreign currency to buy from abroad.

As Ethiopia faces another storm of calamities, the question remains: can it avoid the fate of its past, or is its collapse inevitable? Only time will tell who will take its place. Nevertheless, the lesson from previous transitions is clear: without addressing the triad of drought, economic crisis, and unresponsive governance, the cycle of calamities will continue to plague Ethiopia.

Ethiopia: furthering division

Ethiopia’s political landscape is marked by a great deal of diversity, resulting in a political culture with numerous conflicting viewpoints. Disagreements persist on critical symbolic issues, such as the country’s flag, its shared heroes, and whether Ethiopians are a single people or a collection of distinct peoples. Disputes over identity in Ethiopia have frequently resulted in conflict and even open warfare.

Unfortunately, the arrival of Prime Minister Abiy has only intensified these divisions. Rather than working to unite the various ethnic groups, the prime minister has intentionally fanned the flames of tension and fostered distrust among them. As a result, long-standing coalitions like the Amhara-Tigray Orthodox affinity have splintered, with once-loyal partners now at odds over the atrocities of the recent Tigray conflict. Even the highland Oromo, who previously were the Orthodox loyalists, have now abandoned the church, appointing their bishops and attempting to sever ties with the Holy Synod in the process. The consequences of these divisions are severe, as they endanger harmony and tolerance among the people, leading to vicious cycles of conflict.

What extends the reign of Abiy?

Yesteryear’s euphoric chorus of Prime Minister Abiy’s supporters has faded into the eerie silence of regret. The cacophonous praises of his supposed enlightened leadership have resulted in the loss of more than a million lives and displaced millions more. As Ethiopia struggles to survive the perfect storm of drought, economic crisis, and unresponsive governance, the question on everyone’s mind is how Abiy can maintain his grip on power.

The answer lies in the intricate web of power that Abiy has spun around himself. At the center of this web are six key threads, three internal and three external. Internally, Abiy maintains his grip on power through tight control over the government, especially the security apparatus and the Prosperity Party hierarchy. He operates the government like his own fief with virtually no accountability or checks and balances. His security apparatus instills fear in those who dare speak out against the government.

However, as the civil war continues to take its toll on the military and economic hardships become more prevalent, there is a growing risk of a potential weakening of the security apparatus. More individuals within the military and law enforcement may begin to question their loyalty to the government and even coup attempts. Although the ruling Prosperity Party has been victorious in keeping officials in line, infighting between different ethnic groups has weakened the party structure and contributed to instability within the government.

Externally, Abiy’s reign is extended through a polarized and divided society, weak opposition parties, and an uncertain international community. Ethiopian society is deeply divided and lacks the necessary structures to voice its political concerns effectively. Opposition parties are too weak to seize control of the government, and the international community is hesitant to take decisive action that may disrupt stability in the region.

Despite these challenges, there is still a faint hope for Ethiopia. By engaging with political parties and community organizations, it is possible to bridge societal divisions and foster greater unity and understanding. However, there is a limit to what the people can bear, and they may eventually rise against the overwhelming adversity they face. If Abiy’s web of control and domination were to unravel, it could trigger the collapse of the government and unleash a catastrophic wave of destruction and possibly genocide that would make the horrors of the Rwandan genocide seem like child’s play.

It is up to all of us to work together to prevent this from happening and to create a brighter future for Ethiopia.

Jama Farah is a civil servant and Prosperity Party member in the Somali region of Ethiopia. He wants to remain anonymous due to the security risks to himself and his family, necessitating using a pen name. He can be reached at jamafarah85@proton.me