Date: 02/01/2024Author: Martin Plaut.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia and Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi Abdi know how to spring surprises. Their deal, which will see Ethiopia recognize Somaliland’s long-held desire for independence, came on New Year’s Day. It was – as the BBC’s former Ethiopia correspondent, Elizabeth Blunt, put it:
Ethiopia is a master of using the ‘Good Day to Bury Bad News’ gambit. So on New Year’s Day, they signed an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland, which the latter is claiming as a recognition of statehood and which allows Ethiopia to lease 20km of its coastline. As Somalia considers this part of its territory, this is seriously provocative.
HTTPS://X.COM/BLUNTSPEAKING/STATUS/1742086310980956403?S=20
Somalia has – predictably – reacted furiously. After a cabinet meeting, this statement was released.
The cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Hamza AbdiBarre, held an extraordinary meeting. They described Ethiopia’s territorial violation in Somalia as illegal and recalled the Somali Ambassador to Ethiopia for consultation. Prime Minister Hamza expressed their determination to protect their sovereignty and said no one could violate any part of Somalia’s land, sea, and air.
HTTPS://X.COM/SONNALIVE/STATUS/1742108945060127053?S=20
What does the deal involve?
As ever, this is not entirely clear. The full Memorandum of Understanding [MoU] does not appear to have been published. The Addis Standard reported on the press releases it had received.
These indicated that:
The MoU will “pave the way to realize the aspiration of Ethiopia to secure access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports.” Furthermore, Redwan Hussien, National Security Advisor to PM Abiy, said the MoU will also “pave the way for accessing a leased Military base…”
Acknowledging PM Abiy’s “request for seaport access for their naval forces, President Muse Bihi Abdi expressed that Somaliland endured a long quest for official recognition from Ethiopia,” it said.
“Today, with immense pride, I announce the mutually beneficial agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia. In exchange for 20 KM sea access for the Ethiopian Naval Forces, leased for 50 years, Ethiopia will formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland, setting a precedent as the first nation to extend international recognition to our country,” said President Bihi.
Another piece of the puzzle was revealed by the Reuters news agency when it reported that:
Somaliland would also receive a stake in state-owned Ethiopian Airlines, Redwan Hussien said without providing further detail.
Somali reaction
While Somalilanders will be overjoyed that a dream they had nurtured since 1991 when they declared independence from Somalia, the Somali intelligence is infuriated.
Rashid Abdi, the respected Horn analyst, posted these observations from Somali leaders and commentators:
Special Envoy for Somalia-Somaliland talks: “The Ethiopian government’s actions today constitute a blatant disregard for international norms and legal frameworks, representing a brazen violation of Somali territorial sovereignty and undermining the progress achieved through ongoing dialogue between FGS and Somaliland that was nearing a resolution. This unilateral act jeopardizes regional stability and demonstrates a callous disregard for the Somali people’s aspirations for peace and self-determination. The Somali government will respond with a firm and measured statement in due course, outlining its next steps through international law and diplomatic channels. In this critical juncture, we urge the Somali people to remain united and steadfast in their support for their government’s unwavering commitment to defending the nation’s territorial integrity and safeguarding the well-being of its citizens.”
Former Prime Minister of Somalia: “This provocation by Ethiopia is a complete disregard of international laws & clear violation of Somalia’s unity & territorial integrity. The President & his Government must act swiftly & address this move directly with Ethiopia & the states that might be supporting this endeavor.”
Think tank analyst: “Ethiopia declared war on Somalia by (a) saying it will take Somalia’s territory and the Red Sea from breakaway Somaliland and (b) stating it plans to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state, despite knowing it is a region within Somalia. Abiy Ahmed Ali cannot and will not seize even 20 inches of Somalia‘s territory, let alone its Red Sea and adjacent land. Muse Bihi Abdi, President of the self-declared region of Somaliland, cannot grant it to him, even if Abiy tempts him with the promise of false recognition. Somalia and Somalis fear neither Ethiopia nor the battle to safeguard their land. They have defended their territory for five hundred years.”
Rashid Abdi himself has crucial observations about the implications of the agreement.
Ethiopia gains a stretch of coast on a 50-year lease, size 20 x 90 km, close to the border.
Ethiopia gains toehold on Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic waterway.
Somaliland gains stakes in Ethiopian Airlines.
Somaliland expects recognition from Addis (Addis is reluctant to speak about this part of the deal).
Ethiopia complicates its ties with Somalia.
Somaliland unravels all prospects of a deal with Mogadishu.
Djibouti is likely concerned about long-term fallout for its port business.
Eritrea and Egypt will be concerned about Ethiopia becoming a Red Sea/Gulf of Aden naval power.
What happens to Berbera Port? No clarity.
A Brief History of Somaliland
Somaliland was known for centuries as the land of Punt. But in the ‘Scramble for Africa’ in the late nineteenth century, it came under European control. This is an excerpt from the Encyclopedia Britannica’s entry:
When the European nations began to partition Africa among themselves in the late 19th century, France already possessed (from 1862) a coaling station at Obock near the mouth of the Red Sea, Egypt occupied other areas of the north coast, and southern Somaliland recognized the overlordship of the sultan of Zanzibar. By the end of the 1880s, France had expanded its holdings to the area of present Djibouti, Britain had established a protectorate over the north coast opposite its base at Aden, and Italy controlled the remainder of the country. In the north, the Muslim leader Sayyid Maxamed Cabdulle Xasan began a war against the British in 1899 and maintained his hold over the interior until he died in 1920. The Italians acquired Jubaland in the extreme south after World War I, and in 1936, they united their Somali possessions with Ethiopia to form Italian East Africa. The British won control of the Italian zone during World War II. 1960, British and Italian Somaliland were united to form the independent Republic of Somalia. French Somaliland (renamed the French Territory of the Afars and Issas in 1967) became independent as the Republic of Djibouti in 1977.
HTTPS://WWW.BRITANNICA.COM/PLACE/SOMALILAND
This is accurate in so far as it goes, but it obscures one crucial fact.
On 26 June 1960, the British Somaliland protectorate gained independence as the State of Somaliland. It was, therefore, an independent nation for just five days before it decided on 1 July to unite with the Trust Territory of Somalia to form the Somali Republic or Somalia.
It is this brief status as a formerly independent nation that the people of Somaliland have stressed as they have pressed to be recognized as an independent state once more.
The position of Britain, as the former colonial power
The British government has been close to Somalia, aiding its fight against al-Shabaab. But there has also been sympathy for the position of Somaliland. This was reflected in a debate in the British Parliament in 2022 when Gavin Williamson, a senior Conservative MP (not then a Minister), made this statement.
In 1960, Somaliland emerged independent from the British Empire after many years as the British Somaliland protectorate. For five days, it was independent before it took the step to merge with what was then the Trust Territory of Somaliland, historically Italian, to form a union. Both nations entered that union with optimism—a sense and a view of creating a pan-Somalia where all Somalis could come together. The hope for so many of those in Somaliland was that this would be a union of equals.
Sadly, over the following 30 years, those hopes and aspirations for what might have been were not fulfilled. Instead, as the years progressed, the situation got worse, with military dictatorships and, tragically, people from the north of Somalia in historically British Somaliland being discriminated against. What started to emerge was attacks on civilians. There were mass killings of tens of thousands of Somali civilians. It was one of the few conflicts where fighter jets took off from cities in one area to bomb the towns that they had taken off from, indiscriminately killing thousands of civilians.
HTTPS://HANSARD.PARLIAMENT.UK/COMMONS/2022-01-18/DEBATES/8DBF2CDF-6DDF-4E0A-A2C6-9D677628EBFB/UKGOVERNMENTRECOGNITIONOFSOMALILAND
In the same debate, a Minister, Chris Heaton-Harris, had warm words for Somaliland but stopped short of talking about independence.
Today, we enjoy a close partnership with Somaliland. We are the only Western country with a permanent office in Hargeisa, through which we engage with the Somaliland Government on various issues—from trade and investment to climate change and development. The Somaliland authorities also have an office in London, and we have regular contact with their UK representative and his team.
HTTPS://HANSARD.PARLIAMENT.UK/COMMONS/2022-01-18/DEBATES/8DBF2CDF-6DDF-4E0A-A2C6-9D677628EBFB/UKGOVERNMENTRECOGNITIONOFSOMALILAND#CONTRIBUTION-3D3F3A0A-307B-44DA-8314-F0C3501B9126
Where does this leave Somaliland?
Until Ethiopia recognized Somaliland, no African state had acknowledged the independence it declared in 1991.
In June 2020, the leaders of Somalia and Somaliland held a Consultations Summit in Djibouti. In October 2022, the UN Security Council encouraged the resumption of dialogue between the governments of Somalia and Somaliland to “build confidence and strengthen political coordination.”
The African Union sent a fact-finding mission to Somaliland in 2005. The mission’s report explains that Somaliland’s territory is defined by the colonial borders inherited from the British colonial rule on accession to independence in 1960:
Somaliland has territory as defined by the colonial borders inherited by British colonial rule on accession to independence in 1960. In the north, the country is bordered by the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden adjoining the Indian Ocean; Puntland State borders it on the east, while Ethiopia neighbors it on the west. To the northwest, Somaliland is bordered by Djibouti.
The AU mission said that since declaring independence in 1991, it has been “steadily laying the foundations of a democratic State.” It said the problems confronting Somaliland stem from a) the legacy of a political union with Somalia and b) the lack of recognition of Somaliland as an “independent sovereign state.” The report observes that Somaliland’s search for recognition is “historically unique and self-justified in African political history. Objectively viewed, the case should not be linked to the notion of ‘opening a Pandora’s box’”.
HTTPS://RESEARCHBRIEFINGS.FILES.PARLIAMENT.UK/DOCUMENTS/CBP-9733/CBP-9733.PDF
But here, the African Union is wrong. The African Union has recognized several states that were not independent in the 1960’s. One only needs to think of South Sudan, recognized on 9 July 2011 as the outcome of an agreement that ended Africa’s longest-running civil war.
If Ethiopia has recognized Somaliland’s status as independent (and as Rashid Abdi points out, this is not entirely clear), then others may follow. These were turbulent times in the Horn of Africa even before this happened. It is even more turbulent now.
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