The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea: A Potential New Front in the Israel-Iran Conflict
The Israel-Iran war has long been perceived as a Middle Eastern confrontation confined to airstrikes, missile attacks, cyber warfare, and proxy engagements in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. However, as the conflict intensifies, emerging scenarios suggest that the next phase of this geopolitical struggle may pivot towards the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. The region’s strategic waterways, critical ports, and fragile political landscapes could make it the next major theatre in this widening confrontation. Eritrea, Yemen, Djibouti, and the disputed Assab port could all become key battlegrounds in the silent chess game between Israel, Iran, and their global allies.
The Red Sea Arena: Israel’s Unfinished Battle
While Israel has achieved tactical successes against Iran’s direct and proxy threats, it has yet to neutralise the Houthi militia in Yemen. The Houthis, heavily supported by Iran, have grown bolder in their operations, frequently launching attacks on commercial vessels and U.S.-aligned assets in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. These attacks not only threaten Israel’s maritime interests but also undermine global trade routes connecting Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal.
Israel’s security doctrine cannot ignore the growing threat on this southern flank. As the Houthis persist in targeting Red Sea navigation, the Israel-Iran confrontation is likely to extend beyond the Levant into the waters surrounding Yemen, Eritrea, and Djibouti. The map of U.S. military deployments and Houthi-controlled areas illustrates the gravity of the situation. The Red Sea is rapidly becoming an unavoidable battleground.
Eritrea’s Geopolitical Crossroads: The Fate of Assab
Eritrea’s strategic location and control over the Assab port are becoming increasingly relevant. Historically, Ethiopia has sought access to the sea, particularly through Assab, following the loss of its coastline after Eritrea’s independence in the 1990s. The possibility of regime change in Eritrea—implied in the emerging geopolitical discourse—suggests that external powers, potentially including Israel, may be manoeuvring to realign Eritrea’s political landscape in a way that could shift control of this critical port.
If Ethiopia collaborates with Israel—overtly or covertly—it could find an opportunity to regain access to Assab, a prize that would dramatically alter Ethiopia’s geopolitical and economic position. For Israel, securing Assab through allied Ethiopian control would serve as a strategic counterbalance to Houthi and Iranian influence across the Red Sea.
A Geopolitical Domino Effect
The scenario does not stop with Eritrea and Ethiopia. Djibouti, which already hosts multiple foreign military bases (including U.S., French, and Chinese), would inevitably be drawn deeper into this conflict. Djibouti’s control over the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait—a chokepoint for global oil and shipping—makes it an indispensable player.
Sudan, Somalia, and other fragile regional states could be pressured into taking sides as the Red Sea arena becomes more militarised. Russia, China, the United States, and Gulf nations would likely intensify their involvement, each seeking to secure their maritime, energy, and strategic interests.
The Risk of Proxy Escalation
A war in the Red Sea region would not mirror conventional state-to-state battles. It would more likely manifest through proxy forces, asymmetric naval warfare, and hybrid tactics including cyberattacks, maritime blockades, and economic sabotage. Israel could engage through naval operations and covert alliances with Horn of Africa states. At the same time, Iran would continue leveraging the Houthis and other local militias to destabilise shipping routes and challenge Israeli-aligned movements.
The resulting proxy entanglements would heighten regional instability, risking the collapse of already fragile governments and triggering humanitarian crises through disrupted trade and potential blockades of food and fuel supplies.
Ethiopia’s Strategic Calculations
Ethiopia's temptation to regain Assab would be immense, particularly if it were promised logistical, intelligence, or military support from Israel and its Western allies. However, such a move would carry significant risks, potentially sparking conflict with Eritrea and inviting opposition from Iran, the Houthis, and other regional actors aligned with anti-Israel sentiments.
Ethiopia’s decision would likely hinge on a complex cost-benefit analysis: the economic and geopolitical gain of sea access versus the danger of becoming a frontline player in the Israel-Iran war, with all the military and diplomatic consequences that would entail.
Conclusion: A Messy Realignment Ahead
The Israel-Iran war is no longer confined to missile exchanges and proxy fights in the Levant. The Red Sea and the Horn of Africa are likely theatres of confrontation, where naval supremacy, control of strategic ports, and influence over fragile states will determine the balance of power.
If the scenario unfolds as anticipated, regime change in Eritrea, Ethiopian realignment, intensified proxy wars, and expanded U.S. and Israeli naval operations in the Red Sea will define a dangerously complex new phase in the Middle East conflict. Long on the periphery of great power struggles, the Horn of Africa may soon find itself at the centre of a global geopolitical realignment that promises to be as messy as it is consequential.
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