Ethiopian Politics and the Cycle of Repetition: A Path Toward Reform or Ruin?

Ethiopian Politics and the Cycle of Repetition: A Path Toward Reform or Ruin?

The often-quoted adage, "doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is insanity," resonates with painful clarity in Ethiopian politics. From imperial rule to Marxist revolution, from ethnic federalism to reformist dreams turned sour, the nation's political history is marked by recurring cycles of authoritarianism, ethnic strife, and centralised control masquerading as national unity. Despite changes in leadership, ideology, and external allies, the structural and psychological governance patterns remain unchanged. Ethiopia’s political elite, in many ways, have recycled old tactics in new uniforms—hoping for peace, prosperity, and unity, but instead finding division, conflict, and stagnation.

The Legacy of Authoritarianism

Ethiopia’s political traditions have long leaned toward centralised authority. Under Emperor Haile Selassie, modernisation was pursued through an imperial lens, with dissent either co-opted or crushed. His overthrow in 1974 by the Derg regime brought promises of equality and socialism, yet delivered even more brutal repression through the infamous Red Terror. Both regimes' power was personalised, and dissent was treated as treason. These regimes may have had different ideological labels—monarchist and Marxist—but the methods of rule remained consistent: silence opposition, control narratives, and enforce unity through fear.

Ethnic Federalism: A Double-Edged Sword

The rise of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in 1991, led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), introduced ethnic federalism—a bold attempt to institutionalise diversity by granting regions autonomy along ethnic lines. For some, it was a necessary correction to imperialism; for others, it was the beginning of formalising ethnic division. Initially hailed as progressive, the system gradually became a mechanism for ethnic patronage and suppression. Power remained tightly controlled, dissent was often ethnically framed, and regionalism became both a right and a threat. Again, the script was familiar: new ideas implemented with old habits, centralised control and fear-based governance.

Reform or Repeat?

The rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018 was seen as a potential turning point. Abiy spoke of unity, medemer (synergy), and democratic reform. Political prisoners were released, exiled groups welcomed back, and peace was made with Eritrea. Yet this period of euphoria was short-lived. By 2020, Ethiopia was embroiled in a devastating civil war, political pluralism shrank, and old security tactics resurfaced under new justifications. What began as reform regressed into repression, with a troubling return to war, ethnic profiling, and internet blackouts.

Breaking the Cycle

Ethiopia's tragedy is not just in the repetition of history, but in the refusal to confront its deeper causes. Power in Ethiopia has often been seen as zero-sum, with little incentive for compromise. Ethnic identity, instead of being a source of shared culture, has been politicised and militarised. Governance is reactive rather than proactive, crisis-driven rather than vision-driven. Until Ethiopian leaders and society break from this pattern, the quote rings true: expecting unity while sowing division, peace while stoking fear, and democracy without institutions is not just naïve—it is, in fact, a form of political insanity.

A Way Forward

Breaking free from this cycle requires more than new faces or slogans. It demands structural change, historical reckoning, and a cultural shift toward compromise and accountability. Federalism must evolve beyond ethnic lines; democratic institutions must be strengthened and symbolised; and political discourse must prioritise national healing over factional advantage. Ethiopia’s youth, intellectuals, and civil society must drive this transformation, learning from the past not to replicate it but to transcend it.

Conclusion

Ethiopia stands at a crossroads once again, and the stakes are high. The past offers lessons, not blueprints. If leaders and citizens continue to repeat familiar mistakes, expecting peace and prosperity to arise from authoritarian methods and ethnic division, they will fulfil Einstein’s definition of insanity. But if they choose a new phone grounded in inclusion, reform, and accountability, the cycle can finally be broken. History need not repeat itself if its warnings are heeded.