The Fourth Wave: Populism, Nativism, and Authoritarianism in the Ethiopian Context

 

    

The Fourth Wave: Populism, Nativism, and Authoritarianism in the Ethiopian Context

Ethiopia, Africa's oldest independent country, has long been a significant regional player with a rich cultural heritage, diverse ethnic composition, and a complex political history. In recent years, Ethiopia has witnessed a notable shift in its political landscape, driven by a resurgence of populist and nativist sentiments that are, in some ways, characteristic of a broader "fourth wave" of populism and authoritarianism globally. This wave, defined by the assertion of ethno-nationalist ideologies, centralised solid control, and sometimes repressive governance, has profound implications for Ethiopia’s stability and its role in the Horn of Africa.

This article will explore the social, political, and historical context in which these dynamics have emerged and the factors that have shaped the rise of populism, nativism, and authoritarianism in Ethiopia.

The Political Landscape: Ethiopia’s Precedents and the Shift Toward Populism

Ethiopia has a unique and highly centralised political history, shaped by imperial rule, military dictatorship, and, more recently, ethnic federalism. This political tradition, marked by strong, centralised control, was established under Emperor Haile Selassie and continued under the Marxist-Leninist Derg regime, which came to power after his overthrow in 1974. The Derg’s brutal authoritarian rule, which claimed thousands of lives in what became known as the "Red Terror," was a transformative but deeply traumatic period in Ethiopian history.

In 1991, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnic-based political parties, took control after defeating the Derg. Under the EPRDF, Ethiopia embraced ethnic federalism to manage the country’s diverse ethnic groups, providing them with autonomy while maintaining strict central oversight. However, the EPRDF’s model eventually proved unsustainable, leading to grievances, ethnic competition, and rising demands for greater independence. By 2018, widespread protests, primarily among Ethiopia's largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara, forced the resignation of then-Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, marking a significant turning point.

Rise of Populist Politics: The Emergence of Abiy Ahmed

The appointment of Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister in 2018 was initially seen as a harbinger of reform. Abiy, an Oromo, promised democratic reforms, the end of political repression, and a path to peace and unity. Within months, he released political prisoners, lifted bans on opposition groups, and engaged in a peace deal with Eritrea, for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

However, as reforms progressed, Abiy’s approach increasingly exhibited populist characteristics. His rhetoric emphasised Ethiopian unity and sought to downplay ethnic divisions, resonating with citizens who were frustrated by years of ethnic-based conflict. This rhetoric was accompanied by a vital nativist element, drawing on Ethiopia’s historic pride and position as an ancient, sovereign state and positioning Abiy’s administration as a “protector” of Ethiopian identity against foreign and internal threats. At the same time, this emphasis on unity sometimes downplayed or dismissed the genuine grievances of Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic groups.

Nativism and Ethno-Nationalism in Ethiopia

Nativist sentiments have grown alongside populism in Ethiopia, with Abiy's administration framing various ethnic conflicts and separatist demands as threats to Ethiopian identity. This shift mirrors nativist movements worldwide, which often frame a "pure" national identity against perceived threats from minority groups or outside influences. In Ethiopia, this has meant prioritising Ethiopian identity over ethnic-specific demands and advocating for the state's territorial integrity against rising regionalist movements.

In a country as diverse as Ethiopia, with over 80 ethnic groups and a deeply rooted history of ethnic identities, the nativist discourse has contributed to tensions. Critics argue that Abiy’s push for a centralised Ethiopian identity risks alienating ethnic groups that feel their identities and political rights are being undermined. This dynamic has been particularly evident in conflicts with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), whose dissatisfaction with Abiy's centralised policies led to a deadly civil conflict in Tigray beginning in late 2020.

The Shift Toward Authoritarianism

Amidst Ethiopia's political transformations, authoritarian practices have also been resurgent. While Abiy initially promised a more democratic Ethiopia, his administration has, in recent years, reverted to repressive tactics in response to growing security concerns and internal strife. Political opponents and activists have reported intimidation and imprisonment, while internet blackouts and censorship have become increasingly common.

This shift reflects a global trend where populist leaders, having risen to power on promises of reform, later adopt authoritarian measures to maintain control. In Ethiopia, the war in Tigray, instability in Oromia, and tensions in other regions have given the government a rationale for heavy-handed measures. International observers have criticised the government’s approach, arguing that it could endanger democratic reforms and heighten regional instability.

The Broader Implications for Ethiopia and the Region

The rise of populism, nativism, and authoritarianism in Ethiopia has significant implications for the Horn of Africa, a region already troubled by instability. Ethiopia has historically played a stabilising role in East Africa as a prominent and influential country. However, its internal divisions and increasing authoritarianism could limit its ability to act as a regional leader.

Ethiopia’s close ties with Eritrea and its involvement in Somalia’s internal security highlight its central role in regional security. Nevertheless, if Ethiopia's internal conflicts escalate, it could inadvertently destabilise neighbouring states by displacing populations, exacerbating border tensions, and potentially encouraging separatist movements elsewhere in the region. Ethiopia’s trajectory will thus not only shape its future but may also influence regional peace and stability.

Conclusion: The Path Forward for Ethiopia

The fourth wave of populism, nativism, and authoritarianism in Ethiopia underscores the challenges of balancing national unity with ethnic diversity in a rapidly changing political environment. Ethiopia’s experience reflects a more significant trend in which populist leaders capitalise on national identity, often with authoritarian overtones, to address complex social divisions. For Ethiopia, maintaining a stable, unified country requires a delicate balance between celebrating Ethiopia's historic national identity and respecting the diversity of its people.

While populism and nativism can provide short-term stability, they risk deepening ethnic divides and eroding democratic reforms if unchecked. The coming years will be crucial as Ethiopia navigates the complex path between national cohesion and regional autonomy, with significant implications for its future and that of the broader Horn of Africa.