Thursday, July 31, 2025

Ethiopia’s Glass: Half Full, Half Empty — A Nation at the Crossroads

🇪🇹 Ethiopia’s Glass: Half Full, Half Empty — A Nation at the Crossroads

By Habtamu Nini Abino
July 31, 2025

In the discourse of development, democracy, and national identity, few metaphors capture the Ethiopian dilemma more accurately than the proverbial question: Is the glass half full or half empty? This simple analogy — often used to reveal a person’s optimism or pessimism — has profound relevance for a country like Ethiopia, where promise and peril constantly coexist.

Ethiopia is undoubtedly half full with a population exceeding 120 million, abundant natural resources, and a strategic location in the Horn of Africa. Yet, deep-rooted ethnic divisions, fragile institutions, chronic instability, and persistent poverty remind us that the glass is also half empty. The question is not which view is correct but which mindset will guide Ethiopia’s political future.

The Half Full Ethiopia: A Country of Potential

To speak of Ethiopia as "half full" is not delusion; it is reality. Despite regional tensions, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) symbolises national pride and technological progress. The country's expanding road and energy infrastructure, the growing urban middle class, and the resilience of its youth offer real hope.

Furthermore, Ethiopia’s constitutional framework — with its federalist structure and commitment to self-rule — was once hailed as a bold experiment in managing diversity. In theory, it granted historically marginalised groups the right to self-govern, preserve culture, and share power within a unified state. It was an African attempt at inclusive governance.

These achievements represent the water in the glass — hard-earned, precious, and real.

The Half Empty Ethiopia: A State in Perpetual Crisis

But the other half — the empty part—can not be ignored. Ethiopia has not seen a year without significant conflict in over a decade. From Tigray to Oromia to Amhara, the federal compact has eroded into suspicion, rebellion, and bloodshed. The dream of unity in diversity has been replaced by zero-sum politics, where one group’s gain is another’s fear.

The Prosperity Party’s centralising ambitions and the remnants of EPRDF-era authoritarianism have undermined democratic transition. Institutions remain weak, elections contested, and dialogue replaced with drones and repression. Federalism, once seen as a solution, is now weaponised to fragment or dominate, depending on who holds power.

The glass is empty of political violence, economic dislocation, brain drain, and a growing loss of national confidence.

Beyond Optimism or Pessimism: Toward National Realism

The danger lies in choosing only one view.

Those who see Ethiopia as only half full often fall into denialism, claiming, “We are on the right path,” even as civil war erupts. Conversely, those who see only emptiness lose all faith in reform, becoming nihilistic or isolationist.

Ethiopia needs national realism: the courage to acknowledge failure and the wisdom to build on strengths. Realism means recognising that constitutional reform is necessary, not to erase the federal principle, but to ensure that it delivers autonomy and accountability. It means empowering institutions that are above ethnicity and beyond ideology.

It also means building a culture of shared sacrifice rather than perpetual grievance. The question must move from “What has my group gained or lost?” to “How do we fill the rest of the glass — together?”

Conclusion: The Political Future of a Divided Nation

Ethiopia is neither a failed state nor a functioning democracy. It is a fragile republic standing on a battlefield between history and hope. The half-full part of the Ethiopian glass reminds us of what is possible; the half-empty part warns us of what may come if we continue on the current trajectory.

The glass is there. It holds both pain and promise. The time has come not to argue about its fullness or emptiness — but to decide, as a nation, how to fill it with justice, peace, and shared prosperity.

Habtamu Nini Abino is a legal scholar, author, and former Ethiopian House of Federation secretary general. He regularly writes on constitutional law, federalism, and governance in Africa.


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