An analytical article based on SWP Comment 19 | May 2026
The modern geopolitical map of Africa increasingly reveals a powerful yet controversial actor operating far beyond its territorial boundaries: the United Arab Emirates. Once known primarily as a Gulf commercial and financial hub, the UAE has evolved into an assertive middle power with a growing footprint across African conflict zones. From Sudan and Libya to Somalia and Ethiopia, Abu Dhabi's influence has become increasingly visible through military assistance, financial leverage, logistics networks, and relationships with local armed actors.
A recent analysis by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) portrays the UAE not as a stabilizing actor but as a disruptive force whose interventions have aggravated conflicts, prolonged wars, and weakened international conflict-resolution mechanisms.
A Strategy of Influence without Occupation
Unlike traditional military powers, the UAE rarely deploys large numbers of its own troops. Instead, it relies on an indirect model of influence built around local allies and proxy actors. This strategy minimizes political risks while maximizing strategic reach.
In Libya, the UAE backed General Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF), including support during military offensives against the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. In Sudan, Abu Dhabi is widely accused of becoming the principal external sponsor of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). In Somalia, its support extended to the Puntland Maritime Police Force and security structures in Somaliland.
Ethiopia presents a somewhat different case. During the Tigray conflict, the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reportedly relied heavily on Emirati drone technology, which many analysts argue helped shift the battlefield dynamics in Addis Ababa's favour.
Despite these differing contexts, a common pattern emerges: support directed toward actors capable of reshaping political and military balances.
Sudan: The Epicentre of Controversy
Sudan increasingly stands at the center of criticism concerning Emirati interventionism.
The RSF's capture of El-Fasher in late 2025 reportedly triggered mass atrocities and catastrophic humanitarian consequences. Numerous international observers identify the UAE as the RSF's critical external lifeline through military assistance, logistics networks, and financial support.
The consequences have been devastating. Sudan now faces one of the world's largest humanitarian crises, with millions displaced and widespread hunger threatening entire populations.
The controversy intensified after reports suggested suspicious cargo flights continued between the UAE and logistical routes through Ethiopia and Libya, allegedly facilitating support operations even amid broader regional instability.
Abu Dhabi strongly rejects such accusations and insists that it supports peace initiatives and humanitarian efforts. Yet accusations continue to surface from international observers and leaked investigative reports.
Economics and Geopolitics: More than Trade
Emirati engagement in Africa is often explained in terms of economic interests.
State-linked corporations such as DP World and AD Ports have invested heavily in ports and strategic infrastructure across Africa, including in Somalia, Tanzania, Mozambique, Senegal, and Egypt.
These projects form part of a wider effort to establish commercial corridors connecting Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Gulf.
However, economics alone cannot explain Emirati behaviour.
The UAE's broader geopolitical ambitions increasingly appear tied to competition with regional powers, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The relationship between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh has evolved from a strategic partnership toward quiet rivalry. While both countries seek influence in Africa and the Red Sea, they increasingly pursue competing visions.
Saudi Arabia generally favours a state-centred regional order and institutional stability.
The UAE often appears more comfortable operating through flexible networks, commercial leverage, and local power brokers.
This divergence became visible in Sudan and Yemen and increasingly affects Horn of Africa politics.
Ideology and Security Calculations
Another major driver behind Emirati policy appears to be ideological.
The ruling leadership in Abu Dhabi strongly opposes movements associated with the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam. Since the Arab uprisings, the UAE has pursued aggressive policies aimed at limiting the influence of actors perceived as Islamist or politically mobilizing.
This ideological framework has shaped intervention choices throughout the Middle East and Africa.
However, critics note inconsistencies. Some Emirati alliances appear driven less by ideology than by pragmatic calculations and strategic convenience.
The Erosion of International Norms
Perhaps the most significant concern raised by the SWP analysis is not merely the UAE's military role but its broader impact on international governance.
Repeated allegations of violations of UN arms embargoes in Libya and Sudan raise questions about the credibility of enforcement.
When external powers openly circumvent international restrictions without consequences, multilateral institutions lose authority.
The concern extends beyond the UAE alone. Turkey, Russia, Egypt, Iran, and other regional actors have also become increasingly involved in African conflicts.
The result is a regional security environment increasingly characterized by overlapping proxy wars and fragmented sovereignty.
Europe Faces a Strategic Dilemma
The SWP authors argue that Germany and Europe have historically treated the UAE as a valuable economic and diplomatic partner while avoiding direct confrontation over its activities in Africa.
This approach may now face growing scrutiny.
European interests—stable trade routes, migration management, regional integration, and conflict prevention—are increasingly affected by African instability.
The central question is no longer whether the UAE possesses influence in Africa.
Rather, it is whether that influence contributes to regional stability or whether it increasingly reinforces cycles of fragmentation and proxy competition.
As geopolitical rivalries intensify across the Red Sea and Horn of Africa, the answer may shape the future security architecture of an entire region.
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