The Legacy of Betrayal: Isaias Afwerki, TPLF, and the Seeds of Revenge in Ethiopia

 The Legacy of Betrayal: Isaias Afwerki, TPLF, and the Seeds of Revenge in Ethiopia

In the turbulent political history of the Horn of Africa, few alliances have had as devastating and far-reaching consequences as the one forged between Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Though they portrayed themselves as archenemies of the Derg regime, history has revealed that their alliance was strategic, calculated, and ultimately destructive—not just to the regime they overthrew, but to the lives of countless civilians, military officials, and the national fabric of Ethiopia itself. The trauma inflicted by their victory in 1991 continues to shape contemporary Ethiopian politics and may soon fuel a dangerous war of revenge.

The Collapse of the Derg and the Rise of Bitterness

The Derg regime, despite its brutal governance, had entrenched military and administrative structures, and thousands of Ethiopians, particularly in the military and civil services, had dedicated their lives to the state. When the TPLF and Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF/Shabia) forces marched into Addis Ababa in 1991, these officials were not simply defeated; they were humiliated, imprisoned, executed, and exiled. For many, their careers, reputations, and dreams were destroyed overnight. Their families were left to suffer quietly under the new regime, often living in fear or economic desperation.

Though the TPLF and Shabia presented themselves as liberators from tyranny, their post-victory actions were vindictive and exclusionary. Rather than seeking reconciliation or reform, they purged the state of former Derg affiliates and replaced them with cadres loyal to their ethnic or ideological lines. Many Derg officials today live with the scars of betrayal, not just from a political defeat but from the dismantling of their identity and social status.

A Generation Raised in Silence and Memory

The children of these former officials have grown up with the stories of injustice, imprisonment, and displacement. They heard the cries of their parents, saw the bitterness in their eyes, and inherited a sense of unresolved history. This generation, now educated and politically aware, carries the pain of the past like an unburied corpse. This historical grievance surfaced clearly in the recent Tigray War: many former Derg officials and their families vocally supported the war, not simply out of nationalism, but from a deep-rooted desire for revenge. It was, for them, a historic moment to settle scores with the TPLF, the architects of their downfall.

Oromo Memory and the OLF Betrayal

The Oromo, too, have their own bitter memories of 1991. The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), once a partner in the transitional period, was sidelined, betrayed, and violently suppressed by the TPLF-led government. Oromo forces were disarmed, leaders were imprisoned or killed, and a promising opportunity for Oromo political expression was shut down. This betrayal, committed with silent consent from the TPLF and EPLF, is etched in Oromo collective memory. The dream of self-determination and equality was again denied, this time not by Amhara elites or the Derg, but by a new coalition that claimed to be revolutionary.

Thus, in Ethiopia, memory is not just historical but political. It fuels present-day decisions and alliances. Old wounds are reopened with each new crisis, and the past refuses to be buried.

The Risk of Another War of Revenge

Today, rumours of renewed collaboration between TPLF and Shabia remnants are circulating inside Ethiopia and among the diaspora. While officially denied, the possibility alone is enough to inflame old hatreds. Any perceived alliance between these two forces will not be interpreted merely as a political manoeuvre but as a revival of the 1991 betrayal.

If such an alliance materialises or even gains momentum, the response from within Ethiopia could be catastrophic. Forces within the military, intelligence, and even civilian spheres, many of whom still harbour deep resentment, may pursue a war of revenge, ot a strategic war, but an emotionally charged conflict aimed at erasing what they see as decades of humiliation and betrayal. The conflict could draw in various factions, from Oromo nationalists seeking justice for the OLF, former Derg loyalists wanting retribution, and diaspora elements funding a final reckoning with Shabia and Woyane.

Conclusion: Reconciliation or Ruin?

Ethiopia today stands at a dangerous crossroads. Without a genuine national reconciliation process where historical truths are acknowledged, injustices addressed, and collective healing pursued, the country risks a vicious cycle of revenge and retribution. The legacy of Isaias Afwerki and the TPLF is not just one of military conquest—it is a legacy of wounded pride, shattered careers, and political betrayal that continues reverberating through generations.

Should these old actors unite again, even temporarily, they will unleash political and emotional consequences, unleashing a war that will not be fought only on the battlefield but in the hearts of millions. Ethiopia must choose whether it will be a nation of the past, defined by revenge, or a nation of the future, committed to justice and healing.

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Footnote:

• Derg: The Marxist-Leninist military junta that ruled Ethiopia from 1974 to 1991.
• TPLF: Tigray People’s Liberation Front, dominant force in the EPRDF coalition post-1991.
• Shabia (EPLF): Eritrean People's Liberation Front, led Eritrea to independence.
• OLF: Oromo Liberation Front, initially part of the post-1991 transitional government before being sidelined and suppressed.