Diplomatic and Economic Analysis: South Africa vs. Ethiopia in France (May 2025)

Diplomatic and Economic Analysis: South Africa vs. Ethiopia in France (May 2025)

Context Overview

On Wednesday, 22 May 2025, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and South African Deputy President Paul Mashatile were in France for separate diplomatic engagements with President Emmanuel Macron. These meetings reflect both nations’ efforts to deepen economic and diplomatic cooperation with one of Europe’s most influential powers.

Economic Advantage: South Africa vs. Ethiopia

1. South Africa’s Diplomatic and Economic Position

Strong Business Ties: Over 400 French companies currently operate in South Africa, employing over 65,000 South Africans. This signals a deep and structured economic relationship built over time.

Institutionalised Economic Forums: The SA–France Investment Conference has succeeded and is now set to become a biennial institutional mechanism—showcasing South Africa as a reliable, long-term partner.

Macron’s Upcoming Visit: President Macron's planned visit to South Africa for the G20 Summit underscores the country’s importance in global diplomacy and Africa’s economic agenda.

Mature Diplomatic Channel: The conversation involved high-level multilateral cooperation, showing that France and South Africa view each other as partners in bilateral terms and broader international frameworks.

2. Ethiopia’s Diplomatic and Economic Engagement

Warm Political Ties: Prime Minister Abiy emphasised the continuity and positivity of discussions with Macron, reflecting a growing diplomatic warmth.

Focus on Trade Enhancement: Abiy clearly stated that enhancing commercial ties is a central priority, which shows intent to deepen economic relations. However, it suggests that the existing economic linkage may not yet match South Africa’s depth.

Follow-Up from Addis Ababa Talks: The visit continues discussions held in December 2024, indicating consistent engagement. However, no clear institutional outcome or investment figure has been shared from this engagement.

Strategic Aspirations: Ethiopia is clearly positioning itself for expanded investment and commercial engagement, but this remains aspirational compared to South Africa’s already active portfolio of French investment.

Comparative Summary

Aspect South Africa, Ethiopia

French companies on the ground 400+ companies Not specified

Jobs linked to French investment 65,000+ Not specified

Institutional mechanisms SA–France Investment Conference Not established yet

Economic relationship status Established and mature Growing and aspirational

Diplomatic depth Bilateral and multilateral (G20, etc.) Strong but more bilateral for now

Macron's travel plans Visiting South Africa No reciprocal visit announced

Conclusion

South Africa has a greater diplomatic and economic advantage in its relationship with France than Ethiopia. The presence of hundreds of French companies, high employment impact, institutional investment frameworks, and Macron’s upcoming visit all point to a deeper and more structured relationship.

However, Ethiopia is making strong diplomatic strides, and Prime Minister Abiy’s emphasis on trade and continuity in discussions indicates a strategic move to elevate Ethiopia’s economic profile with France. If Ethiopia manages to institutionalise economic dialogues and attract concrete investments, it could close the gap shortly.

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