Memorandum to the Government of Ethiopia Subject: Strategic Diplomatic Positioning in Response to Potential U.S. Policy Shifts under Donald Trump

Memorandum to the Government of Ethiopia

Subject: Strategic Diplomatic Positioning in Response to Potential U.S. Policy Shifts under Donald Trump

To:

Office of the Prime Minister, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS)

Ethiopian Immigration and Citizenship Services

House of Peoples’ Representatives – Foreign Affairs Standing Committee

From:

[Confidential Policy Advisor / Independent Strategic Analyst]

Date: July 23, 2025

Re: A Strategic Proposal to Pre-empt U.S. Immigration Pressure and Reposition Ethiopia as a Key Ally

Executive Summary:

In light of Donald Trump's anticipated return to the U.S. presidency and his well-documented hardline stance on immigration and foreign diplomacy, this memorandum proposes a proactive and brilliant diplomatic manoeuvre for the Ethiopian government. Rather than being caught off guard by pressure to accept Gaza resettlements or face diplomatic cold-shouldering, Ethiopia should offer an alternative humanitarian gesture: the voluntary intake of a manageable number of African-origin migrants currently in the U.S. illegally.

This strategic move could achieve three objectives:

1. Shield Ethiopia from any retaliatory rhetoric by Trump related to the Red Sea, Israel, or Gaza resettlement politics.

2. Position Ethiopia as a problem-solver and reliable regional partner aligned with U.S. interests, especially in migration and security.

3. Leverage this goodwill to negotiate economic incentives, security partnerships, and potential debt relief from the United States.

Background:

With U.S. domestic policy trending toward hardline deportation under Trump’s potential leadership, countries that fail to cooperate may be subject to political or economic pressure. Ethiopia has been under increasing scrutiny due to its position on the Red Sea, GERD, and internal instability.

While accepting Gaza settlers is ethically and politically risky for Ethiopia, offering a controlled intake of African-origin irregular migrants already within U.S. borders provides an alternative that:

Aligns with pan-African solidarity,

Avoids religious/ethnic tension at home,

And demonstrates goodwill toward Washington.

Proposal:

1. Publicly Frame the Offer Around Pan-Africanism and Shared Responsibility:

Emphasise that Ethiopia is responding to the humanitarian need to help African victims of global displacement.

Avoid making the offer look like a U.S.-dictated obligation.

2. Limit the Number and Scope:

Propose a symbolic number (e.g., 2,000–5,000 individuals annually).

Focus on returnees screened by the U.S. system and from neighbouring regions (Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, etc.).

3. Demand Economic Offsets:

Request development aid, direct budget support, or infrastructure investment in return.

Use Canada’s refugee sponsorship model as a precedent.

4. Avoid Engagement on Gaza Directly:

Politely deflect any inquiries related to Gaza by stating Ethiopia's principle of non-alignment in Middle East internal affairs while reinforcing Ethiopia’s role as a humanitarian host for African refugees.

Strategic Messaging:

If framed correctly, the Prime Minister can state publicly:

 “While Ethiopia remains committed to peace in the Middle East, our moral and historic obligation is to our African brothers and sisters. We are open to assisting in regional stabilisation efforts, including humanitarian cooperation where feasible.”

Risks and Mitigations:

Risk Mitigation

Domestic backlash over foreign refugees. Limit intake to fellow Africans; use developmental funds to benefit local host communities

Perception of submission to the U.S. Frame the offer as proactive and Afrocentric

Resentment from Arab or Palestinian factions. Maintain apparent neutrality on Middle East politics

Long-term burden Demand short-term agreements with exit strategies if domestic capacity is overwhelmed

Conclusion:

If executed diplomatically and with full inter-agency coordination, this strategic move can neutralise potential Trump-era threats while leveraging Ethiopia’s position for economic benefit. It is neither surrender nor blind compliance, but rather a pragmatic repositioning in a volatile global order.

Recommended Action:

Initiate confidential backchannel talks with U.S. diplomats in Addis Ababa and Washington.

Convene an inter-ministerial committee on refugee integration and economic negotiation.

Prepare a white paper to present at AU or IGAD as a pilot continental strategy.

Prepared By:

[Your Name]

Policy and Strategy Consultant

[Contact Info – if needed]