In 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden shifted the course of America’s engagement with Ethiopia, ending the Trump administration's aggressive approach. Under Trump, U.S. policy leaned on Ethiopia to resolve tensions with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), pushing Addis Ababa into a challenging position amid complex regional dynamics. With Trump re-elected in 2024, Ethiopia is facing the possibility of a revived U.S. strategy that pivots around Russia to counter China’s growing influence in Africa. This move could add fresh layers of tension to the region.
Trump’s Previous Stance: Pressuring Ethiopia
Under Trump’s first term, the U.S. adopted a hardline approach regarding the GERD, siding with Egypt's demand for a mediated solution to Ethiopia’s plans to harness the Nile River for electricity. Washington's strategy was broadly perceived as punitive toward Ethiopia, as Trump hinted at possible punitive measures, including cutting off aid if Ethiopia proceeded unilaterally. Trump’s alignment with Egypt isolated Ethiopia diplomatically and signalled Washington’s willingness to use leverage over one of its most strategically located African partners.
Ethiopia’s Complex Regional Web: Saudi-UAE Rivalry and UAE Influence
Ethiopia’s regional isolation has been exacerbated by ongoing rivalries between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of whom wield significant influence across the Horn of Africa. With substantial investments and an active military presence in nearby Somaliland, Abu Dhabi has entrenched itself deeply within Ethiopia’s regional network. Its influence on Ethiopian domestic politics has grown as the UAE seeks to expand its role across the Red Sea corridor, balancing its interests against those of both regional allies and competitors.
For Ethiopia, navigating this dynamic has proven increasingly difficult. The Ethiopian government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has had to balance regional interests while attempting to pursue its developmental and diplomatic priorities. This delicate situation underscores Ethiopia’s vulnerability and its need for consistent international alliances—something that a revived Trump administration, with its erratic policies, may not guarantee.
The Russia Factor in Trump’s New Strategy
With Trump back in office, his focus might shift to a strategy that leverages Russia’s influence in countering China’s rapidly expanding footprint across Africa. China has become a significant economic partner for countries across the continent, including Ethiopia, which has benefited from Beijing’s infrastructure investments. Trump could explore ways to strengthen Russia’s role in Africa, creating an indirect U.S. counterbalance to China’s influence, which could further complicate Ethiopia’s alliances.
This potential pivot toward a Russia-centered strategy would bring new complications for Ethiopia. Already under scrutiny for alleged human rights violations during its internal conflicts, Ethiopia may find it harder to align with a U.S. that positions itself against China and, indirectly, its African partners who lean on Beijing. If Trump’s revived foreign policy favours Moscow over Beijing, Addis Ababa could find itself forced to navigate an even more complex diplomatic landscape that pressures Ethiopia to make difficult choices with lasting regional repercussions.
Ethiopia’s Domestic Tensions on the Global Stage
Its internal struggles compound Ethiopia’s geopolitical challenges, which have drawn widespread international attention. Following conflicts in the Tigray region and continuing instability, Ethiopia’s domestic politics are scrutinised globally, with various international actors expressing concerns over humanitarian and human rights issues. Under Biden, this scrutiny led to cuts in aid and a tougher diplomatic stance on Ethiopia’s government.
For Ethiopia’s leadership, this global focus means limited space to manoeuvre as it grapples with domestic and external pressures. Trump’s potential shift in policy may alleviate some pressure on Ethiopia’s human rights record if his administration focuses more on geopolitical alliances than internal governance issues. However, this shift could come at the cost of pushing Ethiopia deeper into contentious alignments amid great-power competition.
Conclusion: Abiy Ahmed’s Difficult Balancing Act
For Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Trump’s return complicates a precarious balancing act. With potential U.S. support for Russia as a bulwark against China’s influence in Africa, Ethiopia could be caught in a tug-of-war that challenges its economic and political autonomy. Abiy’s government, already under strain from internal instability, now faces the risk of renewed U.S. pressure, possible isolation from key neighbours, and a mounting struggle to maintain diplomatic equilibrium.
Trump’s revived approach could place Ethiopia back into a diplomatic predicament reminiscent of his first term, which tests its alliances, economic aspirations, and role in a changing geopolitical landscape. For Ethiopia, the stakes are high: maintaining stability at home, avoiding diplomatic isolation, and preserving partnerships with influential global players. As global eyes turn to the Horn of Africa again, Ethiopia's leadership navigates a tightrope that leaves little room for error.
The way forward
Ethiopia's journey to align with Trump's America promises to be a labyrinthine adventure, rife with intricate regional dynamics and the tug-of-war between global powers. Here are some imaginative scenarios to consider:
Expanding Maritime Horizons
Ethiopia might seek to solidify its connection with Somaliland, a partner in a 50-year agreement granting military and commercial access to the Red Sea. This strategic alliance could empower Ethiopia to lessen its reliance on other regional players.
Walking the Tightrope of Regional Interests
As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed navigates the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both notable players in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia could find itself in the delicate role of mediator, balancing its ties while pursuing its developmental ambitions.
The Russian Wild Card and the China Connection
Trump's possible pivot towards Russia to challenge China's growing footprint in Africa may throw a curveball into Ethiopia’s diplomatic game. This scenario could compel Ethiopia to reevaluate its economic entanglement with China and the prospect of forging stronger bonds with Russia.
Human Rights Spotlight and the Quest for Stability
Ethiopia’s human rights standing is poised to face continued scrutiny, potentially influencing U.S. aid and diplomatic support. While Trump's focus on geopolitical partnerships may provide a bit of leeway, Ethiopia cannot overlook the necessity of addressing its internal challenges and humanitarian issues.
Essential Considerations
_Upholding does compound _Steering clear of diplomatic solitude
_Nurturing alliances with international stakeholders
_Maneuvering through great-power rivalries
Ethiopia's diplomatic odyssey ultimately hinges on its skilful navigation of these multifaceted challenges as it strives to strike a harmonious balance among regional priorities, global partnerships, and homegrown stability.
Scenario: How Ethiopia and Somaliland Could Draw Trump into the Horn of Africa to Stabilize Regional Tensions
With Trump’s re-election in 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland will potentially position themselves uniquely to shape U.S. policy toward the Horn of Africa. Though the region is not a current priority for Trump’s incoming administration, Ethiopia and Somaliland could make the case for American involvement by emphasising the regional tensions, the national security implications, and the strategic opportunities for the U.S. in the Horn.
Scenario Outline
1. Lobbying Trump’s Transition Team to Make the Horn a U.S. Priority
Ethiopia and Somaliland would immediately begin lobbying Trump’s transition team, contacting key advisors who could influence his foreign policy. Since the region is likely not on the radar for Trump’s administration, Ethiopia and Somaliland must work together to explain the intricate network of alliances and conflicts that threaten to destabilise the region. Their key messages would include:
The risk of a security vacuum in Somalia, where Al Shabaab could replicate the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan if Ethiopian anti-terrorist forces are withdrawn.
The strategic importance of Somaliland’s location in the Gulf of Aden-Red Sea region.
Ethiopia’s longstanding partnership with the U.S. and the disenchantment of the Ethiopian diaspora in the U.S. could serve as an influential political constituency for Trump.
If no intervention occurs, the goal would be to underscore the potential threat to U.S. interests and regional stability.
2. Promoting Somaliland’s Strategic Value and Push for Recognition
Somaliland’s push for international recognition could align with Trump’s pragmatic approach. Offering the possibility of a U.S. military base in Somaliland, Ethiopia, and Somaliland could tempt Trump to take a stand in recognition, emphasising Somaliland’s democratic governance, stability, and pro-U.S. stance as assets in the Horn. This would position Somaliland as a counterbalance to both Eritrea and Somalia, potentially shifting the regional dynamics in favour of a more stable, U.S.-aligned order.
Trump’s team might see an opportunity to establish a U.S. base in Somaliland, strengthening America’s footprint in a region heavily influenced by China and the Gulf states and Russia’s growing interest in the Red Sea corridor.
3. Reinforcing Economic Ties with Ethiopia through AGOA and Investment Opportunities
TrumTheersuaded to reinstate Ethiopia’s membership encroaching Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), rescinded under the condition that U.S. companies receive privileged access to Ethiopia’s market and privileges. This would restore a critical economic link between the U.S. and Ethiopia, incentivising Ethiopian growth in a way that counters Chinese influence.
Ethiopia could position this reinstatement as a “win-winemphasiseEthiopian economic growth and American companies seeking investment opportunities in Africa. This incentive could make Ethiopia a stronger U.S. ally, creating econfinancialbility that supports regional peace.
4. Highlighting the Security Risks of Eritrea and Egypt’s Alliances
With Eritrea’s president Isaias Afwerki traditionally considered a destdestabilisingce in the Horn, Ethiopia and Somaliland could urge Trump to curb Eritrea’s influence by reminding him of Eritrea’s alignment with Somalia and Egypt, nations opposing Ethiopia. Ethiopia could also eemphasise Egypt’s agreement with Eritrea and Somalia, which aims to isolate Ethiopia over the Nile dam dispute (GERD) and will prioritise stabilising the Hornitigate these tensions.
The recent corruption scandal involving former Senator Bob Menendez and his ties to Egypt could remind us of Cairo’s influence on U.S. foreign policy. Ethiopia and Somaliland could leverage this issue, framing Egypt as a potential instigator of regional conflict, to encourage Trump to pressure Egypt into a more responsible, stabstabilisinge in the Horn.
5. The Al Shabaab Threat: A National Security Argument
Ethiopia and Somaliland coudi emphasise that, if unchecked, Al Shabaab might exploit any instability in Somalia—especially if Ethiopian anti-terrorism troops are withdrawn. With Trump’s strong criticism of Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal, Ethiopia could frame Al Shabaab’s potential rise as an urgent issue that aligns with his anti-terrorism agenda. This argument would appeal to Trump’s national security instincts, suggesting that ignoring the Horn of Africa could create a scenario where the U.S. faces another costly and high-profile embarrassment similar to Afghanistan.
By framing Al Shabaab’s growth as a threat to U.S. security interests, Ethiopia and Somaliland could increase the odds that Trump’s administration will prioritise stabilising the Horn.
Possible Outcome
If Trump’s team responds positively to Ethiopia and Somaliland’s lobbying efforts, his administration could adopt a more hands-on approach in the Horn. This could include:
Providing diplomatic support for Somaliland’s recognition in exchange for establishing a U.S. military base.
Pressuring Egypt and Eritrea to de-escalate their stances toward Ethiopia, using U.S. influence to mediate or control their actions in the region.
Reinstating Ethiopia in AGOA is conditional on Ethiopia’s agreement to prioritise. Companies in its economic reforms would help stabilise Ethiopia’s economy and curb Chinese influence.
Deploying diplomatic or military support to prevent a resurgence of Al Shabaab in Somalia, thus aligning the U.S. with regional anti-terrorism efforts.
This proactive approach could shift the dynamics of the Horn, positioning the U.S. as a stabilising and enhancing Trump’s reputation as a peacemaker on the global stage. However, without careful diplomacy, the U.S. could risk exacerbating tensions if Egypt and Eritrea interpret American involvement as infringing on their regional ambitions.
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