Summary of The Communist Manifesto

Summary of The Communist Manifesto

By Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels (1848)

 Core Ideas

1. History as Class Struggle

All history is the history of class struggles between oppressors and the oppressed.

In Marx's time, this was framed as the bourgeoisie (capitalist ruling class) vs. the proletariat (working class).

In feudal times, it was lords vs. serfs; in modern times, capitalists vs. workers.

2. Capitalism and Its Contradictions

Capitalism revolutionised production but also exploited labour and concentrated wealth.

It creates inequality, alienation, and instability, laying the ground for its own downfall.

3. Proletarian Revolution

Marx and Engels call for the working class (proletariat) to unite, overthrow the capitalist system, and seize political power.

The goal is a classless, stateless, and egalitarian society—communism.

4. Abolition of Private Property

Not personal property, but the abolition of private ownership of the means of production (land, factories, etc.)

Calls for collective ownership, free education, progressive taxation, and the end of inherited wealth.

5. Internationalism

The working class has no country—“Workers of the world, unite!”

Opposes nationalism when it serves the ruling elites.

 Using the Marxist Framework to Analyse Ideological Conflict in Ethiopia

Context: Ethiopia's Ideological Divide

Followers of the Old Feudal Regime:

These include conservative elites, centralists, and some monarchist-influenced groups who want a unitary Ethiopia. They often emphasise a centralised state, a glorified past (imperial rule), and cultural homogenization, particularly under Amhara-Habesha hegemony.

Supporters of Federalism (Ethnic Federalists):

They support the current constitutional arrangement, which grants “Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples” the right to self-rule, identity, and secession (Article 39). They argue that it corrects historical subjugation and land dispossession.

 Applying The Communist Manifesto as a Tool

1. Class Struggle → Nation-Nationality Struggle

Marx’s class conflict (bourgeoisie vs. proletariat) can be reinterpreted in Ethiopia as:

> Old imperial elite (centralist, land-owning class) vs. oppressed nations and nationalities (historically marginalised ethnic groups)

The feudal regime and its modern heirs represent the dominant ruling class, while the federalists often speak for the historically exploited peripheries (Oromo, Sidama, Somali, etc.).

2. Superstructure and Ideology

Marx argued that the ruling class controls not only the economy but also culture, religion, and education.

In Ethiopia, centralists have historically imposed a unified identity (Amharan language, Orthodox Christianity, imperial history)—this reflects ideological domination, a key Marxist concern.

3. Economic Base and Exploitation

Feudal landownership in Ethiopia was built on "gabbar" (serf-like) systems, where peasants worked land owned by the imperial class.

Federalism, especially in Oromia and the South, is seen as a movement to reclaim land, language, and dignity, aligning with Marx’s call for the oppressed to regain control over their material and cultural life.

4. Revolution and Resistance

The rise of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in the 1990s, led by Marxist-inspired groups like the TPLF, reflected a partial implementation of revolutionary ideas, mainly through federalism.

However, critics argue that EPRDF institutionalised ethnic division for control, deviating from Marxist ideals of unity and class-based revolution.

 Key Takeaways for Ethiopian Analysis

Marxist Concept Ethiopian Analogy

Bourgeoisie vs. Proletariat: The old centralist elites vs. oppressed nations and ethnic groups

Superstructure: The Amhara-dominated national culture, language, and  religion

Class Consciousness Rise of ethnonational awareness among Oromo, Sidama, etc.

Revolution Struggles for federalism, self-determination, and land reform

Internationalism: Federalist resistance to state nationalism and homogenization

✍️ Conclusion

Karl Marx's Communist Manifesto offers a powerful lens through which to understand Ethiopia’s ideological divide. At its heart, the struggle between old feudal forces and federalist movements is not just political—it's about power, history, and who controls the nation's narrative. By applying Marx’s framework, we can see that Ethiopia's conflict is, in many ways, a modern form of class struggle, rooted in colonial-like domination, historical injustice, and the demand for equality and self-rule.

 

Abraham and Waaqeffannaa: A Reflection on Pre-Abrahamic Spirituality

 Abraham and Waaqeffannaa: A Reflection on Pre-Abrahamic Spirituality

Introduction

Abraham is regarded as the patriarch of the three major monotheistic religions: Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Collectively known as the "Abrahamic religions," these faiths trace their spiritual ancestry to Abraham, who is said to have lived over 4,000 years ago in Mesopotamia. However, long before the codification of these formal religions, human beings practised indigenous spiritual traditions grounded in their connection with nature, morality, and the unseen power that governs the universe. One such spiritual system is Waaqeffannaa, the traditional belief system of the Oromo people of East Africa. This essay explores the idea that Abraham may have held beliefs similar to Waaqeffannaa before the emergence of organised Abrahamic religions.

Waaqeffannaa: The Indigenous Monotheism of the Oromo

Waaqeffannaa is the indigenous monotheistic faith of the Oromo people, centred on the worship of Waaqa, the one supreme being. It emphasises the moral law known as Safuu, the balance between nature, society, and the divine. Unlike many other traditional belief systems, Waaqeffannaa upholds a clear sense of ethical order, reverence for elders, harmony with nature, and spiritual equality.

Waaqeffannaa is deeply rooted in the idea of oneness with Waaqa, not as a distant god, but as an ever-present being that permeates all life. There are no prophets, holy books, or institutionalised temples. Yet, the faith operates with profound moral teachings and rituals guided by the Qaalluu spiritual leaders and the Gadaa democratic socio-political system.

Abraham and Pre-Abrahamic Spirituality

Before the Abrahamic religions existed, Abraham lived in a society where polytheism was common. According to Abrahamic scripture, Abraham rejected his time's idol worship and sought belief in one universal Creator—a trait that aligns with the fundamental tenet of Waaqeffannaa. Like Waaqeffannaa, Abraham’s belief in one supreme deity preceded institutional religion, dogma, or scripture.

This suggests that Abraham’s original faith was more spiritual than religious, intuitive rather than doctrinal. He sought truth, harmony, and morality, core values also found in Waaqeffannaa. He worshipped God directly, without the intermediaries that later religious systems developed.

Parallels Between Abrahamic Belief and Waaqeffannaa

1. Monotheism: Abraham and the Oromo traditional religion uphold belief in one Supreme Being—God (Waaqa).

2. Moral Code: Abraham is described as righteous and obedient to God’s law; Waaqeffannaa upholds Safuu, a moral code that governs human behaviour.

3. Nature and Spirituality: Waaqeffannaa integrates the natural world into its spirituality. Abraham, too, is portrayed as someone who worshipped in nature and received revelations under the stars and sky.

4. Absence of Organised Religion: Abraham's faith was personal and spiritual before Judaism or Islam. Similarly, Waaqeffannaa operates without codified dogma.

Implications and Reflection

The possibility that Abraham’s original worldview resembled Indigenous faiths like Waaqeffannaa opens a powerful perspective on human spirituality. It suggests that long before organised religion, humanity’s search for the divine was rooted in nature, ethics, and a sense of cosmic order. It invites us to recognise that spiritual truth can exist outside religious institutions.

Moreover, it reaffirms the value of Indigenous African belief systems. For too long, African spirituality has been dismissed as "pagan" or primitive. Yet systems like Waaqeffannaa demonstrate a complex and intensely monotheistic understanding of the universe—one that might have been shared by patriarchs like Abraham himself.

Conclusion

Abraham’s journey toward one God may not have been unique but rather part of a larger human consciousness that sought unity, truth, and moral clarity. In this light, Waaqeffannaa is not just an Oromo religion; it is a global heritage—a living example of how humanity has always reached toward the divine. Before becoming a figurehead of Judaism, Christianity, or Islam, Abraham may have walked a spiritual path similar to that of the Oromo people—believing in Waaqa, living by Safuu, and honouring the sacred connection between creation and Creator.

The Basic Principles of Waaqeffannaa: An Indigenous Faith of the Oromo People

The Basic Principles of Waaqeffannaa: An Indigenous Faith of the Oromo People

Introduction

Waaqeffannaa is the indigenous spiritual belief system of the Oromo people of the Horn of Africa. Rooted in ancient tradition and oral knowledge, it reflects a worldview centred on harmony, ethical responsibility, respect for creation, and spiritual reverence toward Waaqaa—the supreme being. Unlike Abrahamic religions, Waaqeffannaa does not rely on centralised scripture or institutionalised hierarchy but is passed through generations by elders and spiritual leaders known as Qaalluus and Qaallittii.

The following essay outlines and explains the five core principles of Waaqeffannaa that define its cosmology, ethics, and social order.

1. Supremacy of Waaqaa (God)

At the heart of Waaqeffannaa is the belief in Waaqaa, the creator, sustainer, and moral judge of all existence. Waaqaa is omniscient, omnipresent, and omnipotent, but is not anthropomorphised. The Oromo see Waaqaa not only as a distant deity but as an active daily force guiding the natural and moral order.

Waaqaa is considered benevolent and just, never causing harm or evil. Because of this belief, followers of Waaqeffannaa are encouraged to live in alignment with Waaqaa’s will, which manifests through peace, balance, and ethical conduct. Worship of Waaqaa is expressed through prayers, rituals, naming ceremonies, and seasonal festivals, especially under sacred trees or near rivers, which are seen as pure channels of divine presence.

2. Interconnection of Human Beings, Nature, and Waaqaa

Waaqeffannaa teaches that humans, animals, plants, and natural forces are all part of a divinely connected whole. The Oromo worldview is ecological and relational: no strict boundary exists between the spiritual and natural realms. The earth (lafti), sky (samii), and all elements of creation are interconnected and animated by Waaqaa’s presence.

This principle cultivates deep environmental ethics among Waaqeffannaa followers. Cutting down sacred trees, polluting rivers, or abusing animals is seen not only as an ecological crime but also as a spiritual violation. Humans are considered caretakers—not owners—of nature, with moral duties to sustain and protect it for future generations.

3. Human Dignity and Rights

Waaqeffannaa affirms the inherent dignity of every individual as a creation of Waaqaa. Each person, regardless of gender, age, or status, is born with intrinsic value and is entitled to respect, freedom, and responsibility. Believing personal dignity extends to communal life, where fairness, truthfulness, and justice are paramount.

This spiritual view underpins Oromo concepts of social equality and democracy, especially as practised in the Gadaa system, the traditional Oromo political order. Leaders are expected to be wise, humble, and accountable, and no person is believed to have divine authority over others.

4. Safuu: Moral Law and Ethical Responsibility

Safuu is one of the most critical moral principles in Waaqeffannaa. It refers to the sacred order, moral code, and spiritual discipline that governs the relationship between humans, nature, and Waaqaa. To act against Safuu is to offend both moral law and divine harmony.

Examples of violating Safuu include:

Lying or deceiving

Exploiting others

Disrespecting elders

Destroying nature

Abusing one's role or position

Conversely, a person who upholds Safuu is seen as spiritually clean, socially trustworthy, and ethically upright. Teaching Safuu begins in childhood and is reinforced through oral storytelling, proverbs, and community enforcement. It's more than law—a lived spiritual ethic that organises personal behaviour and collective identity.

5. Nageenya: Peace, Harmony, and Balance

Nageenya—meaning peace—is not merely the absence of violence but a deep spiritual and social harmony state. Peace in Waaqeffannaa is holistic: it must exist between individuals, communities, nature, and Waaqaa. Disturbing this balance—through conflict, greed, dishonesty, or exploitation—destroys society and the spirit.

Conflict resolution in Oromo tradition emphasises Araara (reconciliation), Luba (age-based negotiation), and public apology and restoration rather than punishment. Maintaining Nageenya is a community duty, and elders play a central role in preserving social equilibrium.

Conclusion

Waaqeffannaa is a profound Indigenous spiritual system that integrates theology, ecology, ethics, and governance. Its principles—supremacy of Waaqaa, interconnectedness, dignity, Safuu, and Nageenya—create a foundation for a morally grounded and ecologically conscious way of life. In a world facing moral crisis, ecological destruction, and identity loss, Waaqeffannaa’s teachings offer a reminder that spiritual beliefs can be intensely local yet universally relevant.

As Oromos reclaim their heritage and identity, the revival and understanding of Waaqeffannaa will continue to play a critical role in restoring dignity, peace, and moral clarity in both personal and national spheres.

 

Grotius and Gadaa: Rethinking Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution Through Indigenous and International Legal Lenses.

Grotius and Gadaa: Rethinking Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution Through Indigenous and International Legal Lenses

By:  Habtamu Nini Abino, 

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Abstract

This article explores the conceptual tension and synergy between Hugo Grotius’s foundational principles of international law and the Oromo Gadaa system of indigenous governance in the context of Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution, which grants nations, nationalities, and peoples the right to self-determination up to secession. By analysing the philosophical underpinnings of both traditions, the article argues that a deeper synthesis of global legal norms and African indigenous values could inform a more coherent and just framework for federalism, unity, and peaceful coexistence in Ethiopia.

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1. Introduction

Ethiopia's constitutional framework, particularly Article 39, has long been the subject of intense debate. It provides a legal basis for ethnic self-determination, including the right to secede. While this clause was designed to resolve Ethiopia’s historic “nationalities question,” its application has contributed to political fragmentation and conflict.

This article situates Article 39 within two intellectual traditions:

• The natural law and sovereignty doctrine of Hugo Grotius, founder of modern international law.
• The indigenous democratic ethics of the Gadaa system—the traditional Oromo governance system.

Together, these frameworks offer rich, if underexplored, tools for rethinking federalism, justice, and legitimacy in Ethiopia.

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2. Hugo Grotius and the Legal Foundation of Sovereignty

A Dutch jurist, Hugo Grotius (1583–1645), articulated the first coherent theory of international law in his seminal work De Jure Belli ac Pacis (On the Law of War and Peace). He argued that:

• All nations and peoples are subject to natural law, a universal moral order grounded in human reason.
• Sovereign states are equal but morally obligated to uphold peace, justice, and freedom of navigation.
• War is only justified in defence of rights; otherwise, peace is the default human condition.

Though Grotius did not explicitly endorse secession, his framework accommodates the right to resist unjust authority, a precursor to modern doctrines of self-determination.

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3. The Gadaa System: Indigenous Ethics and Democratic Governance

The Gadaa system is a traditional socio-political order of the Oromo people, structured by age-sets and time-based leadership cycles. It is founded on core principles such as:

• Safuu – the moral code of proper conduct and spiritual balance.
• Nagaa – peace, harmony, and conflict resolution through dialogue.
• Araara – reconciliation over retaliation.
• Odaa – the sacred assembly where collective decisions are made.

Unlike the modern state system, Gadaa does not view sovereignty as state-centred, but rather people-centred, exercised by consensus through public deliberation.

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4. Article 39: Between Legal Right and Political Reality

Article 39 of the 1995 FDRE Constitution states:

“Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.”

This clause was introduced in a post-civil war context to recognise the rights of historically oppressed groups. However, its implications have been contentious:

• Positive: Recognition of ethnic identity, local governance, and cultural autonomy.
• Negative: Legalised fragmentation, inter-ethnic conflict, and state instability.

Modern Ethiopian politics often invokes Article 39 as a political weapon rather than a tool for justice and inclusion.

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5. Grotius, Gadaa, and the Ethics of Self-Determination

5.1 Grotius: Moral Limits on Sovereignty

Grotius maintained that even sovereign actors must respect universal justice. Therefore, secession or rebellion must serve justice, not ambition. Inspired by his ideas, modern international law recognises secession only in extreme cases like colonialism or genocide.

5.2 Gadaa: Moral Community over Political Exit

In contrast, the Gadaa system views collective unity as sacred. Decisions such as separation or rebellion must undergo public debate, ethical review (via Safuu), and consensus. The Gadaa principle of Nagaa would discourage any group from breaking away unless all peaceful remedies have been exhausted.

5.3 Shared Principles

Principle	Grotius	Gadaa
Justice must guide legal action	✔️	✔️
Peace preferred over conflict	✔️	✔️
Legitimacy comes from moral and public accountability	✔️	✔️
Unilateral actions are morally questionable	✔️	✔️

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6. Toward a Reinterpretation of Article 39

To reconcile the letter of Article 39 with both Grotius’s legal ethics and Gadaa’s indigenous wisdom, Ethiopia must:

1. Reframe self-determination as a process, not a threat.
   Emphasise democratic negotiation, not forced exit.

2. Require moral and communal justification for secession.
   Use mechanisms like public deliberation and independent review to legitimise claims.

3. Prioritise reconciliation and institutional reform.
   Create space for peaceful political dissent, equitable representation, and intergroup trust.

4. Recognise indigenous systems like Gadaa as legal resources.
   Integrate customary law in national governance, especially in conflict mediation.

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7. Conclusion

Grotius and Gadaa provide essential moral foundations for evaluating the legitimacy of self-determination and secession. While Ethiopia’s Article 39 gives nations legal rights, it lacks the ethical safeguards envisioned by Western and African legal traditions. To move forward, Ethiopia must root its federalism in law and justice, dialogue, and shared moral responsibility.

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References

• Grotius, H. (1625). De Jure Belli ac Pacis.
• FDRE Constitution, 1995.
• Asmerom Legesse. (2000). Oromo Democracy: An Indigenous African Political System.
• United Nations Charter, 1945.
• African Union Constitutive Act, Article 4(h).

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Ethiopia’s Politics of Survival: A Century Lost to Power Struggles?

Ethiopia’s Politics of Survival: A Century Lost to Power Struggles?

Introduction

With its ancient civilisation and diverse peoples, Ethiopia has long been considered a unique African state that has never been formally colonised and is rich in history. Yet beneath this legacy lies a deep-rooted political crisis. Ethiopia has been trapped in a cycle of authoritarianism, exclusionary politics, and survivalist governance for much of its modern history. The assertion that “Ethiopia’s politics is unscientific and a politics of survival, where the powerful take all” reflects a reality deeply embedded in its political culture. This essay argues that unless foundational changes are made, Ethiopia will unlikely witness true democracy and good governance—even in the next 100 years.

I. The Nature of Ethiopia’s Political Culture

Ethiopian politics has historically revolved around zero-sum competition. Power is viewed not as a public trust, but as a prize to be won and monopolised. The winner dominates, the loser is excluded and often persecuted. This pattern was present under imperial rule (Haile Selassie), socialist dictatorship (Mengistu Haile Mariam), and ethnic federalism (EPRDF and beyond).

The political culture lacks the scientific foundations of modern governance, meaning it lacks transparent institutions, predictable laws, accountability mechanisms, and evidence-based policymaking. Instead, personal loyalty, ethnic favouritism, and force determine who rules and how resources are allocated.

II. Politics of Survival: The Root of Authoritarianism

In Ethiopia, losing political power often means losing personal security, property, and life. This high-stakes environment creates a “politics of survival,” where rulers prioritise short-term control over long-term nation-building. They:

Suppress dissent through imprisonment, censorship, or military action.

Exploit ethnic divisions to weaken opposition and consolidate loyalty.

Manipulate elections not to gain legitimacy, but to maintain dominance.

Centralise power in the executive, ignoring judicial independence or parliamentary oversight.

This political logic is self-reinforcing. It leads to instability, rebellion, and regime collapse, which is followed by another group using the same tactics to cling to power.

III. Ethiopia’s Democratic Illusions

There have been moments of hope in Ethiopia’s political journey—transitional periods in 1991 (post-Derg) and 2018 (Abiy Ahmed’s rise). Each promised reform, democracy, and reconciliation. Yet both turned into renewed authoritarianism.

The reason lies in the absence of:

Independent institutions that can resist executive overreach.

Genuine federalism that respects the autonomy of nations and nationalities.

Civic education and democratic culture among elites and the public.

The rule of law protects minority rights and punishes abuse.

Without these foundations, elections become rituals, constitutions become manipulation tools, and democracy becomes a façade.

IV. The Next 100 Years: Why the Cycle May Persist

Assuming current trends continue, Ethiopia will unlikely achieve genuine democracy in the coming century. The reasons include:

1. Deep structural inequality – wealth, education, and power are concentrated among a few groups.

2. Militarised politics – the reliance on armed groups and security forces to resolve disputes.

3. Ethno-nationalist polarisation – making consensus-building nearly impossible.

4. Youth alienation – a rising generation that sees no future in peaceful politics.

5. External manipulation: Foreign powers support regimes that serve their interests, not democratic norms.

Even if one group attempts reform, the political culture often swallows them into the same patterns. The cycle will repeat without a radical rethinking of state structure and political philosophy.

V. Is There Hope? Conditions for Change

While pessimism is justified, political outcomes are not fixed. To break the cycle, Ethiopia would need:

A new social contract recognising the equality and self-determination of all nations and peoples within Ethiopia.

Independent institutions are protected from partisan capture.

Truth and reconciliation processes to address historical grievances.

A shift from survivalist politics to service-based leadership, emphasising competence over loyalty.

These changes, however, require leadership, sustained grassroots pressure, and international support aligned with democratic values.

Conclusion

Ethiopia’s political history is a cautionary tale of how the absence of scientific governance and democratic culture can trap a nation in endless cycles of conflict and repression. The current political model—winner-takes-all, power-at-any-cost—is unsustainable and corrosive. Without fundamental transformation, the next century may mirror the last: promises made, hopes dashed, and power seized in the name of survival. True democracy and good governance will remain a distant dream unless Ethiopia reinvents the very foundation of its statehood.

 

Resistance and Recolonisation: A Historical Analysis of Oromo-Abyssinian Relations

 Resistance and Recolonisation: A Historical Analysis of Oromo-Abyssinian Relations

Introduction

The relationship between the Oromo people and the Abyssinian (Habesha) state has long been marked by tension, resistance, and cycles of domination. Central to this historical dynamic is a deep-rooted mistrust based on the experiences of political conquest, cultural suppression, and economic exploitation. Many Oromo scholars and activists argue that the Habesha elite’s attempts at collaboration with the Oromo have often served as a strategic façade for the broader goal of reasserting control, what some call the "recolonisation" of Oromia. This essay explores this historical relationship, examining the roots of Oromo resistance, the motivations behind Abyssinian political collaboration, and the implications for Ethiopia's current political landscape.

I. Historical Background of Oromo-Abyssinian Relations

The Oromo are one of the largest ethnolinguistic groups in Africa. They have a distinct culture, language (Afaan Oromo), and traditional democratic system known as the Gadaa. Before the late 19th century, the Oromo lived in decentralised polities and maintained relative autonomy across their vast territories.

The expansion of the Abyssinian empire under Emperor Menelik II in the late 1800s brought with it a violent conquest of the south, including Oromia. Supported by European powers eager to see a Christian empire dominate the region, Menelik's campaign incorporated Oromo lands into the newly centralised Ethiopian state. This incorporation was not consensual but instead characterised by military subjugation, enslavement, and the destruction of indigenous institutions like the Gadaa system.

II. Cultural and Political Suppression

Succeeding Ethiopian regimes systematically attempted to assimilate or suppress Oromo identity in the post-conquest period. Afaan Oromo was banned from official use, including in schools and courts, and many Oromo were forced to adopt Amharic names, language, and culture. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church, a key ideological arm of the state, promoted Habesha norms while devaluing Oromo spirituality and traditions.

These policies laid the groundwork for a colonial relationship between the Abyssinian centre and the Oromo periphery. Oromos were often treated as second-class citizens, denied meaningful representation in state institutions, and their lands were redistributed to northern settlers or imperial loyalists under feudal arrangements.

III. Oromo Resistance Movements

Resistance has always been a defining element of Oromo history. From local rebellions during Menelik’s era to the more organised movements of the 20th century, such as the Macha-Tulama Association and later the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), Oromo people have consistently fought for self-determination, recognition, and justice.

The rise of pan-Oromo nationalism in the late 20th century reframed the struggle as one of decolonisation. For many Oromo intellectuals and activists, Ethiopia was seen not as a shared homeland but an empire built through conquest and sustained through repression.

IV. The Question of Collaboration: A Tool of Recolonisation?

Throughout history, the Abyssinian elite has frequently sought collaboration with certain Oromo elites or figures, offering them positions of power or symbolic inclusion. However, such gestures have rarely translated into structural change. Often, they fragment Oromo unity and undermine grassroots resistance movements.

For example, including Oromo figures in the Derg or EPRDF regimes was often superficial. While individuals may have held titles, power remained centralised in the hands of the northern ruling class. Attempts to co-opt Oromo politicians have frequently been accompanied by continued suppression of Oromo dissent and protests, most notably during the Qeerroo-led uprisings (2014–2018).

This pattern suggests that collaboration is not necessarily a move toward reconciliation, but a strategic mechanism for maintaining hegemony over Oromia. In this view, every political rapprochement is interpreted through a lens of suspicion, as a potential step toward "recolonisation" rather than genuine federalism or equality.

V. Contemporary Implications

The emergence of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—an Oromo by identity—initially raised hopes for a new era. However, his “Medemer” philosophy, which calls for unity and compromise, has been criticised by many Oromos as a rhetorical mask for recentralizing power and diluting Oromo aspirations.

The resurgence of military occupation in Oromia, the banning of Oromo organisations, and the imprisonment or killing of prominent Oromo leaders have all contributed to the belief that Habesha-led governments are still committed to a policy of domination. The lack of genuine power-sharing and the continued marginalisation of Afaan Oromo and the Gadaa system further strengthen this narrative.

Conclusion

The history of Oromo-Abyssinian relations is not merely one of ethnic diversity within a single nation-state—it is a history of conquest, suppression, and enduring resistance. While moments of cooperation have occurred, they have often been used to legitimise continued dominance. For many Oromos, collaboration with the Habesha elite is not a step toward peace or unity, but a strategy of recolonisation aimed at breaking Oromo self-determination. Until the Ethiopian state reckons honestly with this history and builds a truly inclusive federal system, the cycle of resistance and domination is likely to continue.

References:

Jalata, Asafa. Oromo Nationalism and the Ethiopian Discourse. The Red Sea Press, 1998.

Hassen, Mohammed. The Oromo and the Christian Kingdom of Ethiopia (1300–1700). James Currey, 2015.

Legesse, Asmarom. Gadaa: Three Approaches to the Study of African Society. The Red Sea Press, 2000.

Bulcha, Mekuria. “Contested Narratives and the Crisis of the Multinational Ethiopian State.” Northeast African Studies, Vol. 14(2), 2014.

 

Political Implications of President Trump's Letter to Jair Bolsonaro and the U.S.–Brazil Relationship

 Political Implications of President Trump's Letter to Jair Bolsonaro and the U.S.–Brazil Relationship

The official letter from President Donald J. Trump to former Brazilian President Jair Messias Bolsonaro reflects a significant moment in contemporary international relations. As the sitting President of the United States, Trump's direct support for Bolsonaro—currently facing legal prosecution in Brazil—signals an influential and controversial stance. This communication carries substantial diplomatic, ideological, and strategic implications for U.S.–Brazil relations and global democratic norms.

1. Official U.S. Endorsement of a Political Ally

Trump’s letter is both a personal statement and an official position of the U.S. government. By condemning the Brazilian legal process as "an unjust system" and urging that Bolsonaro’s trial “should end immediately,” Trump aligns U.S. foreign policy with a particular political figure rather than Brazil's institutional framework. This suggests that the United States under Trump prioritises loyalty to like-minded leaders over traditional diplomatic neutrality.

Such a move can be interpreted as an endorsement of Bolsonaro’s populist leadership and a rejection of Brazil's judicial accountability mechanisms. It sets a precedent that may erode the U.S.’s historic role as a supporter of democratic governance and judicial independence in Latin America.

2. Diplomatic Risk and Interference

By intervening in Brazil’s internal judicial process, Trump risks diplomatic backlash from the current Brazilian administration and civil society. In international diplomacy, interference in the legal affairs of another sovereign state—primarily through formal presidential communication—is considered highly irregular.

This could lead to a chilling effect on bilateral trade, security, and environmental cooperation, particularly if the Brazilian government views the letter as a political intrusion rather than constructive diplomacy.

3. Populist Solidarity Across Borders

Trump’s statement that Bolsonaro was a “strong leader who served your country well” and that both leaders are victims of attacks on free speech positions them as comrades in a global populist movement. This highlights a growing transnational network of populist leaders who claim to represent “the people” against established institutions such as courts, the media, and opposition parties.

The letter frames both Brazil and the U.S. as suffering under censorship and persecution, despite being governed by leaders who command substantial power. This populist narrative reinforces distrust in institutions and emboldens supporters of Bolsonaro who may reject the outcome of legal proceedings.

4. Policy Implications: Trade, Tariffs, and Governance

Trump’s mention of his “Tariff policy” as a means of showing disapproval indicates a blending of economic and ideological strategy. Economic pressure, typically reserved for national security or trade imbalance issues, is being leveraged to defend a political ally. This raises concerns that U.S. trade policy under Trump may become more unpredictable and politicised, undermining stable economic relations between the U.S. and Brazil.

Furthermore, this could incentivise foreign governments to align with U.S. political ideology to secure favourable trade terms, distorting diplomacy and commerce.

5. Erosion of Institutional Norms

By attacking Brazil’s censorship regime and calling for the end of political trials, Trump is projecting American domestic political battles onto the international stage. His message closely mirrors his own rhetoric regarding U.S. institutions and media. When exported through foreign policy, this erosion of institutional respect weakens global democratic solidarity.

Other authoritarian-leaning governments may feel emboldened to discredit their own judicial systems or target political opposition with less fear of U.S. condemnation, provided they maintain ideological alignment with Washington.

Conclusion

President Trump's letter to Jair Bolsonaro, as a formal communication from the White House, marks a bold and controversial moment in U.S. foreign relations. It reflects a shift from institutional diplomacy to leader-centric alliances based on shared populist values. While it may strengthen Trump's appeal among right-wing voters domestically and Bolsonaro supporters abroad, it undermines long-standing democratic principles, judicial independence, and the neutrality of U.S. foreign policy.

In the future, this approach may deepen polarisation in international politics, weaken the United States' credibility as a champion of democracy, and destabilise relations with countries led by centrist or left-leaning governments. The world will be watching closely to see whether this represents a new long-term trajectory in U.S. diplomacy or an isolated moment of ideological partisanship.

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THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

The Honorable

Jair Messias Bolsonaro

38th President of the Federative Republic of Brazil

Brasilia

Dear Mr. Bolsonaro:

I have seen the terrible treatment you are receiving at the hands of an unjust system turned against you. This trial should end immediately! I am not surprised to see you leading in the polls; you were a highly respected and strong leader who served your country well.

I share your commitment to listening to the voice of the people and I am very concerned about the attacks on free speech — both in Brazil and in the United States — coming out of the current government. I have strongly voiced my disapproval both publicly and through our Tariff policy.

It is my sincere hope that the Government of Brazil changes course, stops attacking political opponents, and ends their ridiculous censorship regime. I will be watching closely.

Sincerely,

[Signature]

DONALD J. TRUMP

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Is Abiy Ahmed’s “Medemer” a Philosophical Ideology or Political Rhetoric

Is Abiy Ahmed’s “Medemer” a Philosophical Ideology or Political Rhetoric?

Since his rise to power in 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made the term “Medemer” (መደመር) central to his political discourse and national reform agenda. Meaning “addition” or “synergy” in Amharic, Medemer is often presented as a vision for uniting Ethiopia’s diverse society and healing its historical wounds. But while its message of inclusion and cooperation resonates with many, Medemer's practical meaning and consistency remain in question. This essay examines whether Medemer constitutes a coherent philosophical ideology or whether it functions primarily as a flexible political slogan. Drawing on academic analyses, Abiy's own writings, and Ethiopia's political experience, this essay argues that Medemer is more of a rhetorical and pragmatic political tool than a fully formed ideology.

1. Origins and Conceptual Definition of Medemer

The concept of Medemer was formally introduced in Abiy Ahmed’s 2019 book Medemer (Amharic version), where he outlines it as a “new philosophy” for national reconciliation, unity, and development. According to Abiy, Medemer is "a call for collective agency, mutual respect, forgiveness, and shared destiny" (Abiy, 2019). It aims to replace the divisive ethnic politics institutionalised under Ethiopia’s 1995 Constitution with a culture of cooperation and mutual understanding.

The term broadly encapsulates:

Unity over division

Synergy over competition

Patriotism over parochialism

Forgiveness and reconciliation

This messaging aligns with African communalist philosophies like Ubuntu, emphasising interdependence and collective identity (Mbiti, 1969).

2. Medemer as a Political Philosophy

At face value, Medemer offers a normative framework for governance, built on ethical values and national solidarity. In his book and public speeches, Abiy situates Medemer within a spiritual and historical context, drawing on Abrahamic religions, Ethiopian history, and African wisdom. The core principles he articulates include:

Inclusivity: Bringing different ethnic and political groups to the table

Tolerance: Promoting civil discourse and non-violence

Developmental State Model: Advocating modernisation through collective action

However, critics point out that while Medemer claims philosophical depth, it lacks the theoretical rigour of traditional ideologies like liberalism, socialism, or federalism. As Yared Legesse (2021) argues, Medemer lacks a systematic framework or clearly defined policy program, and is better described as a personal political ethic than a national ideology.

3. Medemer in Practice: Contradictions and Criticisms

Despite its idealistic tone, the practical implementation of Medemer reveals profound contradictions. Abiy’s administration has faced criticism for:

Suppressing dissenting voices: Opposition leaders and journalists have been detained, contradicting the message of inclusiveness (Amnesty International, 2020).

Militarised conflict: The war in Tigray, which began in November 2020, led to mass atrocities and a humanitarian crisis, casting doubt on the government’s commitment to peace and synergy (HRW, 2021).

Centralisation of power: Critics argue that Medemer is being used to undermine federal autonomy, particularly for regions with strong ethnic identities such as Oromia and Tigray (Ayele, 2020).

These inconsistencies have led scholars like Lovise Aalen (2021) to argue that Medemer functions more as political rhetoric than a democratic ideology, designed to legitimise the centralisation of power under Abiy’s leadership.

4. Strategic Ambiguity or Coherent Philosophy?

A key feature of Medemer is its strategic ambiguity. Its broad and flexible language allows it to appeal to multiple audiences—urban elites, rural populations, reformists, and conservatives—without committing to a specific political model. As Merera Gudina (2020) notes, this vagueness makes Medemer a convenient "floating signifier" that is adaptable to shifting political conditions but is hard to implement with accountability.

Moreover, Medemer lacks the institutional backing or civic education to become a mass movement or governing doctrine. Unlike ideologies like Pan-Africanism or Marxism that were anchored in grassroots mobilisation and intellectual schools, Medemer is closely tied to one individual—Abiy Ahmed—and risks fading with his exit from power

5. Conclusion: A Vision, Not Yet an Ideology

In conclusion, Medemer is best understood as a visionary political narrative rather than a developed philosophical ideology. While it incorporates valuable principles such as unity, synergy, and reconciliation, it lacks a coherent theoretical foundation, institutional support, and consistent application. The contradictions between Abiy’s Medemer rhetoric and his administration's actions further weaken its ideological status.

For Medemer to evolve into a durable philosophy, it would require:

Democratic institutionalization

Open public discourse and critique

Consistent policy application

Ownership beyond one political leader

Until then, Medemer remains a political tool—aspirational in language but ambiguous in practice.

References

Abiy Ahmed. (2019). Medemer. Addis Ababa: Medemer Printing.

Mbiti, J. S. (1969). African Religions and Philosophy. London: Heinemann.

Ayele, Z. A. (2020). “Ethiopia's Transition: In Search of a Common Ground.” Addis Standard.

Legesse, Yared. (2021). “Medemer: Philosophy or Propaganda?” Ethiopian Journal of Political Science, Vol. 13(1).

Amnesty International. (2020). “Ethiopia: Authorities must end mass arbitrary arrests of Tigrayans.”

Human Rights Watch. (2021). Ethiopia: Tigray Conflict Causes Humanitarian Disaster.

Aalen, L. (2021). “Ethiopia’s Political Reform Under Abiy Ahmed: Ethnic Federalism and the Return to Authoritarianism.” Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.

Gudina, Merera. (2020). Federalism and the Challenges of Nation-Building in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa University.

 

Ethiopia’s Economic Reform Path under IMF Oversight: Progress and Challenges

Ethiopia’s Economic Reform Path under IMF Oversight: Progress and Challenges

Introduction

In July 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its third review under Ethiopia’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The review marks a pivotal moment in Ethiopia's macroeconomic reform program, as the country struggles with complex challenges: post-conflict reconstruction, fiscal constraints, dwindling donor aid, inflationary pressures, and unresolved sovereign debt issues. Despite the difficulties, the IMF acknowledged meaningful progress in economic stabilisation and reform implementation.

Positive Developments: Reform Progress and Growth Indicators

Ethiopia’s ECF arrangement—approved in July 2024 with a total value of US$3.4 billion—aims to restore macroeconomic stability, support inclusive growth, and strengthen public sector governance. According to the IMF, the third review confirmed that Ethiopia had met all quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks set for the evaluation period (IMF, 2025a). As a result, the IMF Executive Board approved an additional disbursement of US$262 million in early July 2025 (Reuters, 2025a).

The report emphasised Ethiopia’s success in tightening fiscal and monetary policy, phasing out fuel and electricity subsidies, and modernising its exchange rate system. Once a persistent economic threat, inflation has reportedly declined more rapidly than anticipated. Additionally, exports have grown significantly, and foreign exchange reserves have moderately improved, though they remain below optimal levels (IMF, 2025a).

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Reforms

One of the key reform areas highlighted in the report was Ethiopia’s shift toward a more market-driven exchange rate regime. The country has begun phasing out multiple exchange rates and easing restrictions on foreign exchange access. However, the parallel (black) market still reflects a significant premium—estimated at around 15%—indicating persistent currency misalignment and tight foreign exchange liquidity (Reuters, 2025b). The IMF provides technical assistance in developing a forecasting and policy analysis system to strengthen Ethiopia’s transition to an interest-rate-based monetary framework (IMF, 2025b).

Debt Sustainability and External Financing Gaps

Despite reform progress, Ethiopia’s debt crisis remains unresolved. The country defaulted on its external commercial debt in December 2023 and continues seeking restructuring agreements with official and private creditors. The IMF estimates that a US$3.5 billion reduction in external debt service obligations will be necessary over the next several years to restore debt sustainability (Addis Standard, 2025). Without this relief, Ethiopia’s development financing and poverty reduction goals remain in jeopardy.

Moreover, the IMF report underscores the decline in external aid and concessional financing. Donor support has fallen from 12% of GDP to under 4%, threatening humanitarian operations and budget support. This trend pressures the Ethiopian government to accelerate domestic revenue mobilisation and attract private investment (Reuters, 2025b).

Security and Structural Risks

Ethiopia’s macroeconomic trajectory is further complicated by security instability in several regions, sluggish state-owned enterprise (SOE) privatisation, and a fragile investment climate. The IMF warned that unless peace and the rule of law are consolidated, economic reforms alone will not unlock long-term growth or investor confidence (IMF, 2025a). Continued efforts are needed to strengthen institutional capacity, regulatory frameworks, and transparency in public finance management.

Conclusion

The July 2025 IMF report on Ethiopia presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. While the Ethiopian government has made significant progress in implementing fiscal and monetary reforms, the path to sustained economic recovery remains vulnerable to external financing gaps, security threats, and incomplete debt restructuring. The success of the IMF-supported program will depend not only on continued domestic commitment to reform but also on renewed international support and peacebuilding efforts. If managed prudently, Ethiopia has the potential to emerge from its current economic crisis with a stronger, more resilient foundation for inclusive development.

References

IMF (2025a). The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: 2025 Article IV Consultation and Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2025/07/15/The-Federal-Democratic-Republic-of-Ethiopia-2025-Article-IV-Consultation-Third-Review-Under-568611

IMF (2025b). Technical Assistance Report – Forecasting and Policy Analysis System. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/technical-assistance-reports/Issues/2025/07/16/The-Federal-Democratic-Republic-of-Ethiopia-Technical-Assistance-Report-Forecasting-Policy-568688

Reuters (2025a). IMF Executive Board Approves Ethiopia Review, Unlocking $262 Million. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/imf-executive-board-approves-ethiopia-review-unlocking-262-million-2025-07-02/

Reuters (2025b). IMF Warns Ethiopia That Reform Momentum Faces Risks Amid Waning Donor Support. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/imf-warns-ethiopia-that-reform-momentum-faces-risks-amid-waning-donor-support-2025-07-15/

Addis Standard (2025). IMF Cautions Ethiopia's Economic Reform Faces Headwinds Amid Falling Aid, Security Risks. Retrieved from https://addisstandard.com/imf-cautions-ethiopias-economic-reform-faces-headwinds-amid-falling-aid-security-risks/

 

CBS News on U.S. & Israel’s Resettlement Outreach

 CBS News on U.S. & Israel’s Resettlement Outreach

1. 🇸🇩🇸🇴 Approaching Sudan and Somalia

2. 🕊️ Attempted Outreach to Syria

3. Framed as Voluntary—but Controversial

4. No Country Agreed; Efforts Stalled

5. Geopolitical and Legal Ramifications

• Legal Dimensions: International legal experts have underscored that population transfer under duress violates the Fourth Geneva Convention, raising the spectre of war crime liability.

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🧾 Conclusion

CBS News reporting illuminates a previously opaque chapter in 2025 diplomacy: behind-the-scenes efforts by the U.S. and Israel to solicit third-country resettlement of Gazans. Despite ambition and high-level coordination, the idea collapsed due to unequivocal rejection by targeted states. Ultimately, what was sold publicly as a humanitarian “voluntary migration” proposal failed to secure any commitments and sparked intense legal, moral, and political pushback.

If you'd like, I can explore deeper why each country declined, how Palestinians themselves have responded, or how this episode fits into the broader geopolitics of the Gaza conflict.

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🇪🇹 Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: A Symbol of Sovereignty, Unity, and Self-Reliance Analytical Essay Based on the Embassy of Ethiopia in Israel’s Clarification Statement

🇪🇹 Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: A Symbol of Sovereignty, Unity, and Self-Reliance
An Analytical Essay Based on the Embassy of Ethiopia in Israel’s Clarification Statement

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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is more than a hydroelectric power project—it is a monument of national pride, resilience, and determination. In response to recent misleading remarks by  U.S. President Donald Trump, the Embassy of Ethiopia in Israel issued a clear and firm statement titled “Clarifying the Facts: GERD is an Ethiopian Achievement, Built by Ethiopians.” This public communication underscores the financial independence behind GERD's construction and its symbolic importance for Ethiopia's sovereignty and development vision.

1. The Misconception and the Clarification

According to the embassy’s statement, Donald Trump’s recent comments once again sparked confusion over the source of GERD's funding. The statement emphasised that this was the second time such incorrect claims were made, requiring a respectful but firm correction. The embassy asserts that the dam was never financed by the United States or any foreign donor. Instead, it was built exclusively through Ethiopian public contributions, diaspora remittances, and domestic resources, with no loans, grants, or external support.

This direct clarification aims to protect the narrative of Ethiopia’s development and counter any misinformation that could undermine the country’s autonomy or delegitimise people's efforts.

2. The Intentional Path to Sovereignty

The embassy further emphasised that Ethiopia’s decision to self-finance GERD was intentional. This was not merely a technical or financial decision, but a political and ideological stance—a reflection of Ethiopia’s aspiration for national sovereignty and self-reliant development. In an era when many large-scale African projects are heavily influenced by foreign capital, GERD stands as an exception and a symbol of Pan-African pride.

By consciously avoiding foreign debt or conditional aid, Ethiopia safeguarded the project from geopolitical pressure and maintained complete control over planning, implementation, and operation.

3. GERD as a Symbol of Unity and National Purpose

The message concludes by recognising GERD as a powerful example of unity. The dam is not just a state-driven project but a people-powered achievement. It brought together millions of Ethiopians from various walks of life, both inside and outside the country, united by a shared purpose. This unity transcended ethnic and political divisions, reaffirming that national goals can be met through collective sacrifice and vision.

The embassy's statement also references a July 2025 article from Horn Review titled “GERD: A Leap Towards Pan-Africanism,” reinforcing the dam’s broader symbolic role in Africa’s struggle for economic independence and self-determination.

4. Global Implications and Geopolitical Context

This public clarification also reflects the broader tensions in global diplomacy concerning Nile waters. Egypt and Sudan have repeatedly expressed concerns about GERD’s impact on downstream water flow, while Ethiopia has maintained that the dam is essential for energy security and poverty reduction. Trump’s earlier remarks in 2020 even suggested that Egypt “might blow up the dam,” comments that sparked outrage and global criticism.

Therefore, statements like the one issued by the Ethiopian embassy not only correct misinformation but also serve as diplomatic tools to reinforce national narratives and defend sovereign interests in the international arena.

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🔚 Conclusion

The Embassy of Ethiopia in Israel’s statement regarding GERD is more than a factual correction—it is a powerful declaration of Ethiopia’s agency, unity, and development philosophy. GERD is not merely a dam but a national project financed by Ethiopians' blood, sweat, and hope. It stands as a shining beacon for Africa, showing that even the most ambitious dreams can be realised without external dependency through unity, sincere dance, and clarity of purpose. In the statement, “GERD stands as a powerful example of what Ethiopians can achieve when united by purpose.”

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📚 Reference:
Embassy of Ethiopia in Israel (2025). Clarifying the Facts: GERD Is an Ethiopian Achievement, Built by Ethiopians. [Facebook Post]. Retrieved from: https://hornreview.org/2025/07/08/gerd-a-leap-towards-pan-africanism

The Power of Logical Thinking in Personal Development

🧠 The Power of Logical Thinking in Personal Development

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🔎 What Is Logical Thinking?

Logical thinking is a structured approach to reasoning that emphasises clarity, consistency, and objectivity. It uses rational, step-by-step thought patterns to analyse information, evaluate arguments, and make decisions based on facts rather than emotions. According to Paul and Elder (2006), logical thinking is a core aspect of critical thinking and plays a crucial role in intellectual discipline and fair-minded evaluation.

🧩 Why Is Logical Thinking Important?

Logical thinking is not just an academic exercise—it’s a life skill. In a rapidly changing and often confusing world, individuals who think logically are better prepared to handle challenges, make effective decisions, and communicate persuasively. Research by Halpern (2013) shows that logical reasoning enhances cognitive control, reduces bias, and supports ethical decision-making.

Some of its significant benefits include:

• Better decision-making: Logic reduces impulsive and irrational choices.
• Stronger communication and leadership: Clarity in thought translates into clarity in speech and writing.
• Reduced conflict: Objectivity allows individuals to navigate disagreements peacefully.
• Personal growth: Self-awareness improves as we reflect on our reasoning patterns.
• Fair and structured problem-solving: Logical processes avoid favouritism and guesswork.

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🔑 Key Traits of Logical Thinkers

1. Analytical Thinking

Logical thinkers dissect problems into manageable parts and look for patterns or causes. They consistently ask questions like “Why?”, “How?” and “What if?” to understand the root of issues (Lau & Chan, 2017).

2. Evidence-Based Decision-Making

Sound decisions require evidence. Logical thinkers avoid hearsay and verify information before acting on it. They challenge unfounded claims and ask for proof (Kahneman, 2011).

3. Objectivity and Fairness

They consider all perspectives, avoid personal bias, and are willing to change opinions when presented with new facts. This intellectual humility strengthens their credibility (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974).

4. Clear Communication

Organised thinkers are often strong communicators. They structure their ideas, avoid emotional appeals, and expose argument fallacies (Ennis, 1985).

5. Emotional Control

Logical thinkers manage stress and provocation well. They separate emotion from reasoning and maintain composure even in high-pressure situations (Goleman, 1995).

6. Flexibility and Learning

They accept criticism and see mistakes as opportunities to improve. Continuous learning is part of their thought process (Dweck, 2006).

7. Problem-Solving

From minor decisions to life-altering dilemmas, logical thinkers use step-by-step methods and analyse long-term consequences to reach solutions (Polya, 1957).

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✅ Logical Thinking Checklist

To promote self-awareness and improvement, individuals can use a checklist that assesses key areas of logical thinking: analysis, evidence use, fairness, clarity, emotional regulation, learning mindset, and structured problem-solving. This kind of self-evaluation aligns with metacognitive strategies discussed by Flavell (1979), encouraging active reflection on how one thinks.

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🧠 Scoring Your Skills

Using the checklist, individuals can categorise their current skill level:

• 18–21 “Always”: Excellent Logical Thinker
• 13–17: Good, with room to grow
• 8–12: Developing thinker
• Below 8: Needs improvement

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💡 Final Thought

Logical thinking does not mean dismissing emotion—it means not allowing emotions to cloud our judgment. It means developing the discipline to base our beliefs and actions on reason and evidence. We become more rational, empathetic, fair, and effective as we enhance this skill. Just like muscles, logical thinking strengthens with conscious effort and consistent practice.

As Carl Sagan famously stated, “It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.”

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📚 References

• Dweck, C. S. (2006). Mindset: The New Psychology of Success. Random House.
• Ennis, R. H. (1985). A Logical Basis for Measuring Critical Thinking Skills. Educational Leadership, 43(2), 44-48.
• Flavell, J. H. (1979). Metacognition and Cognitive Monitoring: A New Area of Cognitive–Developmental Inquiry. American Psychologist, 34(10), 906–911.
• Goleman, D. (1995). Emotional Intelligence. Bantam Books.
• Halpern, D. F. (2013). Thought and Knowledge: An Introduction to Critical Thinking. Psychology Press.
• Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
• Lau, J. Y. F., & Chan, J. (2017). Critical Thinking: An Introduction. Open Textbook Library.
• Paul, R., & Elder, L. (2006). The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools. Foundation for Critical Thinking.
• Polya, G. (1957). How to Solve It: A New Aspect of Mathematical Method. Princeton University Press.
• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.

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Implications of Egypt–China Abandoning SWIFT for CIPS.

This image and tweet report that Egypt and China’s central banks have agreed to abandon the SWIFT system and instead conduct bilateral trade using local currencies via China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). This move has significant geopolitical and economic implications, especially considering Egypt’s historical alignment with the United States and the dominance of the U.S. dollar (USD) in global trade.

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🧭 Implications of Egypt–China Abandoning SWIFT for CIPS

1. De-Dollarisation Gains Momentum

The most direct implication is a challenge to the dominance of the U.S. dollar in international transactions:

• SWIFT is a messaging system that facilitates global financial transfers, dominated by USD transactions.
• CIPS is Beijing’s alternative system to reduce dependence on SWIFT and the dollar.
• Egypt’s decision signals growing confidence in the yuan (CNY) and multipolar trade alternatives.

2. A Strategic Shift by Egypt

Egypt is traditionally a U.S. ally, receiving military aid and diplomatic backing. But this shift indicates:

• Cairo is diversifying its economic alliances, moving closer to China and potentially BRICS.
• This might be driven by frustration with U.S. financial restrictions or the desire for greater financial autonomy.

3. Risks of U.S. Sanctions or Retaliation

Former U.S. President Donald Trump and others have warned of sanctions or economic consequences for countries that bypass the dollar. Possible outcomes:

• U.S. could impose secondary sanctions on entities using CIPS, similar to what it has done to Iran or Russia.
• Foreign aid, loans, or trade benefits to Egypt might be reduced.
• Egypt might face political pressure from Washington and its allies.

4. Strengthening of China’s Global Financial Architecture

China’s success in convincing nations to adopt CIPS and local currency trade strengthens its push to:

• Internationalise the yuan.
• Undermine U.S.-led financial dominance.
• Promote an alternative world order centred around China and BRICS+ partners.

5. Influence on Other Countries

Egypt’s shift might inspire other African, Arab, or Global South nations to consider ditching SWIFT or reducing reliance on the USD. This would:

• Accelerate the fragmentation of global finance into Western (USD/SWIFT) vs. Eastern (CNY/CIPS) blocs.
• Pressure multilateral financial institutions (IMF, World Bank) to adjust policies.

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🧨 Strategic Risks & Benefits for Egypt

✅ Pros

• Less dependence on U.S. financial systems and sanctions.
• Better trade terms with China (e.g., Belt and Road projects, investment).
• More control over foreign reserves and monetary policy.

❌ Cons

• Potential loss of U.S. support, aid, or trade advantages.
• Increased scrutiny from Western financial systems.
• Risk of economic volatility during the transition.

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🔚 Conclusion

Egypt’s decision to abandon SWIFT in favour of CIPS with China is a bold step toward de-dollarisation, signalling a shift in global financial alignments. While this may bring economic flexibility and stronger ties with China, it also risks alienating traditional Western allies, especially if U.S. policymakers like Trump return to power and enforce punitive measures.

This move illustrates the growing cracks in U.S. dollar hegemony and marks another step in the rise of a multipolar global financial system.

Trump’s Remarks on Ethiopia’s Dam and Their Implications for Regional Stability and International Diplomacy

Trump’s Remarks on Ethiopia’s Dam and Their Implications for Regional Stability and International Diplomacy

 U.S. President Donald Trump recently made renewed remarks regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a massive hydroelectric project on the Blue Nile River, during a political event in July 2025. Trump’s statements re-energised international attention on the dam dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. He emphasised that Egypt has a legitimate concern regarding the Nile waters and declared that a resolution would come “very quickly.” His remarks, though brief, carry significant diplomatic weight and pose notable implications for regional politics, international diplomacy, and Ethiopia’s sovereignty.

Background on the GERD Dispute

The GERD, located in Ethiopia near the border with Sudan, is Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam. Ethiopia views the dam as a cornerstone of its national development and energy strategy. However, downstream countries—particularly Egypt—fear that the dam will reduce the flow of the Nile River, which Egypt relies on for more than 90% of its freshwater supply.

Over the past decade, negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have been fraught with tension, mistrust, and intermittent diplomatic efforts. With limited long-term success, the African Union, the United States, and other international actors have attempted to mediate.

Trump’s Position and Its Context

Trump’s recent comments echo his earlier stance during his presidency, when he controversially suggested that Egypt might "blow up the dam" if an agreement was not reached. While less provocative, his current statements align with Egypt’s position, indicating support for Cairo’s water rights.

By stating, “If I’m Egypt, I want to have water in the Nile … we think we are going to have that solved very quickly,” Trump reinforced the narrative that Egypt’s concerns are primary and that the United States may pressure Ethiopia into compliance.

Implications

1. Diplomatic Pressure on Ethiopia: Trump's remarks may signal increased international diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia, particularly from the West and Arab Gulf countries allied with Egypt. If the U.S. or other influential states back Egypt’s demands, Ethiopia may find itself isolated or coerced into accepting terms that limit its use of the dam.

2. Undermining African Solutions: The African Union has emphasised “African solutions to African problems.” Ethiopia has strongly supported AU-led mediation. Trump’s intervention risks undermining these efforts by reintroducing Western dominance in a highly sensitive regional issue.

3. Regional Instability: While Trump suggested a peaceful resolution, his past rhetoric and favouritism toward Egypt could reignite regional hostilities. Any perception that the U.S. is taking sides may embolden Egypt or Sudan to adopt a more aggressive diplomatic or military posture.

4. National Sovereignty and Ethiopian Politics: The GERD is a development project and a symbol of national pride and sovereignty for Ethiopia. Foreign attempts to influence how it manages the dam may provoke nationalist backlash, complicating domestic politics and Ethiopia’s relations with neighbouring states.

5. U.S. Role in the Nile Basin: Trump's remarks raise questions about the future role of the U.S. in Nile Basin diplomacy. Will the U.S. be a neutral mediator or push a deal favourable to Egypt? The answer could shape the dam negotiations and broader U.S.-Africa relations.

Conclusion

Though brief, Donald Trump's remarks on Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam carry significant geopolitical weight. They reflect ongoing international interest in the Nile water dispute and risk reigniting tensions if perceived as partial or coercive. For the region to move forward, balanced diplomacy grounded in respect for all nations’ rights is essential. Without undue external interference, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan must be allowed to reach an equitable agreement that considers developmental needs, historical water usage, and the right to self-determination. Otherwise, the dam will remain an engineering marvel and a potential flashpoint for future conflict.

A Critical Reflection on Ethiopia’s Political Culture and the Crisis of Moral Leadership

 A Critical Reflection on Ethiopia’s Political Culture and the Crisis of Moral Leadership

Ethiopia, a nation with millennia of history and a cradle of ancient civilisations, has faced persistent political turbulence, civil conflict, and social fragmentation. While its cultural and religious richness are sources of national pride, Ethiopia's modern political trajectory reveals deeply rooted dysfunctions that warrant critical reflection. The assertion that "Ethiopians are ignorant and morally bankrupt, glorify violence, and fail to embrace dialogue" is a harsh judgment. Still, it stems from observable patterns in the nation’s political life and public consciousness. This essay explores the roots of this disillusionment, examining the role of historical legacies, cultural norms, and leadership failures in perpetuating violence and undermining moral and democratic values in Ethiopian society.

1. The Normalisation of Violence in Politics

Ethiopia’s political history is punctuated by repeated cycles of violence as a means of attaining or retaining power. From imperial conquests to Marxist purges, and from ethnic federalism to recent civil wars, the gun has too often been chosen over the ballot or the dialogue table. Political dissent is regularly criminalised, and opposition groups are either violently suppressed or militarised themselves. The preference for force over reason has not only stifled democratic development but also perpetuated a culture where might is perceived as right.

In many cases, those who gain power through violent means are later hailed as “liberators” or “heroes,” regardless of the human cost. This glorification of militarism, deeply entrenched in the national psyche, discourages peaceful negotiation and rewards brutality over empathy and justice.

2. Moral Hypocrisy and Religious Disconnect

In Ethiopia, religion is prominently practised—Orthodox Christianity, Islam, and various Protestant denominations shape daily life. Yet, despite this public religiosity, the actions of many political and social actors suggest a disturbing disconnect between professed faith and ethical behaviour. Religious leaders are often politicised or silent in the face of injustice. In many cases, violence is committed by individuals who simultaneously claim religious devotion, revealing a hollow or instrumental use of faith.

The gap between spiritual belief and social practice reflects a broader moral crisis. Corruption, nepotism, ethnic hatred, and a thirst for power frequently override calls for compassion, justice, and reconciliation. The society’s collective conscience appears numbed, and truth-telling is often replaced by propaganda, historical revisionism, and ethnic scapegoating.

3. Glorification of Criminals and Ethnic Chauvinism

Another troubling element is the public's frequent veneration of political figures who have committed or enabled atrocities. Rather than holding leaders accountable, communities often protect them based on ethnic loyalty or political affiliation. War criminals, corrupt elites, and divisive ideologues are celebrated, not condemned. This pattern undermines the rule of law, erodes public trust in institutions, and encourages a cynical view of politics as a zero-sum game.

Ethnic nationalism has replaced civic patriotism, making dialogue nearly impossible in some circles. Compromise is equated with betrayal, and unity is interpreted as domination. This ethno-political fragmentation has led to the breakdown of social cohesion and the proliferation of armed groups claiming to speak for their “people” through violence rather than consensus-building.

4. The Role of Ignorance and Educational Failures

While the word “ignorant” can be inflammatory, it points to a fundamental issue: the systematic failure of Ethiopia’s educational and political institutions to cultivate critical thinking, civic responsibility, and historical awareness. Misinformation, propaganda, and conspiracy theories dominate political discourse, especially on social media. Many citizens have limited access to balanced knowledge or independent analysis, and this intellectual vacuum is exploited by populists and warmongers alike.

Civic education is virtually non-existent. Young Ethiopians are raised in environments where history is told through ethnic lenses, where enemies are constructed early, and where political violence is justified as self-defence. This ignorance—whether willful or imposed—feeds the cycles of division and conflict.

5. The Need for a Cultural and Moral Awakening

Despite this grim diagnosis, Ethiopia is not without hope. There are voices—brave journalists, principled elders, progressive youth, and ethical religious leaders—who call for reconciliation, moral clarity, and non-violent transformation. The country’s salvation lies in rejecting the old paradigm of power through violence and embracing inclusive dialogue, historical accountability, and civic values.

A new Ethiopian social contract must be built not on revenge or ethnic superiority, but on shared values, mutual respect, and the courage to confront the past honestly. Only then can the nation emerge from its moral confusion and forge a future worthy of its rich heritage and resilient people.

Conclusion

The assertion that Ethiopians are ignorant and morally bankrupt is an expression of deep frustration with a system and culture that have repeatedly failed their people. It is a call to break the chains of violence, ethnic hatred, and moral hypocrisy. While the country has profound challenges, it also possesses immense potential—if it invests in truth, justice, and peace instead of power through bloodshed. The path forward requires institutional reform and a collective awakening of conscience.

The Red Sea Arena and the Coming Geopolitical Realignment in the Horn of Africa

 

The Red Sea Arena and the Coming Geopolitical Realignment in the Horn of Africa

As the world watches the increasingly apocalyptic scenes of missile exchanges between Israel and Iran, it is essential to look beyond the direct battlefield and consider the broader geopolitical chessboard. One critical but often underreported theatre in this evolving conflict is the Red Sea region, where the repercussions of the Middle East's shifting power dynamics echo into the Horn of Africa. The recent intensification of Houthi attacks, U.S. naval deployments, and the growing strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait all point to one conclusion: the next front of the Israel-Iran conflict will be maritime—and it will draw in Eritrea, Ethiopia, and the wider Horn of Africa.

I. The Houthis and the Red Sea: A Strategic Headache for the West

The Houthi movement in Yemen, backed by Iran, has become a major disruptive force in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, launching missile and drone attacks on commercial and military vessels. As the map shows, Iranian-backed militias are active across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, forming a strategic arc of influence that Iran can use to pressure the U.S. and its allies, particularly Israel. The Houthis' ability to threaten global shipping routes places them at the centre of international concern.

Yet despite Israel's sophisticated military capabilities and its ongoing conflict with Iran, it has not neutralised the Houthi threat, choosing instead to rely on U.S. naval power to secure Red Sea shipping lanes. This suggests that Israel is making calculated decisions, perhaps preserving political capital for a larger regional strategy.

II. Eritrea and Assab: The Geostrategic Prize

At the heart of that strategy may lie Eritrea, particularly the Assab port, located at a critical chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Once an Ethiopian port, Assab has been under Eritrean control since independence. Ethiopia has been landlocked for years, relying on Djibouti for nearly all of its maritime trade.

A growing theory in regional circles posits that Israel (and the West) are supporting a future regime change in Eritrea—a country long seen as isolated and repressive under President Isaias Afwerki. Eritrea has historically maintained ambiguous relations with both Israel and Iran, but recently allowed the UAE and Saudi military use of its ports to counter the Houthis. If a new regime were installed, more aligned with U.S./Israeli interests, it could tilt the regional balance, provide a permanent friendly base on the Red Sea, and pave the way for Ethiopia to regain access to Assab.

This would reshape Ethiopian geopolitics and undercut Iran's maritime influence.

III. The Horn of Africa as a Proxy Arena

The Horn of Africa is no longer a peripheral space in global politics. With U.S. bases in Djibouti, military cooperation with Ethiopia, naval deployment in the Gulf of Aden, and the threat of Houthi attacks looming, this region has emerged as a strategic buffer zone between Middle Eastern conflicts and African stability.

Should a regime change occur in Eritrea, it will likely trigger a geopolitical domino effect:

Sudan, already in crisis, could see further destabilisation.

Somalia and Somaliland, already contested by Gulf rivals, could be drawn deeper into the Red Sea alliance race.

China has a naval base in Djibouti, and Russia, seeking greater African influence, will not sit by quietly.

IV. Ethiopia’s Strategic Calculus

Now diplomatically recovering from its civil war and engaging cautiously with Israel and the West, Ethiopia could be offered a major geopolitical incentive—access to Assab—in exchange for aligning more clearly with anti-Iranian interests. This would give Ethiopia a strategic outlet to the sea and the political leverage it needs to rise as a Red Sea power.

But this move comes with risk: it would draw Ethiopia into a larger proxy war, potentially exposing it to terrorist attacks, destabilising retaliation from neighbouring states, or even Iranian hybrid warfare via allied groups in the region.

Conclusion: A Storm Brewing Over the Red Sea

The Israel-Iran conflict is no longer confined to missiles and proxies in Lebanon and Gaza. The next battleground is maritime—the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the ports of Eritrea and Yemen. As the U.S. and its allies—including Israel—seek to contain Iran’s regional influence, the Horn of Africa is emerging as a critical pivot zone. Regime change in Eritrea, naval realignment in the Red Sea, and Ethiopia’s potential return to the coast all point to a messy, high-stakes geopolitical transformation.

The Horn of Africa is no longer a spectator in Middle Eastern politics. It is becoming one of the central stages in a confrontation that will shape the future of the Red Sea and the global balance of power.