Force field analysis is a useful technique for evaluating the forces for and against a particular decision, change, or action. In this case, the force field analysis is based on the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Somaliland and Ethiopia. Here is an analysis of the forces for and against the MoU:
Forces in Favor of the MoU:
1. Ethiopia: As a powerhouse in the region, Ethiopia brings influence, resources, and strategic importance to the agreement.
2. Somaliland: Somaliland's functioning democratic system, stability, and strategic location make it an attractive partner for the MoU.
3. Israel: With its status as a Middle East democracy leader, Israel's support adds international legitimacy and potential benefits to the MoU.
4. 36 African countries: The support of a significant number of African countries provides regional backing and solidarity for the MoU.
5. Taiwan: As a leading technology and democracy advocate, Taiwan's support can contribute expertise and resources to the MoU.
6. UK: The UK's role as a technical partner and economic booster of Somaliland can provide valuable support and resources for the MoU.
7. Majority of UN members, including the Security Council: International recognition and support from the majority of UN members, including influential Security Council members, bolster the legitimacy of the MoU.
Forces Against the MoU:
1. Somalia: Given its historical rivalry with Somaliland, Somalia may work against the MoU due to political and territorial disputes.
2. Al-Shabaab: As a terrorist group based in Somalia and elsewhere in East Africa and the Horn of Africa, Al-Shabaab may seek to disrupt the MoU and create instability.
3. Eritrea: The government of Eritrea, characterized as a dictatorship, may oppose the MoU due to its own regional interests and alliances.
4. Qatar: As a country accused of sponsoring terrorism, Qatar's opposition to the MoU may stem from geopolitical and strategic considerations.
5. Egypt: Concerns related to Nile water and regional dynamics may motivate Egypt to oppose the MoU.
6. Djibouti: With self-interest in financial matters, Djibouti may resist the MoU if it perceives potential economic losses.
7. US: The US military base in the Red Sea, driven by self-interest, may complicate the geopolitical landscape and create friction related to the MoU.
8. Turkey: As a country accused of sponsoring terrorism, Turkey's opposition to the MoU may derive from its regional interests and alliances.
In conclusion, the force field analysis indicates a complex array of forces for and against the MoU between Somaliland and Ethiopia. The analysis underscores the importance of considering these forces and their potential impact on the success and implementation of the MoU.
Xiinxalli dirree humnaa tooftaa faayidaa qabu humnoota murtii, jijjiirama ykn gocha murtaa’e tokkoof deggeruu fi mormuu madaaluuf gargaarudha. Haala kana keessatti xiinxalli dirree humnaa kan bu’uureffame Yaadannoo Waliigaltee (MoU) Somaaleelaandii fi Itiyoophiyaa gidduu jiru irratti. Xiinxalli humnoota Waliigaltee kana deggeranii fi morman kunooti:
Humnoonni Waliigaltee kana Deeggaran:
1. Itiyoophiyaa: Akka humna naannichaatti Itoophiyaan dhiibbaa, qabeenya, fi barbaachisummaa tarsiimoo waliigaltee kanaaf fiddi.
2. Somaliland: Sirni dimokiraasii Somaliland hojiirra jiru, tasgabbiin, fi bakki tarsiimoo qabduun waliigaltee kanaaf michuu hawwataa ta’a.
3. Israa’el: Deeggarsi Israa’el akka hoggantuun dimokiraasii Baha Giddu Galeessaatti qabduun seera qabeessummaa idil-addunyaa fi faayidaa waliigaltee kanaaf argachuu danda’u dabalata.
4. Biyyoota Afrikaa 36: Deeggarsi biyyoota Afrikaa baay’ee ta’an waliigaltee kanaaf deeggarsa naannoo fi gamtaa ni kenna.
5. Taayiwaan: Akka leelliftuu teeknooloojii fi dimokiraasii adda dureetti, deeggarsi Taayiwaan ogummaa fi qabeenya waliigaltee kanaaf gumaachuu danda’a.
6. UK: Gaheen UK akka michuu teeknikaa fi dinagdee Somaliland guddiftuutti qabdu waliigaltee kanaaf deeggarsa fi qabeenya gatii guddaa qabu kennuu dandeessi.
7. Mana Maree Nageenyaa dabalatee miseensota Dhaabbata Mootummoota Gamtoomanii harki caalaan: Miseensoota Mana Maree Nageenyaa dhiibbaa qaban dabalatee miseensota UN harka caalu irraa beekamtii idil-addunyaa fi deeggarsa argachuun seera qabeessummaa Waliigaltee kanaa ni cimsa.
Humnoonni Waliigaltee Mormii:
1. Somaaliyaa: Dorgommii seenaa Somaalilaandii waliin qabdu yoo ilaalle, Somaaliyaan waldhabdee siyaasaa fi naannoo irraa kan ka’e Waliigaltee kana mormuun hojjechuu dandeessi.
2. Al-Shabaab: Akka garee shororkeessaa Somaaliyaa fi bakka biraa Baha Afrikaa fi Gaanfa Afrikaa keessatti hundaa’eetti, Al-Shabaab Waliigaltee kana jeequu fi tasgabbii dhabuu uumuuf yaalu mala.
3. Eertiraa: Mootummaan Eertiraa, kan akka mootummaa abbaa irreetti amala qabu, dantaa naannoo fi gamtaa mataa isaa irraa kan ka’e Waliigaltee kana mormuu danda’a.
4. Qaxar: Akka biyya shororkeessummaa ispoonsara gooteen himatamteetti, mormiin Qaxar Waliigaltee kana irratti qabdu ilaalcha ji’oopoolitikaa fi tarsiimoo irraa maddu ta’uu danda’a.
5. Masrii: Yaaddoon bishaan Naayilii fi daayinamiksii naannoo waliin walqabatee jiru Masriin waliigaltee kana akka mormtu kakaasuu mala.
6. Jibuutiin: Dhimma maallaqaa irratti dantaa ofii qabaachuun, Jibuutiin kasaaraa dinagdee mudachuu danda’u yoo hubatte waliigaltee kana mormuu dandeessi.
7. US: Buufatni waraanaa US Galaana Diimaa keessatti dantaa ofiitiin kan oofu, haala ji’oopoolitikaa walxaxaa taasisuu fi waliigaltee waliigaltee kanaan walqabatee waldhabdee uumuu danda’a.
8. Turkii: Akka biyya shororkeessummaa ispoonsara gooteen himatamteetti, mormiin Turkiyaan Waliigaltee kana irratti qabdu dantaa fi gamtaa naannoo ishee irraa kan maddu ta’uu mala.
Xumura irratti, xiinxalli dirree humnaa humnoota walxaxaa waliigaltee Somaaleelaandii fi Itoophiyaa gidduutti taasifamee fi morman agarsiisa. Xiinxalli kun humnoota kanaa fi milkaa’inaafi hojiirra oolmaa Waliigaltee Waliigaltee kanaa irratti dhiibbaa isaan geessisuu danda’an ilaaluun barbaachisaa ta’uu hubachiisa.
የግዳጅ መስክ ትንተና ለአንድ የተወሰነ ውሳኔ፣ ለውጥ ወይም ድርጊት የሚቃረኑ ኃይሎችን ለመገምገም ጠቃሚ ዘዴ ነው። በዚህ ጉዳይ ላይ የሀይል መስክ ትንተና በሶማሌላንድ እና በኢትዮጵያ መካከል በተደረገው የመግባቢያ ስምምነት (MoU) ላይ የተመሰረተ ነው። የመግባቢያ ሰነዱን የሚደግፉ እና የሚቃወሙ ኃይሎች ትንታኔ እነሆ፡-
ReplyDeleteየመግባቢያ ሰነዱን የሚደግፉ ኃይሎች፡-
1. ኢትዮጵያ፡- በቀጣናው የስልጣን ባለቤት እንደመሆኗ መጠን በስምምነቱ ላይ ተፅዕኖን፣ ሃብትን እና ስትራቴጂካዊ ጠቀሜታን ታመጣለች።
2. ሶማሊላንድ፡ የሶማሌላንድ ተግባራዊ ዴሞክራሲያዊ ስርዓት፣ መረጋጋት እና ስትራቴጂካዊ አቀማመጥ ለስምምነቱ መግባቢያ አጋር ያደርጋታል።
3. እስራኤል፡ የመካከለኛው ምስራቅ ዲሞክራሲ መሪ ሆና በመገኘቷ፣ የእስራኤል ድጋፍ አለማቀፋዊ ህጋዊነትን እና በስምምነቱ ላይ ሊኖሩ የሚችሉ ጥቅሞችን ይጨምራል።
4. 36 የአፍሪካ ሀገራት፡- ቁጥራቸው ቀላል የማይባሉ የአፍሪካ ሀገራት ድጋፍ ለመግባቢያ ሰነዱ ቀጣናዊ ድጋፍ እና አጋርነት ይሰጣል።
5. ታይዋን፡ እንደ መሪ የቴክኖሎጂ እና የዲሞክራሲ ተሟጋች፣ የታይዋን ድጋፍ ለመግባቢያ ሰነዱ ልዩ እውቀትና ግብአት ሊያበረክት ይችላል።
6. ዩኬ፡ የዩናይትድ ኪንግደም ሚና የሶማሌላንድ ቴክኒካል አጋር እና ኢኮኖሚያዊ ማበልፀጊያ ለመግባቢያ ሰነዱ ጠቃሚ ድጋፍ እና ግብአት ሊሰጥ ይችላል።
7. የፀጥታው ምክር ቤትን ጨምሮ አብዛኛዎቹ የተባበሩት መንግስታት ድርጅት አባላት፡- ከአብዛኞቹ የተመድ አባላት አለም አቀፍ እውቅና እና ድጋፍ፣ ተፅዕኖ ፈጣሪ የፀጥታው ምክር ቤት አባላትን ጨምሮ የመግባቢያ ሰነዱን ህጋዊነት ያጠናክራል።
በስምምነቱ ላይ ያሉ ኃይሎች፡-
1. ሶማሊያ፡ ከሶማሌላንድ ጋር ካላት ታሪካዊ ፉክክር አንፃር፣ ሶማሊያ በፖለቲካ እና በግዛት አለመግባባቶች የተነሳ የስምምነቱ ውል ላይ ልትሰራ ትችላለች።
2. አልሸባብ፡- በሶማሊያ እና በሌሎች የምስራቅ አፍሪካ እና የአፍሪካ ቀንድ አካባቢ አሸባሪ ቡድን እንደመሆኑ መጠን አልሸባብ የመግባቢያ ሰነዱን ለማደናቀፍ እና አለመረጋጋት ሊፈጥር ይችላል።
3. ኤርትራ፡ በአምባገነንነት የሚታወቀው የኤርትራ መንግስት በራሱ አህጉራዊ ጥቅምና ጥምረት የተነሳ ስምምነቱን ሊቃወም ይችላል።
4. ኳታር፡ ሽብርተኝነትን ትደግፋለች ተብሎ የተከሰሰች ሀገር እንደመሆኗ መጠን ኳታር በስምምነቱ ላይ የምትከተለው ተቃውሞ ከጂኦፖለቲካዊ እና ስልታዊ ጉዳዮች የመነጨ ሊሆን ይችላል።
5. ግብፅ፡- ከአባይ ውሃ እና ከአካባቢው ተለዋዋጭነት ጋር የተያያዙ ስጋቶች ግብፅ የመግባቢያ ሰነዱን እንድትቃወም ሊያነሳሳት ይችላል።
6. ጅቡቲ፡- በፋይናንሺያል ጉዳዮች ላይ የራስን ጥቅም በማሳየት፣ ጅቡቲ ሊኖር የሚችለውን የኢኮኖሚ ኪሳራ ከተገነዘበች የመግባቢያ ሰነዱን ልትቃወም ትችላለች።
7. ዩኤስ፡ በቀይ ባህር ላይ ያለው የዩኤስ ጦር ሰፈር በራስ ፍላጎት ተነሳስቶ የጂኦፖለቲካዊ መልክዓ ምድሩን ያወሳስበዋል እና ከመግባቢያ ሰነዱ ጋር የተያያዘ ግጭት ሊፈጥር ይችላል።
8. ቱርክ፡- ሽብርተኝነትን ደግፋለች ተብሎ የተከሰሰች ሀገር እንደመሆኗ መጠን ቱርክ በስምምነቱ ላይ የምትቃወመው ከክልላዊ ጥቅሟ እና ጥምረቶችዋ ሊሆን ይችላል።
በማጠቃለያው የሀይል መስክ ትንተና በሶማሌላንድ እና በኢትዮጵያ መካከል ለተደረገው የመግባቢያ ስምምነት እና ተቃዋሚ ሃይሎች የተደራጁ ሃይሎች ስብስብ መሆኑን ያሳያል። ትንታኔው እነዚህን ሃይሎች ግምት ውስጥ ማስገባት አስፈላጊ መሆኑን እና በስምምነቱ መግባቢያ ሰነድ ስኬት እና ትግበራ ላይ ሊኖራቸው የሚችለውን ተፅእኖ ያሳያል።