Habtamu Nini Abino
Ottawa, Canada
March 14, 2024
Introduction:
The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, released on March 11, has raised concerns regarding the ongoing Ethiopia-Tigray conflict despite the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in November 2022. The report highlights the unresolved territorial issues in the Tigray and Amhara regions, indicating that the peace agreement has not fully addressed the underlying causes of the conflict. This critical analysis delves into the implications of the intelligence assessment and examines the complexities of the Ethiopia-Tigray conflict.
Background:
The Ethiopia-Tigray conflict erupted in November 2020 when the Ethiopian government launched a military offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Tigray region. The conflict resulted in widespread violence, mass displacement, and humanitarian crises, drawing international condemnation. The Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in November 2022 was a significant step towards ending the two-year war. Still, the recent U.S. intelligence assessment suggests that lasting peace remains elusive due to unresolved territorial disputes.
Analysis:
The U.S. Intelligence Community's assessment underscores the fragility of the peace agreement and the persistent challenges facing Ethiopia in achieving sustainable peace in the Tigray and Amhara regions. The unresolved territorial issues mentioned in the report indicate deeper-rooted grievances and historical tensions that continue to fuel the conflict. The failure to address these underlying causes risks reigniting violence and instability in the region, undermining efforts for reconciliation and long-term stability.
One of the critical issues highlighted in the assessment is the contestation over territorial boundaries between the Tigray and Amhara regions. The competing claims over land and resources have been a longstanding source of conflict between the two ethnic groups, exacerbated by political, economic, and social factors. The lack of a comprehensive resolution to these territorial disputes poses a significant obstacle to building trust and fostering sustainable peace between the communities.
Furthermore, the intelligence assessment raises concerns about the capacity of the Ethiopian government to effectively implement the peace agreement and address the root causes of the conflict. The report suggests that ongoing political tensions, governance challenges, and security threats continue to hinder the peace process, creating a volatile environment that could potentially lead to a resurgence of violence.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community provides a sobering analysis of the Ethiopia-Tigray conflict, emphasizing the unresolved territorial issues as a critical impediment to lasting peace in the region. The assessment is a stark reminder of Ethiopia's complex challenges in its quest for peace, reconciliation, and stability. Addressing the underlying causes of the conflict, including territorial disputes, historical grievances, and political tensions, will be essential to building a sustainable peace framework that promotes inclusivity, justice, and respect for human rights. Failure to do so risks perpetuating cycles of violence and instability, with far-reaching implications for the people of Ethiopia and the broader region.
Conflict in Tigray and Amhara regions.
ReplyDelete1. **COHA Implementation Progress**: There has been significant progress in implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (COHA) in Ethiopia, including efforts to silence the guns, provide humanitarian access, restore basic services, and establish an Independent Reconciliation and Accountability Commission (IRA) in Tigray. However, more progress is needed to expedite the process and create a conducive environment for disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of ex-combatants.
2. **Urgency of Addressing Conflict-Affected Individuals**: There is an urgent need to address the needs of those affected by the conflict, including through reconstruction efforts.
3. **Transitional Justice and Accountability**: There is a call for advancing a victim-centered transitional justice process and ensuring accountability. Parties involved are urged to continue meeting to assess progress in implementation.
4. **Political Dialogue and Return of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)**: A political dialogue has been initiated in accordance with the COHA to resolve critical issues for the orderly, secure, and voluntary return of Internally Displaced Persons.
5. **Challenges and Commitment**: While recognizing the challenges that remain to be addressed by the Government of Ethiopia (GOE) and IRA, there is an urge for them to ensure that the COHA leads to lasting peace. There is also a call for a similar commitment from those involved in crises in other regions of Ethiopia to pursue peace through dialogue.
6. **US Intelligence Report**: The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community warns that unresolved issues in Wolkait and Raya could lead to another round of war in the region. This highlights the ongoing risks and challenges in the region that need to be addressed.
The situation in Ethiopia remains complex and challenging, requiring continued efforts from all parties involved to achieve lasting peace, address humanitarian needs, and ensure accountability and justice for those affected by the conflict.
#US senators urge Biden administration to support #Ethiopia amidst humanitarian crisis
ReplyDeleteMinnesota Senator Tina Smith, along with other lawmakers, including Senator Amy Klobuchar, is urging the Biden administration to address the escalating humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia. In a letter to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development Samantha Power, they call for continued international humanitarian support.
In the letter, the senators express "deep concern about the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia, which is set to worsen this year due to growing conflicts and climate shocks." While the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (#TPLF) was welcomed, the senators note that "While TPLF forces have begun to demobilize as a condition of the deal, we have yet to see #Eritrean combatants fully withdraw, which has fueled violence in the #Tigray region." Conflict has also continued or intensified in other regions, such as #Amhara and #Oromia, the senators wrote.
Compounding the crisis, the lawmakers cite "dire drought conditions in Ethiopia" that are "further exacerbating humanitarian needs in areas already ravaged by conflict." They note how drought followed by extreme flooding has decimated livestock and displaced hundreds of thousands.
While commending U.S. humanitarian assistance to date, the senators call on the Administration to push for conflict resolution and Eritrean withdrawal, ensure humanitarian access, and rally greater global contributions. "Continued American engagement and leadership to support the people of Ethiopia is critical," they affirm.
kttc.com/2024/03/14/sen…
#Editorial: Deploy effective monitoring now to protect #Pretoria peace agreement and avoid risk of relapse into renewed hostilities!
ReplyDeleteaddisstandard.com/deploy-effecti…
The Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, signed between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (#TPLF) a year and four months ago to end a devastating two-year war, was initially met with relief. Its implementation facilitated the silencing of guns in #Tigray, aid delivery, and restoration of basic services. However, crucial obligations remain unmet, widening the gap between the federal government and Tigrayan authorities and risking a return to conflict.
The #US Intelligence Community's Annual Threat Assessment on 11 March, 2024, highlighted unresolved territorial issues, particularly in western and southern Tigray, occupied by #Amhara regional forces. This hampers the return of 1.2 million Internally Displaced People (#IDPs) and Tigrayan refugees, compounding their suffering. The federal government's reluctance to address the withdrawal of #Eritrean forces from northeastern Tigray undermines its commitment to sovereignty. Despite reports of disarmament progress, political dialogue stagnates, fostering mistrust.
Justice and accountability for war victims, including crimes against humanity, remain unaddressed. Blame is shared among signatories for sluggish implementation, including the #AU, US, and #IGAD, criticized for inadequate oversight. The first strategic review of the Agreement, held sixteen months after its signing, lacked specifics on measures to revive unmet obligations. Monitoring mechanisms, like the Joint Committee and AU experts, have been mostly inactive, exacerbating tensions between the federal government and Tigrayan authorities.
Media rhetoric threatens progress, violating the Agreement's provisions against hostile propaganda. Effective monitoring and compliance mechanisms are crucial to prevent a relapse into conflict. While a recent strategic review is a positive step, sustained international commitment is essential. Without effective monitoring and accountability, the Agreement's fragile peace risks collapse, with dire consequences for #Ethiopia and the region.
BY:Addis Standard