Lunch with Trump: US Africa strategy

A lunch at the White House with an unexpected group of African leaders shows that Trump’s African policy is active, opportunistic, and shaped by personal relationships.

 

Research Director; Director, Africa Programme


On 9 July, President Donald Trump will host a business lunch in the White House with leaders from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal. The meeting will focus on ‘commercial opportunities’ that could benefit American companies and African partners.

The lunch signals that the Trump administration does not intend to ignore the African continent and plans to engage selectively. The aims are clear: to secure mineral deals and supply chains and compete with China.  

This reflects the position set out by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in early July, when he stated that the US was abandoning what he called a charity-based foreign aid model in preference to working with nations that demonstrate ‘both the ability and willingness to help themselves’. In the future, US ambassadors in Africa will be rated on the number of commercial deals they strike. 

This transactional approach to foreign policy is familiar to many African leaders. Indeed, it is a preferred method for some, who will be content to see old US narratives – focused on good governance, human rights and institution building – replaced by deal-making.

The Trump approach

However, choosing guests for the presidential lunch reminds us that the Trump administration’s approach can be random. The West and Central African leaders invited come from relatively small economies, most of which are not obvious priorities for the US. 

It would be a mistake to overinterpret this guest list—the invitation to Liberian President Joseph Boakai was opportunistic, as he was already in the US. But some motives are clear. 

The presidents of Guinea-Bissau and Mauritania will no doubt discuss how to address illicit drugs and migration routes.

Including Senegal and Gabon likely shows some intent to reward countries that have recently achieved constitutionally mandated political transitions following elections (especially in the case of Gabon following its 2023 coup). The presidents of Guinea-Bissau and Mauritania will no doubt discuss how to address illicit drugs and migration routes.

The jackpot winner is Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. His invitation is curious because he has no US Embassy in Bissau and minimal US trade interest. Embalo has travelled regularly to Russia, Europe and Asia, depicting himself as an international statesman. 

But he faces significant internal challenges, remaining in office since postponing elections scheduled for December. The legality of his continued administration is uncertain, and Trump’s invitation represents a remarkable show of support for his position.  

Tariffs and Africa

African countries are beginning to see variability in the Trump administration’s approach. Some new forms of US engagement are far from positive. In April, the tiny African nation of Lesotho, which primarily exports diamonds and clothing, received the highest ‘Liberation Day’ tariff of 50 per cent simply because it did not import goods from the US and had a massive trade imbalance.  

South Africa found itself in the administration’s crosshairs almost immediately, with the White House alleging state-sponsored discrimination against white farmers. Washington is also hostile to Pretoria’s International Court of Justice case against Israel regarding Gaza. 

Trump sent a letter to President Cyril Ramaphosa on 7 July informing him that South Africa faces a 30 per cent reciprocal tariff from 1 August due to trade barriers. Pretoria is anxiously seeking ways to reach an accommodation with Washington, including by offering favourable mineral deals and signalling a willingness to import significant amounts of US gas. 

However, the relationship is further tested by South Africa’s BRICS membership. Trump is suspicious of the group and has threatened to impose additional tariffs on BRICS-aligned countries. That could have profound implications for South Africa and fellow BRICS members Egypt and Ethiopia. 

Personal ties

African leaders will also notice that individuals with personal ties to President Trump have significantly impacted his African policy. South African-born Elon Musk certainly did in the administration's early days, regarding relations with President Ramaphosa.

Massad Boulos's appointment as Senior Advisor for Africa in April boosted Trump's Africa diplomacy. 

In April, Trump’s Africa diplomacy was boosted by the appointment of Massad Boulos as Senior Advisor for Africa. Boulos has already served as the president's senior advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs.

Boulos, an American Lebanese businessman, is the father of one of Trump’s sons-in-law. He is fluent in French and made a fortune selling cars in Nigeria. 

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Officials who have worked with him have been impressed by his mediation and deal-making skills and credit him as the principal architect of an agreement reached on 27 June in Washington to end the confrontation between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda. 

Time will tell whether that deal will stick – and whether Washington will turn from carrots to sticks like sanctions if the deal threatens to fail.

Boulos has also signalled that he plans to meet with foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt in Washington to revive the ‘Quartet’ initiative and seek an end to the brutal civil war in Sudan, which the UN has called the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

Individuals like Boulos, who can reach the president, clearly matter within the Trump administration. His influence shows how personal relationships can help drive policy towards parts of the world that this administration would not usually prioritise. 

Opportunity knocks

The lunch on 9 July is the first of a quarterly initiative by the White House to host African leaders. Plans are for a larger US–Africa summit in September around the UN General Assembly. 

African states may find ways to benefit from this administration’s approach.

Like so many initiatives from the Trump administration, they may not happen or take a different form. How practical this transactional approach will counter Beijing’s influence in Africa remains to be seen. 

However, Trump’s African policy plays out, and his use of extended family to conduct transactional diplomacy and deal-making is familiar to many African leaders. Although transactional, the Trump administration’s increasing engagement with Africa could present real opportunities. African states may find ways to benefit from this administration’s approach, including through lunch invitations to the White House.