Diina moo Fira: Bu'uura Geopolitikaa fi Wal-Waalessuu Gaanfa Afriikaa
Waldiddaan Gaanfa Afriikaa keessatti mul'atu yeroo baay'ee hariiroo diinummaa fi firummaa isa dhugaa irratti osoo hin taane, dantaa yeroo fi shira paartilee bulchanii irratti hundaa'a. Gaaffiin guddaan ka'u, hariiroon humnoota naannichaa—keessattuu TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front) fi Shaabiyaa (Eertiraa/PFDJ) gidduu jiru—"waahillummaa" (alliance) dantaa dhuunfaa fi naannoo irratti hundaa'e dhaa, moo "wal-waalessuu" (manipulation/instrumentalism) yeroof walitti isaan hirkisudha kan jedhudha. Akka xiinxala kanatti, dantaan siyaasaa fi waraanaa humnoota kanaa yeroo tokko walitti isaan dhiyeessaa, yeroo biraa ammoo diina wal-nyaatu walitti isaan taasisa.
TPLF daggala jiru kaasee karoorri isaa inni guddaan ifa ture: yoo danda'ame federaalizimii sab-daneessaa Itoophiyaa keessatti diriirsuun humna ol'aanaa qabaachuu; yoo dadhabame ammoo naannoo Tigraay kan mootummaa federaalaaf hin ajajmne (de facto state) uummachuun, dhumarra gara biyya walabaa (independent state) fottoquutti ce'uudha. Karoorri kun maniifastoo TPLF kan bara 1976 irraa kaasee kan labsamee fi hanga ammaatti giddu-galeessummaa yaada TPLF kan hin jijjiiramne ta'ee tajaajilaa jira. Waliigalteen Nageenyaa Pretoriyaa kan bara 2022 waraana kaaba Itoophiyaa yeroof dhaabus, kaayyoo bu'uuraa TPLF kana hin jijjiirre; caalattuu dhiphina waraana boodaa keessatti yaada kana deebisanii jabeessuuf carraaqqii taasisaa jiru.
Karoora TPLF fi Tooftaa "Akka Feete Haa Taatu" kan Abiy Ahmed
Ilaalchi Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed fi Mootummaa Federaalaa Itoophiyaa Tigraay irratti qaban karoorawwan lama irratti hundaa'a:
Karoora Inni Jalqabaa: Humna waraanaafi siyaasaa TPLF guutummaatti balleessee, Tigraayiin akkuma naannolee biraa fedhii mootummaa giddu-galeessaatiin bulchuu.
Karoora Inni Lammaffaa (Fallback Option): Yoo TPLF balleessuun danda'amuu baate, "akka feete haa taatu" jedhanii dhiisuu, tajaajila gargaarsaa fi bajataa cutuun daangessuu dha.
Tooftaan "akka feete haa taatu" jedhanii dhiisuu kun gama tokkoon TPLF irratti dhiibbaa uumee dadhabsiisuuf kan karoorfame yoo ta'u, gama biraatiin garuu milkaa'ina karoora TPLF isa dhoktaaf haala mijeessa. Yeroo mootummaan federaalaa naannichaa gargaarsaa fi beekamtii dhowwatu, TPLF uummata Tigraay biratti "mootummaan federaalaa nu tuffateera ykn nu irratti duulaa jira" yaada jedhu uumuun, bulchiinsa of-danda'e (de facto state) uumee dhumarra fottoquuf yaada jiru akka salphaatti uummata biratti fudhatama akka argatu taasisa.
Mootummaan Abiy Ahmed dhimma kana gadi fageenyaan hubachuun, bara 2024 hanga 2026tti, factionalism keessoo TPLF uumuun paarticha dadhabsiisuutti xiyyeeffateera. Waldiddaan TPLF keessatti uumamee factionii Debretsion Gebremichael (old guard) fi Getachew Reda (kan federaalaan deeggaramu) gidduutti uumame humna naannichaa addaan qoodeera. Eebila 2026 keessa, TPLF factioniin Debretsion, unka Pretoriyaa diiguun, Mana Maree Naannoo (State Council) kan bara 2020 deebisee ijaaruun Debretsion Gebremichael perezidaantii naannichaa taasisee muudeera. Adeemsi kun mootummaa Abiy fi TPLF osoo hin mari'atin dhoksaatti "akka feete haa taatu" jedhanii wal-dhiisuu irraan kan ka'e, Tigraay gara de facto state guutuutti akka geessu taasiseera.
Adeemsa Waldiddaa fi Ce'umsa Aangoo Tigraay (2020–2026)
Waggaa
Gochaa Siyaasaa fi Ce'umsa Aangoo
Implikaashinii Geopolitikaa Isaa
Sadaasa 2022
Waliigalteen Pretoriyaa (CoHA) mallatteeffame; TIA (Tigray Interim Administration) hundeeffame.
Waraanni kaabaa dhaabate; TPLF meeshaa waraanaa gurguddaa dabarsee kenne.
Bara 2024
Factionalism keessoo TPLF bahee mul'ate; Debretsion fi Getachew Reda walitti bu'an.
TPLF bakka lamatti cite; deeggartoonni Getachew mootummaa federaalaatti dhiyaatan.
Maayii 2025
NEBE (National Election Board of Ethiopia) beekamtii paartummaa TPLF dhowwate.
TPLF filannoo bara 2026 keessatti hirmaachuu akka hin dandeenye dhorkame.
Eebila 2026
Mootummaan federaalaa mudama TIA kan Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede waggaa tokkoof dheeresse.
TPLF mudama kana "seeraan alaa" jedhee kuffise; Pretoriyaan diigamuu labse.
Caamsaa 5, 2026
Mana Maree Naannoo waraana duraa (2020) deebisanii ijaaruun, Debretsion perezidaantii naannichaa ta'ee filatame.
Parallel government (Mootummaan lama) Tigraay keessatti uumame; yaaddoon waraanaa deebi'ee ka'e.
Tooftaa Shaabiyaa: TPLF akka Waalessituutti Fayyadamuu
Shaabiyaan (Eertiraa) seenaa isaa guutuu keessatti TPLF akka "waahila" (equal partner) sirriitti fudhatee hin beeku. Kanaafuu, dantaa isaa guuttachuuf yeroo mara akka "waalessituu" (junior partner ykn meeshaa tooftaa) malee akka hiriyyaatti isaan hin ilaalu. Tooftaan kun daggala irraa eegalee kan hojjachaa jiru yoo ta'u, ragaaleen armaan gadii dhimma kana ni dhugoomsu:
Kuffiinsa Dargii: Shaabiyaan waraana daggalaa keessatti TPLF dantaa ofii isaatii, jechuunis bilisummaa Eertiraa mirkaneessuuf, akka meeshaatti itti fayyadamee waraana Dargii kuffiseera.
Mootummaa Abiy Ahmed Of-irraa Qolachuu (2025–2026): Erga waraanni Pretoriyaan xumuramee booda, hariiroon Abiy Ahmed fi Isaias Afwerki sababa dhimma portii fi karaa galaanaa irratti laafee diigameera. Kanaan kan ka'e, Shaabiyaan factionii Debretsion kan TPLF wajjiin "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" yaada jedhuun, dantaa ofii isaaf mootummaa Abiy dadhabsiisuuf ammas TPLF akka meeshaatti itti fayyadamaa jira.
Karoorri TPLF fi Abiy Ahmed osoo irratti hin mari'atin "akka feete haa taatu" jedhanii wal-dhiisuun Tigraay of-dandeettee akka ijaaramtu taasisu kun Shaabiyaaf abjuu hirribaa dhowwudha. Shaabiyaan naannoo Gaanfa Afriikaa keessatti Itoophiyaa dadhabduu fi bittinnaadduu barbaada malee, Tigraay of dandeettee, jabaattee fi bilisa taate ollaa isaa irratti uumamuu ishee gonkumaa hin fedhu.
Eenyummaa Biyyooleessa Eertiraa ("Ertirummaa") fi Sodaa Tigraay Of-Dandeettee
Sababiin Shaabiyaan Tigraay of-dandeettee akka biyyaatti ijaaramtu hin feeneef gadi fageenya eenyummaa biyyoolessaa Eertiraa (Ertirummaa) keessa jira. Eenyummaan biyyoolessaa Eertiraa waa lama irratti hundaa'ee ijaarama:
Itoophiyaa akka diina sabaatti ijaaruu (Anti-Ethiopianism): Eertirummaan akka sab-boonummaatti kan dhufe waraana waggaa 30 Itoophiyaa wajjiin taasifame keessatti uummata walitti qabuun, Itoophiyaa akka sodaa fi diina sabaatti ilaaluu irratti.
Sab-boonummaa Gosaa fi Amantaa Dadhabsiisuu: Eertiraan biyya saba fi amantaa garagaraa qabdu ta'us, PFDJ eenyummaa saba dhuunfaa (sub-national identities) dhabamsiisuun, eenyummaa tokkoo fi ol'aanaa kan "Ertirummaa" jedhu qofa ijaaruu fedha.
Eenyummaan (identity) warri Eertiraa ijaaraa jiraniif kan Tigroonni Itoophiyaa keessatti ijaaraa turan guutummaatti wal-faallessa. Itoophiyaan federaalizimii sab-daneessaa (multinational federalism) heera mootummaa ishee keessatti mirga sabaaf sab-lammootaa yoo leelliftu, Eertiraan garuu sirna unitarism fi assimilationist hordoftee eenyummaa saba dhuunfaa ni dhabamsiisti.
Biyyi Tigraay jedhamtu bilisummaan ollaa Eertiraatti hundeeffamuun madaala eenyummaa Eertiraa keessaa jiru balaarra buusa. Fakkeenyaaf, warri Eertiraa keessatti Afaan Tigrinya dubbatan (highlanders) jabaatanii, sab-boonummaa sabaa kanaan kaka'uun, saboota Eertiraa kaawwan irratti dhiibbaa uumuu danda'u. Kun ammoo deemee deemee Eertiraa keessatti walitti bu'iinsa sabootaa fi amantaalee garagaraa uuma. Shaabiyaan kana waan beekuuf, pirezidaantiin Isaias Afwerki yeroo mara heera mootummaa Itoophiyaa fi eenyummaa sab-daneessaa ishee qeeqa, unka sabsabootaa akka dhibee naannichaatti agarsiisa.
Faallaa Ag'aaziyan fi Madaallii Humna Namaa, Demogiraafii fi Diinagdee
Eertiraan Tigraay wajjiin biyya tokko ta'uun "Ag'aaziyan" (Agazian Movement) jedhamu ijaaruu hin feetu. Yaanni Ag'aaziyan jedhu kan warri Tigraay fi namoonni Eertiraa tokko tokko leellisan, saba Afaan Tigrinya dubbatu fi Orthodox Christian ta'an walitti makuun döminant state ijaaruu irratti xiyyeeffata. Eertiraan yaada kana guutummaatti ni fashaleessiti sababoota armaan gadii irraan kan ka'e:
1. Faayidaa Diinagdee, Aadaa fi Seenaa Dhabamuu
Gama diinagdee, aadaa fi seenaatiin wanti Tigraay Eertiraaf dabalattu hin jiru. Eertiraan karaa galaanaa fi buufata doonii qabdi; Tigraay garuu lafa dhiphoo fi qonna duubatti hafe qofa waan qabduuf, madda ba'aa diinagdee malee faayidaa hin dabalattu.
2. Ol'aantummaa Humna Namaa fi Demogiraafii Tigraay
Ummanni Tigraay uummata Eertiraa caalaa humna nama baratee (human capital) horatee jira, akkasumas humna diinagdee jabaataa qabu. Demogiraafidhaan Eertiraan biyya "nama dulloomeeti". Sabsaba tajaajila waraanaa daangaa hin qabneen (Sawa military service) dargaggoonni Eertiraa biyyaa baqachaa jiru, kanaan kan ka'e uummata jiddu-galeessaa fi maanguddoo qofatu biyyattiitti hafe. Tigraay garuu biyya dargaggeessati, uummata jabaa fi waraana dandamatu qabdi. Biyyoonni kun lamaan yoo walitti makaman, humni Tigraay salphaatti biyya "haarawa" ijaaramu keessatti harka ol'aanaa qabaata. Kun ammoo elites Shaabiyaaf abjuu hirriba nama dhoowwu ta'a.
Madaallii Demogiraafii, Diinagdee fi Humna Namaa (2025/2026)
Kallattii Madaallii
Eertiraa (PFDJ)
Naannoo Tigraay (TPLF)
Baay'ina Uummataa
Miiliyoona 3.6 - 3.8
Miiliyoona 7.4 (Raya & Wolkait dabalatee)
Giddu-galeessa Umrii
Waggaa 19.5 - 20.5
Waggaa 20.3 (Itoophiyaa keessatti)
Rifama Demogiraafii
Dulloomaa deemaa jira (Sawa jalaa baqattummaa)
Humna dargaggeessaa fi waraanaa baay'ee
Humna Nama Baratee
Laafaa dhaa (Brain drain daka deemera)
Jabaa dhaa (Akademikoota fi waraana baratan)
Portii fi Seaport Access
Buufata doonii Massawa fi Assab qaba
Lafa dhiphoo, landlocked ta'ee jira
Madda Diinagdee
Maallaqa diaspora (2% tax) fi Mining
Qonna, gargaarsa alaa fi daldala daangaa
Shira Geopolitikaa: Maxirabiyaa fi Tooftaa Diina Diina Koo
Akka yaada Prime Minister Abiy Ahmeditti, TPLF paartii "maxirabiyaa" (axe handle / proxy) dantaa alaa tajaajilu qofadha. Garuu xiinxalli geopolitikaa akka agarsiisutti, TPLF qofaa miti "maxirabiyaa" kan ta'e. Shaabiyaanis muka "maxirabiyaa" ti. Innis akka jedhutti nama "fiqiriin" ykn jaalalli Tigraay hirriba isa dhoowwee miti kan inni Debretsion deeggaruuf. Shaabiyaan dantaa ofii isaaf, jechuunis weerara Itoophiyaa irraa dhuufuu danda'u ittisuuf, fi dantaa Egypt fi Somalia wajjiin qabuun Itoophiyaa qaamaan nagaa dhowwuuf, TPLF akka "maxirabiyaatti" (proxy) gargaaramaa jira.
Waraanni Gaanfa Afriikaa keessatti ka'uuf deemu kun kan irratti hirmaatan hundi isaanii dantaa dhuunfaa fi shira ofii isaanii irratti hundaa'uun "wal-waalessuu" (instrumentalist proxy politics) akka meeshaatti gargaaramu. TPLF mootummaa federaalaa jalaa milquuf Shaabiyaa akka waahilaatti fayyadamuu fedha; Shaabiyaan ammoo Abiy kuffisuuf ykn dadhabsiisuuf TPLF akka meeshaa waraanaatti ("waalessituu") gargaarama. Adeemsi kun madaala siyaasaa naannichaa garmalee kan diiguu fi nagaa Gaanfa Afriikaa balaarra kan buusudha.
Xumura Gabaasaa
Xiinxalli hariiroo TPLF, Shaabiyaa fi Mootummaa Federaalaa Itoophiyaa madaallii geopolitikaa armaan gadii irratti nu gessa:
Hariiroon TPLF fi Shaabiyaa amanamummaa fi firummaa dhuunfaa irratti osoo hin taane, shira yeroof "diina diina koo waahila kooti" jedhu irratti kan ijaarameedha.
Karoorri TPLF kan de facto state uumuu fi fottoquu heera mootummaa Itoophiyaa Keewwata 39 irratti hirkatus, dhiibbaa fi dhiisuu ("let it be") bulchiinsa Abiy Ahmed irraan kan ka'e jabaachaa deemeera.
Eertiraan sababa eenyummaa biyyoolessaa ishee (Ertirummaa) eeggachuuf qofaaf Tigraay bilisa taate hin feetu, sababiin isaa sabsaboota Eertiraa keessaa waan diiguuf.
Dhumarratti, dantaan siyaasaa, demogiraafii fi humna namaa madaallii jiruun, Tigraay of dandeettee ijaaramuun Eertiraaf sodaa guddaa waan ta'eef, waldiddaan humnoota kana gidduu jiru gara fuulduraattis babal'achaa deema malee furmaata waaraa hin argatu.
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