Introduction
With its ancient civilisation and diverse peoples, Ethiopia has long been considered a unique African state that has never been formally colonised and is rich in history. Yet beneath this legacy lies a deep-rooted political crisis. Ethiopia has been trapped in a cycle of authoritarianism, exclusionary politics, and survivalist governance for much of its modern history. The assertion that “Ethiopia’s politics is unscientific and a politics of survival, where the powerful take all” reflects a reality deeply embedded in its political culture. This essay argues that unless foundational changes are made, Ethiopia will unlikely witness true democracy and good governance—even in the next 100 years.
I. The Nature of Ethiopia’s Political Culture
Ethiopian politics has historically revolved around zero-sum competition. Power is viewed not as a public trust, but as a prize to be won and monopolised. The winner dominates, the loser is excluded and often persecuted. This pattern was present under imperial rule (Haile Selassie), socialist dictatorship (Mengistu Haile Mariam), and ethnic federalism (EPRDF and beyond).
The political culture lacks the scientific foundations of modern governance, meaning it lacks transparent institutions, predictable laws, accountability mechanisms, and evidence-based policymaking. Instead, personal loyalty, ethnic favouritism, and force determine who rules and how resources are allocated.
II. Politics of Survival: The Root of Authoritarianism
In Ethiopia, losing political power often means losing personal security, property, and life. This high-stakes environment creates a “politics of survival,” where rulers prioritise short-term control over long-term nation-building. They:
Suppress dissent through imprisonment, censorship, or military action.
Exploit ethnic divisions to weaken opposition and consolidate loyalty.
Manipulate elections not to gain legitimacy, but to maintain dominance.
Centralise power in the executive, ignoring judicial independence or parliamentary oversight.
This political logic is self-reinforcing. It leads to instability, rebellion, and regime collapse, which is followed by another group using the same tactics to cling to power.
III. Ethiopia’s Democratic Illusions
There have been moments of hope in Ethiopia’s political journey—transitional periods in 1991 (post-Derg) and 2018 (Abiy Ahmed’s rise). Each promised reform, democracy, and reconciliation. Yet both turned into renewed authoritarianism.
The reason lies in the absence of:
Independent institutions that can resist executive overreach.
Genuine federalism that respects the autonomy of nations and nationalities.
Civic education and democratic culture among elites and the public.
The rule of law protects minority rights and punishes abuse.
Without these foundations, elections become rituals, constitutions become manipulation tools, and democracy becomes a façade.
IV. The Next 100 Years: Why the Cycle May Persist
Assuming current trends continue, Ethiopia will unlikely achieve genuine democracy in the coming century. The reasons include:
1. Deep structural inequality – wealth, education, and power are concentrated among a few groups.
2. Militarised politics – the reliance on armed groups and security forces to resolve disputes.
3. Ethno-nationalist polarisation – making consensus-building nearly impossible.
4. Youth alienation – a rising generation that sees no future in peaceful politics.
5. External manipulation: Foreign powers support regimes that serve their interests, not democratic norms.
Even if one group attempts reform, the political culture often swallows them into the same patterns. The cycle will repeat without a radical rethinking of state structure and political philosophy.
V. Is There Hope? Conditions for Change
While pessimism is justified, political outcomes are not fixed. To break the cycle, Ethiopia would need:
A new social contract recognising the equality and self-determination of all nations and peoples within Ethiopia.
Independent institutions are protected from partisan capture.
Truth and reconciliation processes to address historical grievances.
A shift from survivalist politics to service-based leadership, emphasising competence over loyalty.
These changes, however, require leadership, sustained grassroots pressure, and international support aligned with democratic values.
Conclusion
Ethiopia’s political history is a cautionary tale of how the absence of scientific governance and democratic culture can trap a nation in endless cycles of conflict and repression. The current political model—winner-takes-all, power-at-any-cost—is unsustainable and corrosive. Without fundamental transformation, the next century may mirror the last: promises made, hopes dashed, and power seized in the name of survival. True democracy and good governance will remain a distant dream unless Ethiopia reinvents the very foundation of its statehood.
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