The Ethiopia-Eritrea Agreement and Its Consequences: A Path to War

The Ethiopia-Eritrea Agreement and Its Consequences: A Path to War

On December 27, 2023, a significant development in the Horn of Africa was reported by the Emirate Policy Center, marking a turning point in the longstanding relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The leaders of the two nations agreed to a historic arrangement that would provide Ethiopia with access to the sea and the use of Eritrean ports. However, this agreement came with controversial political undertakings that have since ignited a devastating conflict within the region.

The deal included a commitment to dismantle the existing Ethiopian multinational federation, reverting the country to a pre-1991 unitary state structure. This decision was met with widespread opposition, particularly from groups that had benefited from or supported the federal system, such as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and various Oromo nationalist organizations. 

Eritrea's role in this agreement was not that of a passive observer; the Eritrean government agreed to become part of the governance of this new unitary Ethiopia. This integration was seen by some as a means to solidify peace between the two nations, but to others, it represented an alarming expansion of Eritrean influence and a threat to the autonomy of certain Ethiopian regions.

The architects of this agreement, according to the article, included the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), a faction of Ethiopia's ruling party, and the Ethiopianist Ginbot 7 (G7) party. These parties, along with Eritrea, have been accused of laying the groundwork for conflict since the Asmara peace agreement in 2018, which had initially ended two decades of hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The ambition to eliminate the TPLF and Oromo nationalist organizations was a clear signal of the brewing political storm. As the Ethiopian government, with the support of ANDM and G7, prepared for war, it unleashed a propaganda campaign to sway public opinion and justify its actions. The narrative was that the TPLF and similar groups posed a threat to the unity and stability of Ethiopia, and thus their removal was necessary.

The result of these political maneuvers was a bloody civil war, which, as of the writing of this article, has led to the loss of millions of lives and continues to cause destruction and suffering across Ethiopia. The conflict has not been limited to any single region; its impact has been felt nationwide, with reports of atrocities and human rights violations emerging from multiple fronts.

The ANDM, G7, and the Eritrean government have been identified as major contributors to the Ethiopian crisis, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his inner circle bearing significant responsibility for the decisions that led to the conflict. Their strategy, aimed at consolidating power and creating a unitary state, has instead resulted in a fractured nation, where ethnic tensions and political grievances have been exacerbated.

In conclusion, the agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea has had profound implications for the region. What was intended to be a strategic partnership for economic and political integration has become a catalyst for one of the most severe civil wars in recent history. As the conflict continues, the international community faces the challenge of addressing a complex humanitarian crisis and finding a pathway to peace for the embattled Ethiopian people.